Trip Handicapping (Live)

[traynor]

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by traynor

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.

What were the internal fractions and the final time of the race?

To properly analyze a race you need them. Was it a killing pace up front and if it was, that 3rd place finish may not that be that impressive. If it was a slow pace with a very fast last quarter I would definitely look at the stretch length gains to properly assess the the effort of the said horse.

Its a game of fractions folks.

[mrroyboy]

Yes replays with fractional analyses is the key

[harness2008]

Well said Biscuit. Any horse that lays off of a faster than par first half to three quarters would be expected to gain in the slower last portion. Seeing that the horse was an extreme longshot to begin with, this would really be the only plausible way for a horse like this to get a piece of the pie.

Not nitpicking what you stated traynor, but if this horse ran against the grain so to speak by having to tip into a faster last portion of the race, then by all means he deserves all of the kudos that you stated but without an assessment of the fractions involved, trip handicapping by itself is rendered useless.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by mrroyboy

Yes replays with fractional analyses is the key

I just saw the replay. The fractions were

28.2-57.2-126.1-154.4

It was a pretty even pace with a mediocre first qtr. He was 3rd over in the outer flow but I failed to see the 'big move' to get him 3rd which Traynor mentioned. It was a good effort but nothing to write home about.

Here is the replay. Click on Mar 20 and then 2nd race

http://replays.robertsstream.com/rac...78d67c1804b4ee

[bigeastbeast]

Wouldn't you rather have a horse that made two moves in the race:A horse with the early speed to get up in the race early,get knocked backward for whatever reason,then finish with vigor?

[traynor]

I'm not selling anything. It looked good. I mentioned it. Nothing more.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by traynor

To understand why trip handicappers generally smile when people advocate watching video replays--regardless of how many times or how closely--watch the second race at Dover Downs today (3/20).

In particular, keep your eye on #7 WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ. Went off at 26/1 and ran an incredible race. Off slow from the outside, dead last, a major move late to finish a fast closing third. $11.20 to show will give you some idea how few thought WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ even had a shot at a piece of the prize.

Hard to do? Yes, indeed. Almost never in the picture until close to the wire, and then only briefly. Something that trip handicappers would hug themsleves with sheer joy at seeing--knowing that the "video" crowd saw little or nothing.

Keep your eyes on WISHUPONTHESTARZZZ in its next race.

Yep...pulled 3/8ths. Flushed cover in CH turn. Parked back stretch. Evenly to wire.
Looked to me like the driver had a bunch of horse.
The winner appeared to be much the best. Driver high lined him for the last 100 yards. No whip needed.
Tell ya what....The #2 Dancing Cruiser got a terrible trip. The 4 spat out the bit at the half and Tetrick( one of the nation's leading drivers) had to hit the brakes.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

What were the internal fractions and the final time of the race?

To properly analyze a race you need them. Was it a killing pace up front and if it was, that 3rd place finish may not that be that impressive. If it was a slow pace with a very fast last quarter I would definitely look at the stretch length gains to properly assess the the effort of the said horse.

Its a game of fractions folks.

57.4 middle half

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by thespaah

57.4 middle half

The best mile made that day was by Peachys Pistol in the 6th.

He should repeat.

[traynor]

There may be a bit of a lesson here for those who believe they already know everything they need to know about trip handicapping from watching videos and crunching numbers.

Apparently, others noted Wishuponthestarzzz in sufficient numbers to make it 5-2 in the morning line at Philadelphia, despite a big jump up in purse size, but the "smart money" went on Onesportonly. Wishuponthestarzzz was 14-1 at 25 minutes to post, and Onesportonly followed the "smooth" line indicated elsewhere that is indicative of computer-assisted wagering. The payoff on Onesportonly was much better than it would have been if fewer had considered Wishuponthestarzz a "BNT" (Bet Next Time) choice indicative of simplistic, wannabe trip handicappers.

Wishuponthe starzz performed well, nothing impressive, especially for an entry that gave every indication it could win easily. Perhaps not in a race in which it goes off at 3-1, and perhaps not in a race where the smart money is on another entry. No chicanery is suggested or implied--this is business, plain and simple.

I am curious to see how Wishuponthestarzz will do next time out. I didn't bet it in the Philadelphia race because I have learned to treat those computer-assisted wagering app selections with great respect. I didn't see anything impressive about Onesportonly, so passed. I still think Wishuponthestarzzz has the makings of buying lunch at Bellagio's.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by traynor

I am curious to see how Wishuponthestarzz will do next time out.

Ran flat again to come 4th by 3 3/4 lengths at $5.90-1.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

The best mile made that day was by Peachys Pistol in the 6th.

He should repeat.

I can't understand why Peachys Pistol has not been entered to race since his Mar 20 romp.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

I can't understand why Peachys Pistol has not been entered to race since his Mar 20 romp.

Mar272014,DD,R08 Finished 7th.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by traynor

Mar272014,DD,R08 Finished 7th.

Hmmm. I had Peachys Pistol in my VS stable and it failed to inform me on race day. Prolly some computer glich.