TrackMaster contest this month

[harness2008]

I agree HWIG, but why put them in there to begin with is my question. A discrepancy of this type obviously has to do with the fact that these are state fair races and thus any fig earned in this type of venue may be considered suspect due to a lack of volume of races needed to establish a good figure, but you can also find some weaknesses in everyday tracks in North America too. A few speed points here and there I can deal with, but not a 4 or 5 second difference

[HWIG]

Originally Posted by harness2008

I agree HWIG, but why put them in there to begin with is my question. A discrepancy of this type obviously has to do with the fact that these are state fair races and thus any fig earned in this type of venue may be considered suspect due to a lack of volume of races needed to establish a good figure, but you can also find some weaknesses in everyday tracks in North America too. A few speed points here and there I can deal with, but not a 4 or 5 second difference

Springfield used to be a real speed burner. I have not followed Illinois racing for awhile, but the quality of racing stock has really deteriorated in recent years. Just look at the entries at Maywood and Balmoral and lot of other tracks, all you find is non winner lifetime races. Speed rating should only be one factor in your handicap. The average race goer only knows best time, that horse will usually be the favorite. Knowing a bad favorite is a key to winning.....

[harness2008]

Without a doubt, it was just a red flag for me when I was perusing the lines, I personally delve more deeply into it besides just taking a look at the speed fig. The casual racegoer may on the other hand would have no idea how to decipher this.

[harness2008]

I didnt involve myself this week in the contest but I'll be playing these three races today at Balmoral.

1st race # BRING IT ALL

2nd race # LENOX BLUE CHIP

3rd race # ALEQUASH HOTSPUR

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by harness2008

IA discrepancy of this type obviously has to do with the fact that these are state fair races and thus any fig earned in this type of venue may be considered suspect due to a lack of volume of races needed to establish a good figure,.........

That is why I usually don't even pay attention to the speed ratings for "Fair Tracks" , not to mention not even some "regular tracks" ,as well...In fact, when I think long and hard about it, I don't even pay much attention to speed ratings at all in my handicapping, as the way I assess the meaningful time slices of a race, it makes it plain enough to me, how fast or slow they may have been going, speed rating or not.....

I have found that certain track to track speed ratings, when compared, are quite unreliable at times....Especially when a horse is going from a 1/2 miler to a bigger track....I do not know why that is, tho....I just don't use SR's much in my handicapping, and I don't think it has kost me much, if any, kash lately, so I keep it that way....Meaining when I lose a bet, I would always be hard pressed to believe that it was the SR that made the difference....I catch nice winners, beating better S-Rated horses, all the time...

[EdZone]

Two of my picks scratch. Beware if your horse scratch, you win nothing as it won't pay your money back.

[David Siegel]

I wanted to give a quick reply to the well-written comment about the Speed Ratings for a horse named Monopoly Man that were much lower in two Springfield races, than recent Balmoral Races. The horse had been racing in the mid-80s at Bmlp (with a high of 90) and dropped to 63 and 67 at Springfield on 8/15 and 8/10. He then came back to Balmoral and ran a 76 on 8/31. The main explanation is that the particular races he was in at Springfield were really slow relative to the rest of the day at that track. If the entire day was slow, our track variant process would have accounted for that. We can never know for sure if the field ran particularly slow due to a very weak or controlled pace, or if the track crew did something for that one race (when the do something over a number of races, we can measure that). In this case, look at the race AFTER the "slow" race 11, and this explains what went in, at least in part. The 11th was for 3 year olds and went in 1:53.4 The next race (under a fast track as well) for 2 year olds went in 1:50.0. The race went a whopping 19 speed rating points faster and for 2-year olds! Speed ratings are not prefect, but they are pretty good overall and my guess in this case was that the 11th race just happened to unfold slowly. On top of that it was likely that Monopoly Man was just losing form, as his next was a 76 or say 12 points faster than at Springfield. So this is a 2-3 second explanation and based on the time for the race on 8/15 relative to the race after, is plausible. I spent time to make sure our process worked as it should, and it did. We can never get variants perfect as we cannot know what a crew may due race to race. We look at the day in its entirety to assign variants to each race. This is why we coach people to look at 5-10 recent Speed Ratings and use those as the best indicator of a horses typical ability.

There is a ton that goes into making Speed Ratings. There is a detailed, 30 minute tutorial on what we do: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGGJdHX4dpQ. There is more on our web site and I am happy to answer questions as well.

I tried to attach the charts from the 2 races I have referred to and hopefully it shows up.

[EdZone]

Saturday, September 7

Pocono Downs......R1....2 Stonebridge Cowboy 5/1
Pocono Downs......R7....6 Competition Cam 15/1
Pocono Downs......R13..8 Alsacd Hanover 4/1
Yonkers Raceway..R2...2 Panda Bear 10/1
Yonkers Raceway..R5...4 Rollwithharry 10/1

[Ray2000]

Saturday 9/7


Race #12 at Pocono Downs #4 SOME LIKE IT HOT for $100
Race #14 at Pocono Downs #4 UNCLE GOODFELLOW for $100
Race #3 at Yonkers Raceway #2 THESEYESRCRYING for $100
Race #9 at Yonkers Raceway #2 PANCETTA for $100
Race #15 at Pocono Downs #4 ARSENAL for $100

GLA

[mrroyboy]

Thank you Dave. Good to know you stand by your product

[tiger rose]

my last stab

Y 3 #6 Rockstar Temper
Y 5 #3 Lyons Joesph Jnr
Y 6 #7 Hillbilly Hanover
Y 8 #5 Chicago Hanover
Y 9 #1 Nob Hill High

[mrroyboy]

Here is your list of your wagers for 09/07/2013

1. Race #2 at Pocono Downs on Program Number 4 which is GENERAL MACK for $100
2. Race #4 at Pocono Downs on Program Number 3 which is TAMAYO for $100
3. Race #5 at Pocono Downs on Program Number 6 which is CARD HUSTLER for $100
4. Race #7 at Yonkers Raceway on Program Number 6 which is FLEM N EM N for $100
5. Race #6 at Yonkers Raceway on Program Number 4 which is CHINA GRILL for $100

Click here to return to the contest home page.

[LottaKash]

My last hurrah....Trying to pick longshots ahead of time, turns out to be a tough beat for me....I always try to get my bargain prices, but knowing them ahead of time, has eluded me for years, it seems...

[Overcall]

1. Race #5 at Pocono Downs on Program Number 7 which is BAGEL MAN for $100
2. Race #2 at Hoosier Park on Program Number 6 which is NORTHWESTERNDREAMS for $100
3. Race #5 at Hoosier Park on Program Number 9 which is ATOMIC REI for $100
4. Race #6 at Hoosier Park on Program Number 9 which is PARADISE STATION for $100
5. Race #12 at Hoosier Park on Program Number 3 which is IDEAL CHOICE for $100

glta

[mrroyboy]

Well None of you guys picked the same horses as I did. Don't know if that's good or bad!!!