Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
You know, I'm going to add more to this because it kinda pissed me off. Things like Formula pointing out random races where the odds went up on the winner or Classhandicapper saying he can pick his spots and win are truly counterproductive and make me wonder if either of you have ever actually READ any of the things people have posted about how they bet.
The CAW strategy is NOT usually "I'm betting $10000 on the favorite to win". They're making many, often contradictory bets on anything their program finds value in, and they're doing it at post time. Because they're only losing a few percent (or winning) vs. the takeout (doing much better than the average player) they are sucking value from the pools every race. You can't outwit them IN THE LONG RUN for that very reason. It's not a matter of picking your spots. They're in every "spot" and pool at most major tracks. Pointing out that odds went up late one time just means nothing.
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I just found this post because of the CAW discussion in the other thread.
I should clarify.
I don't care when the CAWs bet, how many horses they bet, which pools they bet etc.. I don't care about them at all other than like you said they are making the pools more efficient overall.
I am looking for things I believe still have value because the overall crowd (which includes the CAWs) is currently misunderstanding something or has a different ways of looking at things than me.
The problem for me is that since they are so good at finding those things, it's ridiculously difficult for me to find something like that. Things that had value years ago don't have value now.
I am always looking for new ideas, ways of improving my metrics, different ways of thinking about things etc.. Eventually, I will probably have an empty tool chest, but I don't think I'm there yet. But as someone that made few bets to begin with, I'm damn close now. I'm running out of ideas to test. Most people would just quit and take up another game.
