Advancing In Your Handicapping

[onegoodday]

Hey guys i was just wondering how do you start to take that next step in your handicapping?My last two trips out to del mar ive picked 6-8 winners and 5-8 this thursday.However i still feel like im at that beggining stage of handicapping.I realize that it is a process that will take time,but i feel like i have gotten my feet wet enough to maybe start making that transistion into the next level.I have been following the del mar meet pretty closely this summer i always catch at least a couple if not half of the card a day on tv.I am constantly reading and always looking to learn new strategies and new things about this game.I have been following the advice that you guys gave me on here when i posted my crash course thread asking for beggining advice,i have been playing relatively cheap tickets compared to what ive seen some of the users on here play.And ive been keeping it relatively basic (occasional exacta,pick 3's,win bets,ive played the pick 4 once for ten dollars).Im finding winners and im feeling like each time i play i am getting a better grasp with the understanding of pp's and determining whos a contender and whos not.

But i want to get better at this,i want to keep improving i dont wanna just be someone who just kind of knows the game and wins little if any at all.I want to be on a higher level and i know that it is not an easy thing to do but im willing to study and keep improving.I want to start to turn the page to that next level of handicapping,and by that i mean when did you guys really start to turn the page with your handicapping and what did it take for it to happen?Each time i play i feel more and more confident with my picks.So should i stick with simplistic wagers until i start seeing a steady return??Im young and im all ears i have time to grow as a gambler and im willing to learn.So what are some things that i can do to start to improve and no longer be a novice at this game.Thanks guys

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by onegoodday

Hey guys i was just wondering how do you start to take that next step in your handicapping?My last two trips out to del mar ive picked 6-8 winners and 5-8 this thursday.However i still feel like im at that beggining stage of handicapping.I realize that it is a process that will take time,but i feel like i have gotten my feet wet enough to maybe start making that transistion into the next level.I have been following the del mar meet pretty closely this summer i always catch at least a couple if not half of the card a day on tv.I am constantly reading and always looking to learn new strategies and new things about this game.I have been following the advice that you guys gave me on here when i posted my crash course thread asking for beggining advice,i have been playing relatively cheap tickets compared to what ive seen some of the users on here play.And ive been keeping it relatively basic (occasional exacta,pick 3's,win bets,ive played the pick 4 once for ten dollars).Im finding winners and im feeling like each time i play i am getting a better grasp with the understanding of pp's and determining whos a contender and whos not.

But i want to get better at this,i want to keep improving i dont wanna just be someone who just kind of knows the game and wins little if any at all.I want to be on a higher level and i know that it is not an easy thing to do but im willing to study and keep improving.I want to start to turn the page to that next level of handicapping,and by that i mean when did you guys really start to turn the page with your handicapping and what did it take for it to happen?Each time i play i feel more and more confident with my picks.So should i stick with simplistic wagers until i start seeing a steady return??Im young and im all ears i have time to grow as a gambler and im willing to learn.So what are some things that i can do to start to improve and no longer be a novice at this game.Thanks guys

IMO...you start "turning the page to that next level of handicapping", when you realize that the real battle at the track is not between you and the other bettors...or you and the "game".

The main battle is between you...and your own undisciplined and greedy nature.

When you leave behind the comfort provided by your "cheap" bets, and you escalate your wagers in your quest for "serious" profits...you will experience the game's violent swings...which destroy the confidence (and the bankrolls) of the vast majority of the players who attempt to make the leap to the "higher levels" of this game.

Your success as a serious player will be determined not only by your handicapping prowess...but also by your ability to perform well under pressure -- especially when you find yourself in the midst of the unavoidable losing streaks which plague us all.

[fredking22]

Hm.. I Guess I'm in the same about as you,although i'm sure we gamble totally different. I can tell you a year from a few months ago to what I'm doing now is a 100x fold better; more advanced. I would say keep on reading,learning and trying; what I've noticed is when someone has an angle and overtime that angle is found out and the market adjusts to it they have no other angle/advantage and they don't prosper as much. You should know if you're ready,confidence is easy when you're winning but you're down its different ball game,you have doubts,mood swings etc etc..take your bets day and see if your making as much as you think.

Good luck I hope you prosper.

[dkithore]

Thaskolos
I appreciate you creating time to give sage advice!

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The main battle is between you...and your own undisciplined and greedy nature.

I think the battle is between you and your cognitive biases.

[Johnny V]

One thing I would recommend doing is keeping detailed records on all your plays. This will point out the reality of where you are and eventually point out your strengths and weaknesses.

If you progress to much larger wages (which is not always necessarily a good thing) you are going to find out what your meltdown point is during a bad run and it will be a sobering lesson. This is different for everyone but it happens and the key is how you respond to it and how you adjust.

You are going to get good advice on this board and you will learn some things here. Keep an independence of judgement while always trying to improve your game and keeping an open mind.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by onegoodday

Hey guys i was just wondering how do you start to take that next step in your handicapping?My last two trips out to del mar ive picked 6-8 winners and 5-8 this thursday.

If you are regularly picking 5 or 6 winners out of 8 races you are doing very well, probably better than many visitors to this board, particularly at Del Mar which is full of surprises.
Several have given you good advice here. Johnny V's advice on keeping records is very important, but most horseplayers unfortunately are too lazy to do that or fear that they'll find out that their not as good as they thought they were.

1. What ideas did you use to pick those winners? Write them down. You'll need to look back on them at a future date when you experience a losing streak as invariably all players do. Winning at the track is cyclical for even the best handicappers.

2. Examine your losing races and find out what you might have done to pick the winners in them. In effect, "Why did that horse win today?" "What, if anything did you miss?" Write those ideas down. It is important to learn from your losses, yet many don't. They just keep following the same old path.

3. Realize, no one is going to consistently pick 8 winners on a daily basis (except they are taking the board in every race which is a losing proposition.)

4. There are two sides to this game. a. Picking 'em b. Betting 'em.
It looks like you are strong enough on side a.
Now you have to get strong on side b.

5. Reading between the lines you need to spend more time on learning how and when to bet them for value and when and when not to play exotics.

[speed]

Don't worry about picking the highest number of winners but attempt to find selections that are consistently overlays. You will certainly have many days you don't cash a ticket but in the long haul i believe you have a better chance. Look at it this way most gamblers lose on a yearly basis so why key in on short priced horses which the public likes.

[RaceBookJoe]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

If you are regularly picking 5 or 6 winners out of 8 races you are doing very well, probably better than many visitors to this board, particularly at Del Mar which is full of surprises.
Several have given you good advice here. Johnny V's advice on keeping records is very important, but most horseplayers unfortunately are too lazy to do that or fear that they'll find out that their not as good as they thought they were.

1. What ideas did you use to pick those winners? Write them down. You'll need to look back on them at a future date when you experience a losing streak as invariably all players do. Winning at the track is cyclical for even the best handicappers.

2. Examine your losing races and find out what you might have done to pick the winners in them. In effect, "Why did that horse win today?" "What, if anything did you miss?" Write those ideas down. It is important to learn from your losses, yet many don't. They just keep following the same old path.

3. Realize, no one is going to consistently pick 8 winners on a daily basis (except they are taking the board in every race which is a losing proposition.)

4. There are two sides to this game. a. Picking 'em b. Betting 'em.
It looks like you are strong enough on side a.
Now you have to get strong on side b.

5. Reading between the lines you need to spend more time on learning how and when to bet them for value and when and when not to play exotics.

This is a great post by Greyfox...and one thing i would add to his advice of points #1 and #2 would be to also write down in your journal is the type of race it was. You might find that for example, turf routes are your weakness or filly sprints, mid-level claimers vs stakes races etc. In my journey, i used to avoid turf races because when i first started there were maybe 1 a day and i couldnt figure them out. Did more research because over time as more and more turf races were carded, i had to learn them so i read/practiced over and over. Now i enjoy the turf races just as much. There is a ton of knowledge here and plenty of people to go to for help. rbj

[onegoodday]

Awsome responses by everyone i wanna say thanks to greyfox and thaskalos for their extended replies.Greyfox you mentioned to coninue reading and learning more about exotics,do you have any reccomendations for books on them?Or any links to solid info online??As i am having a hard time finding good strategy on the subject.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by onegoodday

Awsome responses by everyone i wanna say thanks to greyfox and thaskalos for their extended replies.Greyfox you mentioned to coninue reading and learning more about exotics,do you have any reccomendations for books on them?Or any links to solid info online??As i am having a hard time finding good strategy on the subject.

Go to the Library and see if there are any books there by Steven Christ and/or Dick Mitchell. Christ's Exotic Betting comes to mind.

[raybo]

As has been stated, value is extremely important, whether it be overlays in WPS wagering or value in the form of high exotic payout potential.

On the handicapping side, I suggest you study running styles, pace pressure, pace/running style matchups that are likely to occur during the running of races,and most of all, current form and form cycles.

[RaceBookJoe]

Originally Posted by raybo

As has been stated, value is extremely important, whether it be overlays in WPS wagering or value in the form of high exotic payout potential.

On the handicapping side, I suggest you study running styles, pace pressure, pace/running style matchups that are likely to occur during the running of races,and most of all, current form and form cycles.

This is what really turned my game around...just wish i learned it years earlier in my overall play. rbj

[ManU918]

I'm new here and don't want to step on anyone's toes but to revert back to what a few posters already said is huge.... Finding out what your bad at and work to fix the problem. Keep notes, charts, and so on. I know the weakest part of my game is turf sprints, so when a turf sprint comes up I look the other way. Just because the card has 10 races does not mean you have to bet all 10.

[ranchwest]

If you're hitting 11 of 16, the best thing to do is to not seek advice.