Quantifying a hypothesis about FTS winners through data?

[Milkshaker]

When handicapping races involving first-time starters that broke their maidens in their last start, I have always had a personal bias in favor of horses who won a debut at 7f (meaning I upgrade their performance because I think it is a difficult feat to win a debut at that particular middle distance).

Do any of the database specialists on this site have any info that would either support or refute my hunch?

(ie--What percentage of 7f debut maiden winners come back to win a next start as compared to FTS who debut and win at other distances?)

Thanks in advance for any help.

[sjk]

Here is what I get for win percent in second start for groups of debut winners by distance:

Debut Win Dist	next race win pct
1 1/16 MILES	15.09%
1 MILE	17.14%
5 1/2 FURLONGS	15.74%
5 FURLONGS	16.97%
6 1/2 FURLONGS	17.97%
6 FURLONGS	18.85%
7 FURLONGS	15.76%

First time winners seem to do well in general but 7 furlong winners are not apparently better than others.

[FreeExperience]

Originally Posted by sjk

Here is what I get for win percent in second start for groups of debut winners by distance:

Debut Win Dist	next race win pct
 1 1/16 MILES	15.09%
 1 MILE	17.14%
 5 1/2 FURLONGS	15.74%
 5 FURLONGS	16.97%
 6 1/2 FURLONGS	17.97%
 6 FURLONGS	18.85%
 7 FURLONGS	15.76%

First time winners seem to do well in general but 7 furlong winners are not apparently better than others.

Is this from a personal database of yours or a subscription? If it's a subscription, where is it to?

[sjk]

Personal Database

[Milkshaker]

Thanks for the prompt reply and great info, SJK.

Now we'll find out if I am smart enough to let the data trump my mental bias.

[Sekrah]

Milkshaker,

Think of it this way to trick your mind: Since 7f is a difficult distance for maidens, then a win by a maiden is not all that impressive since the rest of the field was likely in poor shape to win such a race.

[plainolebill]

I've always thought that trainers entered horses with less early speed in 7F maiden races.

[RXB]

The ROI on debut winners returning in their second starts is quite poor. Almost uniformly modest payoffs when they win, which isn't nearly often enough.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Milkshaker

(ie--What percentage of 7f debut maiden winners come back to win a next start as compared to FTS who debut and win at other distances?)

Thanks in advance for any help.

Are you talking high end, restricted maiden races?