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04-09-2017, 01:20 PM
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#271
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Let's try my line on a bunch of races today...the only race I am going to bet real money on at AQU is race #6 (will officially be in my Value Races & Horses thread of the day)...but let's see how it goes in others...
Race #1:
 8/5
 9/5 |
I must confess, I bet them both...
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04-09-2017, 01:22 PM
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#272
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I must confess, I bet them both...
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wins at 2-1...#winner
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04-09-2017, 01:29 PM
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#273
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Race #2:
 1/1
5/1
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04-09-2017, 01:41 PM
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#274
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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I was a little disappointed that Mr. Diaz didn't ask his to roll through on the inside there. But, unless I know that the six would definitely concede, can't be sure it cost him anything. And I really don't want to pin it on Diaz either anyway. That looked like trainer thinking.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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04-09-2017, 01:48 PM
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#275
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Race #2:
1/1
5/1 |
Do I roll my meager winnings from the first race into this horse at 10-1? Pretty certain (as is everyone else) that this chalk is good...but 10-1 is 10-1, right?
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04-09-2017, 01:49 PM
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#276
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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I've quickly decided NOT to bet any money on this race. I see no advantage to the as compared to the ... is the better horse in every respect...sitting this one out.
is the very definition of PACE ADVANTAGE
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-09-2017 at 01:52 PM.
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04-09-2017, 01:53 PM
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#277
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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For the record, how the is 5-2 and the is 11-1 is beyond my ability to grasp...must be the 's poor trainer...but they both have pretty nasty connections
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-09-2017 at 01:55 PM.
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04-09-2017, 01:57 PM
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#278
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Wow...how the isn't in front?
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04-09-2017, 01:57 PM
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#279
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Hah...glad I didn't bet
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04-09-2017, 02:02 PM
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#280
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Onto the next...these races are all pretty unpalatable to me...
Race #3
3/2
9/2
 6/1
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04-09-2017, 02:10 PM
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#281
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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That race screamed chaos as the 2 was as bad a 1/5 favorite I've seen...but the others didn't exactly inspire much confidence either.
Track seems to be carrying speed (again) and I have to watch the head on but not the kind of ride you want on a 1/5.
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04-09-2017, 02:12 PM
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#282
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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If Adulator stays 3-1 ish I'm making a big bet. One of my favorite angles back in the day was Allen Jerkens horses at Aqueduct first race back from Gulfstream. His son is pretty good with them as well.
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04-09-2017, 02:13 PM
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#283
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Agreed. That second race looked like bad news.
This third race was pretty tough for me to really like anyone very much. I don't trust the outside. I don't trust a lot of these horses - even the really consistent ones - to run their usual race the way the first couple have run.
Magic money play only:
 Backsideofthemoon - Grasping for a price that makes some sense and this one is probably inferior race horse, but it may come into the race as well or better than anyone else. Basic principles at play here: an old-timer with one going third back off a little break and following the same move that he used the previous year with this one. Two on the inner off the rest and then third is back on the main. Last year she chased a strong pace and ran okay. She's popped a nice half-mile tightener between her last start and this one and just get the sense that the barn thinks this is the winning move with her. We'll see, but with riders looking to be aware of a possible bias, I don't think anyone is a cinch.
Edited because I forgot to make a magic money play:
$20 W/P = $40
$4 tri 1 - ALL = $48
$2 tri 1 - 4,6 - ALL = $12
== stuck $200
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
Last edited by johnhannibalsmith; 04-09-2017 at 02:15 PM.
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04-09-2017, 02:15 PM
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#284
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
That race screamed chaos as the 2 was as bad a 1/5 favorite I've seen...but the others didn't exactly inspire much confidence either.
Track seems to be carrying speed (again) and I have to watch the head on but not the kind of ride you want on a 1/5.
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I couldn't see that, the way I look at races...thought the was legit, but then again, I am using strictly numbers, so you have more insight than I do in this department. But THEN AGAIN, I had him at EVEN and not 1/5...LOL
With that said, looked to me like the jock wanted no part of a 3-way duel and rode accordingly...
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-09-2017 at 02:18 PM.
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04-09-2017, 02:17 PM
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#285
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I couldn't see that, the way I look at races...thought the was legit, but then again, I am using strictly numbers, so you have more insight than I do in this department.
With that said, looked to me like the jock wanted no part of a 3-way duel and rode accordingly... |
He towered over them numbers wise but that drop was VERY suspicious. I just wish I had an opinion in the race.
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