The Travers Stakes ( Grade I ) 8/26/2023

[rastajenk]

After today, I wonder if National Treasure can steal it. I'm leaning towards he can.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The more I look the more I think this is Forte & Arcangelo, and the rest will be well beaten, except for maybe Disarm, who could surprise.

Mage seems like he's pace dependent and likely will not get the set up he needs. I'll let him beat me.

w

Will take a longer look at Disarm who has progressed steadily without a setback. Could be dangerous if the rains persist the next few days with that Candy Ride in his blood. He has yet to defeat anyone of note so I'll need a big price to use him on top (over 10-1).

Going to be a very nice race

After watching some replays I'm going to go all in on Arcangelo if the price is right (which is about 7-2 for me). He was loaded all the way around in the Belmont and galloped out like a monster, just like he did in the Peter Pan.
Took a longer look at Disarm and I just don't feel he's of this ilk.
I'll let the Derby winner beat me, and will tip my cap to him if he does.
Forte obviously merits respect, but a 1-2 exacta won't get me much.

Huge ex: 2-1
Big ex: 2 w 4-6
Sizeable ex: 2 w 3-5

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

No die-hard frontrunners in this long route, but National Treasure has only won on the lead and Scotland can’t afford to get behind these classy laterunners. Best chance for is to track closely, as projected, blinkers on. That should keep the pace honest, but no meltdown or wire-to-wire steal. The TFUS pace projector looks very formful.

Forte: A few chinks in the armor deflect a short price
Produced two speed figure advances on wet tracks, and he has a big “wet” Tomlinson rating. He didn’t match his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Beyer until he ran second as the favorite in the Belmont. Although, he did win the two Derby prep races in between with the lower figs. He merely nosed one of only four foes to win last time, although he did battle aside Angel of Empire to get by. Not way against him, but others viable at better prices.

Arcangelo: Can’t deny this precocious contender; prefer over ML favorite
Won Belmont Stakes with aplomb fifth time out, after beating the favorite to win the G3 Peter Pan. Only Mage and maybe Scotland rival that precocity. Won three times from where it projects to land in the pace mix, loosely in the midpack tier with Forte. Another move forward seems at least as likely as regression after several sharp 5f works at Saratoga. Castellano opts to ride this one over his other mount here—Derby winner Mage. May wind up the favorite or an underlaid second choice; ML seems fair.

Tapit Trice: Usable as double-digit sixth choice after disappointing Triple Crown campaign
Promising Derby trail fizzled on the day, revived with a “mild bid” to lose place by a nose to today’s favorite in the Belmont, then “lacked a rally” to hit the Haskell super after dodging a fading runner and going wide. Tied for last on the morning line at 12-1 seems pretty generous for a classy horse that could turn things around in its 8th race. And yet, probably an underlay beneath vertical winners.

Mage: Derby winner absolutely playable third choice
Even the disappointing Preakness added another G1 in-the-money finish to Mage’s short resumé. Placed behind a Haskell surprise winner ahead of the favorite and today’s rival to the inside last time to earn another competitive figure—and that G1 was merely a prep for this race. Late running rating rivaled only by less-inspiring Tapit Trice, modest field size should reduce pace trouble. Will leverage dampened odds prominently.

National Treasure: Pass on unfavorable setup here
Won the Preakness over regressing Mage in third, but barely held off Blazing Sevens. That one disappointed for show as odds-on favorite in the Curlin next, won wire-to-wire by today’s rival Scotland. Not way outclassed or overmatched for the lead and can still improve, but hard to see a frontrunning path to victory here—the only way he’s won. I appreciate the contrarian PA interest here, but I can't see him getting loose or holding off enough of these classy late runners to contend. Especially at single-digit fourth choice.

Disarm: Could outrun odds with favorable setup closer to the pace
Ran fourth in a Jim Dandy field of five behind winner Forte, but still earned a respectable 119 TFUS speed figure. He beat a modest field in the G3 Matt Winn before that, after hitting the Derby superfecta underneath Mage—the last time he raced on a dry track. Projects to sit off the two pace setters to his inside and out, with enough late run to hold off closers. Setup could make his day at a price.

Scotland: Precocious and versatile with upside—how far will it carry today?
Possesses only triple-digit TFUS speed figures in only four races, with a 117 last out over 9f on this track. Only Mage can top that precocity. Projects to get the lead over rival National Treasure, who may battle for it, but Scotland also won two back from 7th. Field-lowest late rating by a few points, but plenty of upside in this one, and only one career loss, by a nose. Distance goes farther and waters get deeper here, but totally usable tied for sixth choice.

Ranking in tiers by betting interest:
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I will try to beat the top two favorites in the exacta, and allow them with price horses in the deeper exotics. Something like this:

Win:
Exacta: key with & , maybe (underneath) at a price
Trifecta: add
Superfecta: add or , not both

nice preview

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

After watching some replays I'm going to go all in on Arcangelo if the price is right (which is about 7-2 for me). He was loaded all the way around in the Belmont and galloped out like a monster, just like he did in the Peter Pan.
Took a longer look at Disarm and I just don't feel he's of this ilk.
I'll let the Derby winner beat me, and will tip my cap to him if he does.
Forte obviously merits respect, but a 1-2 exacta won't get me much.

Huge ex: 2-1
Big ex: 2 w 4-6
Sizeable ex: 2 w 3-5

I'd certainly be more interested in Arcangelo at 7-2. I don't think 2-1 is outrageous, but I wonder if he drops below that. He's the one I fear most, and may succumb to using him more prominently than I should at a short price.

I'm definitely more comfortable swinging against Forte, especially near even money. Less so at 2-1 or more, but not expecting that.

Whereas if Mage just inherits third choice at some kind of price? I want to bet that. I've been on him all along, but just seems like where the value is here (such as it is). I'd be happy with 7-2.

Yeah, my interest in Disarm assumes a price, but I do like him better than 5th choice.

My second thought horse is Scotland. No cinch for 10f, especially if he hooks up with National Treasure, but he shouldn't have fry himself with that. The idea is that he's usable as longest shot on the board, like Tapit Trice.

You can't play them all, but you can emphasize the better prices, given the contention.

[Maximillion]

Imo, as far as just talent Tapit Trice is every bit as good as anything in this field.That's not the issue at all.I am just uninspired by what he actually does on the track.I feel pretty much the same way about National Treasure.

With my record in these races so far that might be the exacta right there.

Picking Disarm to win

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

After today, I wonder if National Treasure can steal it. I'm leaning towards he can.

Depends on the weather and track . Mud is the equalizer. I knew Idiomatic had a great shot at winning yesterday . She’s improving and once she got out there ……..no matter how good you think you are , you gotta reel her in via the slop. That’s why I feel people downgrading Forte in the Jim Dandy is a mistake . It’s half a miracle that he won that race with that pace and the track conditions. People are out of their minds if they don’t think the track doesn’t have a bias on those days. Yesterday was a virtual merry go round of horses running in front or right off the lead. By the big race I was not going to be burnt by the track . You gotta accept it and roll with it . Cause you’ll be rewarded for doing so.
That being said , they are claiming a mostly dry day with the chance of rain. The other thing I don’t really like about National Treasure is he may not be all alone on the lead for long . That Preakness is pretty much coming up a dud so far. Slow pace and none of the top 3 have won since which is why I sort of don’t like Mage either. Watch the weather today . It’s probably that horses best chance if it’s mud.

Handicapping wise people have to adjust their bets depending on the conditions. So, your idea is good if it’s another quagmire. I knew Nest might be in trouble if Idiomatic got a jump like she did . The whole day was like that . And Clairiere pretty much had no chance in a deal like that .

[zerosky]

Can't get past Forte although blinkers on for Disarm seems like a good move
Boxed exacta

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

After today, I wonder if National Treasure can steal it. I'm leaning towards he can.

It was funny, I was listening to Matt Bernier a few days back and he thinks NT should be longer than 20-1. Of course I think part of that is never liking him, but definitely also that NT won the Preakness.

I'm not on NT today either, by the way.

I think Scotland is better than most think, and I'll use him in my horizontals for sure, but I'll settle on

[zico20]

I have it between the and that is it. Just not sure who is going to win but I will lean to National Treasure. Didn't like the in the Belmont and don't like him here today. If he beats me a second time I will concede he is a top horse among the three year olds.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Gotta love it.

A myriad of differing opinions with solid thoughts behind them.

A wide open race.

Should be fantastic with all 7 truly having a shot. I simply can't see a horse in this field that can't win this race.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

It was funny, I was listening to Matt Bernier a few days back and he thinks NT should be longer than 20-1. Of course I think part of that is never liking him, but definitely also that NT won the Preakness.

I'm not on NT today either, by the way.

I think Scotland is better than most think, and I'll use him in my horizontals for sure, but I'll settle on

I've been looking at race shape for the last 2 days. Scotland might get an easy early lead because National Treasure loses the blinkies today. Every race without blinks National Treasure stalks... you could look it up. Any slow to moderate pace I have Arcangelo stalking closely or involved in the lead mid to late backstretch. That's of course if Javy isn't trapped on the rail. I could see Johnny outside Arcangelo and Fort along the backstretch with Scotland getting confidence on the lead. Johnny keeps them there as long as he can hoping to get Scotland late. Another thing I've been overlooking is Forte was much closer to the pace with the blinks last race. I think Irad is wherever Arcangelo is the entire race. Pletcher and Irad aren't going to let anyone get away from them in this race. If National Treasure stalks he's a good bet for place or show. Arcangelo is a single in the one spot for me today. I'll fill out the exacta closer to race time. I'll be looking for value for place with hopes someone can beat Forte for place. It'll most likely be a straight ticket anywhere from 20 to 50$. Good luck to everyone today. I'm not playing any other races on the card, but I'll be watching to see how the track is playing.

[bisket]

One other thing the mud is going to make Mage's job much more difficult if the track plays today like it has previously.

[davew]

This will be a fun race to watch, 3 triple crown race WINNERS and none of them are ML favorite.

[Aerocraft67]

Judging by Race 1, the track seemed pretty fair. Although the closer, Secret Lover, seemed to get bogged down on the rail at the top of the stretch, moved out a lane, and picked up a bit. Finished third as second choice followed by the fourth choice for the super.

Definitely cells of rain coming down from Canada, and rain starting to spring up locally in front of that. Should make things interesting.

[JoeLong]

Great read, eye opening. Thanks.