Jerry Brown is the president of Thoro-Graph, Inc.

[thaskalos]

It isn't "our game", gents...the game belongs to "them", and they can do whatever they want with it. All we can do is let our wagering dollars do the talking for us. There is no longer a reason to patronize a gambling game that totally disrespects you as a "customer". The "monopoly" days are gone...and other gambling opportunities are sprouting all over the place. As they say on Wall Street...we must "diversify".

[tbwinner]

And what if that "slot welfare" goes away?

The game is in for a hard hit. I've said for years that I foresee many state legislatures doing away with the requirement to have a racetrack if you want a casino. In fact many already have. Soon the politicians will swing, it'll no longer be worrying about the welfare of the horsemen and breeding industry, it'll be succumbing to the PETA like and getting tired of the abuse/cheating.

Would tracks like Parx, CTown, even Colonial exist without their gaming? Not with the purses they give out. CDI isn't even a racing company anymore they have got their hands in all other sorts of gambling.

Racing F'd up big time, and continues its downward spiral. Will it be gone forever? Doubt it. I think you'll have the elite tracks and some second tier ones but the loss of GGF is only the beginning now.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

And what if that "slot welfare" goes away?

The game is in for a hard hit. I've said for years that I foresee many state legislatures doing away with the requirement to have a racetrack if you want a casino. In fact many already have. Soon the politicians will swing, it'll no longer be worrying about the welfare of the horsemen and breeding industry, it'll be succumbing to the PETA like and getting tired of the abuse/cheating.

Would tracks like Parx, CTown, even Colonial exist without their gaming? Not with the purses they give out. CDI isn't even a racing company anymore they have got their hands in all other sorts of gambling.

Racing F'd up big time, and continues its downward spiral. Will it be gone forever? Doubt it. I think you'll have the elite tracks and some second tier ones but the loss of GGF is only the beginning now.

Exactly. Instead of using slot welfare to correct the pricing and heavily market the sport they chose other avenues (mostly purses), with the assumption it will be here forever. Only a complete idiot would think slot welfare will remain forever. Especially when your policy (feeding whales at the expense of everyone else) drives away most of your core audience. To motivate politicians to give you welfare you have to at least pretend you have a business left. How long can they pretend?

One other point, Jerry Brown stated that 3 caw dollars is equivalent to $1 regular betting dollar. Assuming that is true, when you see stats like over 20 years adjusted for inflation handle dropped 50%, the revenue is even worse. Lets say the 20 year period started with no caw and ended with 30% caw. So at a 12 billion dollar base. After 20 years it became 6 Billion (afi). But since the caw makes up 1.8 of that 6 billion than the equivalent revenue base is not on 6 billion dollars it is now on 4.8 Billion dollars. So from a revenue perspective the 50% drop over 20 years is equivalent to a 60% drop over 20 years from a revenue perspective. Congratulations racing industry. Job well done.

If one wants to argue that the damage is too much at this point for any legitimate recovery or resurgence, I can see that. Obviously every minute wasted leaves a bigger mountain to climb. But not trying with such a active market available seems like a wasted opportunity to me. But they have been wasting opportunity for over 20 years so no reason for me to assume the next 20 years will be any different.

Andy C. It is not easy to get rebates, so for you to say that the advantage gamblers are already getting rebates is ridiculous. You have to live in the right state or bet the right amount of money (I believe it was around a million bucks a year a number of years back) or do some other shady shit to get them. Most of these advantage gamblers I am speaking of have probably never bet a horse race in their life to date. That market is about 99% untapped. You have to fix the pricing in this game and you have to reach them. I did not say it is easy, but the market is there. Also with bets like the pick 5 people are betting most races without access to the betting so it doesn't even involve sitting around all day. If a pick 5 starts at 1 pm, you can get on your computer at 12:45 Pm make your play see the betting for the first leg and 2nd leg through the double pools and be on with your day at about 1:05 pm. If priced right, racing would offer many a tremendous opportunity. It is also a lot more entertaining imo than it's competition. But to each their own in that regard. Seriously why am I having to argue with horse player or ex horse players that going after a market of millions is better than catering to 2 or 3 dozen teams. You guys want to bury the game, bury the game. But the only reason it is going to bury itself is because of rebates and poor pricing.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

.....Andy C. It is not easy to get rebates, so for you to say that the advantage gamblers are already getting rebates is ridiculous. You have to live in the right state or bet the right amount of money (I believe it was around a million bucks a year a number of years back) or do some other shady shit to get them. Most of these advantage gamblers I am speaking of have probably never bet a horse race in their life to date. That market is about 99% untapped. You have to fix the pricing in this game and you have to reach them. I did not say it is easy, but the market is there. Also with bets like the pick 5 people are betting most races without access to the betting so it doesn't even involve sitting around all day. If a pick 5 starts at 1 pm, you can get on your computer at 12:45 Pm make your play see the betting for the first leg and 2nd leg through the double pools and be on with your day at about 1:05 pm. If priced right, racing would offer many a tremendous opportunity. It is also a lot more entertaining imo than it's competition. But to each their own in that regard. Seriously why am I having to argue with horse player or ex horse players that going after a market of millions is better than catering to 2 or 3 dozen teams. You guys want to bury the game, bury the game. But the only reason it is going to bury itself is because of rebates and poor pricing.

Every sharp advantage player I know is getting rebates. Your experience may vary.


As for advantage gamblers yet to bet horses, I can't believe there are that many out there willing to put in the extensive time ( and cost) to become an advantage player with horses.



Nobody wants to bury the game but the future does look bleak.

[JustRalph]

There’s a place for the game. But it’s half the size it is now. Maybe less. Get rid of the CAW players and price it right (right down to admission fees) and promote it as a game of skill.

[tbwinner]

They just closed but for the last 8 years I was betting with Premier Turf Club. They gave rebates with no minimums. I was getting 2% at NYRa up to 12-15% something at high take tracks like Parx tris.

Anyone not taking advantage of whatever they can get is just digging themselves more in the hole.

Ps...who remembers when TVG used to CHARGE us a quarter or whatever per bet!!!???

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by cj

I took me a while to catch on, but the instant access and the ability to bet last is the big advantage in my opinion. I think CRWs would still win a lot without rebates. I don't think they would win without last second access, and if they did it would be a much smaller amount than they win now.

you are 100% right, but let me bring this one step further and i have no idea how to overcome this inequity.

when the big boys that make $millions and billions every year outside of the race horse business, they can now buy the best race horses, have them go to the best trainers, get the best exercise riders and not have to pay one dime to be in that business. the way the tax rules go they can depreciate the cost and the expenses of the horse, 50% the first year and the remainder in the second year. so if they buy 10 horses and 9 don't pan out, they are still a winner. a little guy that doesn't pay that much in taxes because they might make $200,000 a year can't play in the same game.

the same thing with a regular recreational horse bettor. whether that recreational bettor gets a rebate or not, that person is not going to last as long as the person that is last in the pools whether that person gets a rebate or not.

these 2 basic reasons is why there is consolidation in the racing game in North America. throw in drugs and you can really understand where we are.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

There’s a place for the game. But it’s half the size it is now. Maybe less. Get rid of the CAW players and price it right (right down to admission fees) and promote it as a game of skill.

There is that side of it too, where 20 years from now 10 tracks are open and they still get $15 billion in handle. I'm not sure it will work out that way, but it's possible that racing will survive but with a tiny number of tracks. Maybe it doesn't matter if handle is $2 billion instead of $15 billion int the future, if we can still play and have fun. Remains to be seen.

[Robert Fischer]

I like when the CAW are wrong, and you got the race coming up.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

They just closed but for the last 8 years I was betting with Premier Turf Club. They gave rebates with no minimums. I was getting 2% at NYRa up to 12-15% something at high take tracks like Parx tris.

Anyone not taking advantage of whatever they can get is just digging themselves more in the hole.

Ps...who remembers when TVG used to CHARGE us a quarter or whatever per bet!!!???

I always thought PTC would be nice to have with their rebates. Problem is, state residency varies quite a bit for which of the ADWs are available, and PTC was never an option for me. With PTC no longer in business, it doesn't make the life of the average punter any easier for getting a decent rebate. The big three (TS, Xpressbet and TVG) offer paltry rebates, but have the capital to get approved for operating in more states. I don't think CAW groups need to be banned, but the rebates need to go away. They could make up the difference in lower takeouts. I don't think the last second betting is that much of an advantage. Just watch Sha Tin for a while, and note all the brown lampers (horses whose odds drop 50% or more late) run out of the money.

BTW - state restrictions can apply to sports betting and other gambling too. Illinois, where I used to live, had horrible vig from the sports betting providers due to the high licensing costs. Too much greed out there.

TVG and charging for a bet? Yeah, that was one of the reasons I didn't sign up with them for years. I did open an account with them for about a decade, and closed it out several years ago because I rarely used it. It was all right, and decent customer support.

Racing will continue to evolve and I think will be around in 20 years or so. But then we could very well be down to 10 tracks, plus the quarter horse matches on back country roads in Louisana. When it comes to finding decent cards, currently we're down to just weekends and "big days" as Thask has pointed out. I don't see that changing, as the cheaper racing in the U.S. has become unbettable.

[andicap]

Hasn't NYRA closed wagering to the CAWs three minutes before post?

If so, what has been the upshot?

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by metro

lol, Brown preaching about rebates when he's surely been getting one for decades. It's only when CAWs started getting theirs, and it started hitting him in his wallet, that he cares about the edge someone else has.

Other than that I agree with most everything he says.

Whether or not he's benefitting from rebates has NOTHING to do with his opinion of CAW's.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by tbwinner

And what if that "slot welfare" goes away?

The game is in for a hard hit. I've said for years that I foresee many state legislatures doing away with the requirement to have a racetrack if you want a casino. In fact many already have. Soon the politicians will swing, it'll no longer be worrying about the welfare of the horsemen and breeding industry, it'll be succumbing to the PETA like and getting tired of the abuse/cheating.

Would tracks like Parx, CTown, even Colonial exist without their gaming? Not with the purses they give out. CDI isn't even a racing company anymore they have got their hands in all other sorts of gambling.

Racing F'd up big time, and continues its downward spiral. Will it be gone forever? Doubt it. I think you'll have the elite tracks and some second tier ones but the loss of GGF is only the beginning now.

As good as the racing and wagering opportunities are you can add Oaklawn to that list as well.

IMO without casino subsidies even that place with their GREAT racing program would fail.

[v j stauffer]

When I played the WSOP Main Event this year. The days are long and arduous. In the early levels you can play 10 to 12 hours with the same players the entire time.

It results in a lot of table talk.

Getting to know about each other.

When people asked me about my backround they couldn't possibly have cared less.

10,000+ (gamblers) all willing to invest $10k and not even the slightest interest in horse racing.

I tried more than once to extoll the virtues handicapping and horse racing. I never got out of the gate.

The races are all fixed. The horses are all doped. The action is too slow. And on and on.

I was there for a total of 8 days on two separate trips.

I know I'm a faux celebrity known only by horse players.

But I was in and amongst tens of thousands of GAMBLERS for at least 10 to 12 hours a day.

Let's call it 88 hours.

Total number of times I was recognized, even while playing in the Super Seniors (over 60), which you would think would have more horse players.

ZERO!

Even at the risk of sounding vain. That can't be good for our game.

They knew NOTHING about it.

And CARED even less.

Not good!

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

When I played the WSOP Main Event this year. The days are long and arduous. In the early levels you can play 10 to 12 hours with the same players the entire time.

It results in a lot of table talk.

Getting to know about each other.

When people asked me about my backround they couldn't possibly have cared less.

10,000+ (gamblers) all willing to invest $10k and not even the slightest interest in horse racing.

I tried more than once to extoll the virtues handicapping and horse racing. I never got out of the gate.

The races are all fixed. The horses are all doped. The action is too slow. And on and on.

I was there for a total of 8 days on two separate trips.

I know I'm a faux celebrity known only by horse players.

But I was in and amongst tens of thousands of GAMBLERS for at least 10 to 12 hours a day.

Let's call it 88 hours.

Total number of times I was recognized, even while playing in the Super Seniors (over 60), which you would think would have more horse players.

ZERO!

Even at the risk of sounding vain. That can't be good for our game.

They knew NOTHING about it.

And CARED even less.

Not good!

That is fascinating insight. Really showcases how important marketing is. Also shows how huge the untapped market is. But even if racing were able to reach some of these folks, what good would it do in today’s current environment. They would enter the game for a few months and likely exit it forever long before they can realistically become customers. This perception you speak of by these poker players is a perception earned by the racing industry. They have failed to market the sport and more importantly the prohibitive cost of playing this game helps fuel all of the negative stereotypes. So when you have stated in the past that very smart people who really care about the game are in charge, I call bullshit. Your testimony is perfect evidence that there is a huge market out there that is available. The smart people need to price the game properly and use successful players such as yourself to enlighten the unenlightened. But todays game is so damaged for the reasons outlined by brown, that ever reaching these people is a impossibility without eliminating rebates. So it is a simple choice. Either you give up and let the sport die (which in my opinion is what the racing industry has decided to do, or someone in charge grows a set of stones and says I am not going to let this game die). We are going to eliminate rebates, price this game properly so that everyone playing this game can enjoy it (people don’t have to win to enjoy this game) and we are going to hire the best marketing folks and best social media people to get the message across. But without fixing the pricing the rest is futile.

So your experience can be one of despair or one of great opportunity. Ball is in racing’s court let’s hope they don’t fumble it away like they always do.