Why is this game so hard to beat?

[VastinMT]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

As I have stated publicly, 14% of the money is wagered by 6 players.

Since we're bumping and updating . . . have these figures changed since you posted this, Dave?

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Intangibles.

They are what makes this game so irresistible, yet frustrating, at the same time.

You can crunch numbers with the best of them, but being able to think outside the box is, often times, just as important.

The people who do the best at winning in this game, manage their money the best.

BING and O.........This is true in ALL gambling. I'm a decent black jack player and a novice poker player. I can win at poker with a bunch of "average joes" in a house game but i have a couple friends that can kick my ass. Both made the World series in different years off of a 125$ online game. Discipline and managment is the key to ANY game of chance. I know horse racing so i practice this on horse racing. The guys i know that are GOOD at poker (and horses) can sit there and fold for hands until they have something or think others have crap. I PASS WAY more races than i play. They crunch the numbers and know how many blinds they can "give up" before they are in trouble. But they are constantly trying to figure out how others (at that table) play the game. You have to have discipline, some math skills and a little bit of bettors intuition (thinking out of the box). The power of observation.

Its a mistake i see people make on here. They think you can win by being good with numbers or a computer (hard work). One guy even made fun of me because i talked about drinking beer and having a good time at the track. Its not an "art" he said, well it damn sure ain't a science because theres about a billion ways a race can go and a million ways you can handicap it. I already know which races i'm betting and how much i may lose before hand. I keep records of every bet. This person didn't understand that anyone thats any good at any gambling.......is good at math. The gambler that makes money has DISCIPLINE, knows when to pull the trigger or to sit it out and they learn to THINK outside the norm. The math and work are the simple part......you just can't teach discipline or critical thinking....people either "get it" or they don't. Most gamblers are on the compulsive side (understatement).....they can't "pass" the "action". A WINNING gambler only bets when he thinks he has everyone else over the barrel. In horse racing that means finding horses that run well at the RIGHT ODDS, when most (others) are WRONG about that race. You can work as hard as you want and be a math or computer genius...you either catch on to this or you lose all the time. I don't care if you are betting two cockaroaches racing across the room, you don't pull out a dime until you think you know which one is faster or you know the guy you are betting against is a fool or wrong more times than hes right. Theres a human element to it that you must be able to understand...its an art. Even understanding all this, i make mistakes constantly and lose..you gotta learn how to lose to.......to win...theres no such thing as a formula.......Mamma called it gambling for a reason.

[cosmo96]

When all is said and done, I do very well with my computer and software program. The game is always changing. I do well at adapting. I don't see how anyone can be successful without a computer.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by burnsy

BING and O.........This is true in ALL gambling. I'm a decent black jack player and a novice poker player. I can win at poker with a bunch of "average joes" in a house game but i have a couple friends that can kick my ass. Both made the World series in different years off of a 125$ online game. Discipline and managment is the key to ANY game of chance. I know horse racing so i practice this on horse racing. The guys i know that are GOOD at poker (and horses) can sit there and fold for hands until they have something or think others have crap. I PASS WAY more races than i play. They crunch the numbers and know how many blinds they can "give up" before they are in trouble. But they are constantly trying to figure out how others (at that table) play the game. You have to have discipline, some math skills and a little bit of bettors intuition (thinking out of the box). The power of observation.

Its a mistake i see people make on here. They think you can win by being good with numbers or a computer (hard work). One guy even made fun of me because i talked about drinking beer and having a good time at the track. Its not an "art" he said, well it damn sure ain't a science because theres about a billion ways a race can go and a million ways you can handicap it. I already know which races i'm betting and how much i may lose before hand. I keep records of every bet. This person didn't understand that anyone thats any good at any gambling.......is good at math. The gambler that makes money has DISCIPLINE, knows when to pull the trigger or to sit it out and they learn to THINK outside the norm. The math and work are the simple part......you just can't teach discipline or critical thinking....people either "get it" or they don't. Most gamblers are on the compulsive side (understatement).....they can't "pass" the "action". A WINNING gambler only bets when he thinks he has everyone else over the barrel. In horse racing that means finding horses that run well at the RIGHT ODDS, when most (others) are WRONG about that race. You can work as hard as you want and be a math or computer genius...you either catch on to this or you lose all the time. I don't care if you are betting two cockaroaches racing across the room, you don't pull out a dime until you think you know which one is faster or you know the guy you are betting against is a fool or wrong more times than hes right. Theres a human element to it that you must be able to understand...its an art. Even understanding all this, i make mistakes constantly and lose..you gotta learn how to lose to.......to win...theres no such thing as a formula.......Mamma called it gambling for a reason.

An excellent post

[lamboguy]

all forms of skillful gambling revert back to odds. when one bets sports its not enough to say that Pittsburgh is a much better team than Oakland. for numbers sake, you have to assign how much better they are either with money odds or points. if you think that the Steelers are 7 points better and line of the game is 8, maybe you can get lucky and give the 8 and get away with it, but eventually you will get cleaned out. in order to win with that bet you probably need to be giving 6 or less.

the same thing happens in horses, if you aren't getting more than your horse is worth you will be a loser no matter how good a picker you are.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the same thing happens in horses, if you aren't getting more than your horse is worth you will be a loser no matter how good a picker you are.

Horse racing has huge overlays. But if a player wants to stick with what every other player is doing, and bet low priced favorites, they'll never have a chance at much except entertaining themselves. It's not until a player can spot a substantial margin that this game become rewarding.

[sammy the sage]

still need your jock in ANY PARTICULAR race to give 100%...many times they don't...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by pondman

Horse racing has huge overlays. But if a player wants to stick with what every other player is doing, and bet low priced favorites, they'll never have a chance at much except entertaining themselves. It's not until a player can spot a substantial margin that this game become rewarding.

sometimes you can find value in very short priced horses. a few weeks ago there was an Alabama bred stake race at The Fair Grounds. i had the eventual winner at .10 to the dollar. the Scot Gelner trained entry wound up going off at 1/2. that is pretty decent value if you ask me. the horse paid 5 times more than he should have paid in my mind. when you look at it, its a much better play than betting a horse going off at 10-1 that should have been 8-1. but i do agree, finding value in favorites are few and far between.

there are 2 very important parts to the example i just made though. first you have to have a spot on odds model and second you have to be able to anticipate what the odds will look like after the horses leave the gate.

[acorn54]

well the op question "why is this game so hard to beat", speaks volumes for the reason younger blood doesn't gravitate to gambling on horseraces. the other forms of gambling are much less demanding, to obtain a positive expectancy in a much shorter time.
i don't know how many people responding to this thread have participated in the stock market, or poker, but i have, and its been my experience that it requires alot shorter learning curve to get into positive expectancy.

[dasch]

When you have a winning effort horse but due to the trip ends up running 5th combined with pace that can also take a winning effort off the board, you end up with under certain circumstances taking a horse from running 1st to last.

That type of volatility is what makes this game so great. It also unfortunately makes it too complex for the average person.(I am not trying to say us horseplayers are so great but it definitely says we all love a challenge)

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by acorn54

well the op question "why is this game so hard to beat", speaks volumes for the reason younger blood doesn't gravitate to gambling on horseraces. the other forms of gambling are much less demanding, to obtain a positive expectancy in a much shorter time.
i don't know how many people responding to this thread have participated in the stock market, or poker, but i have, and its been my experience that it requires alot shorter learning curve to get into positive expectancy.

I've talked about this before but i think it bears repeating. Why do people all of a sudden need to be full fledged experts to make horse wagers? People toss millions into lotteries every day, they have no problem parting with their money on a wing and a prayer, why not put some of that "discretionary income" into the races? People are allowed to bet random numbers at the track, i know none of us here on this board would stop them!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I've talked about this before but i think it bears repeating. Why do people all of a sudden need to be full fledged experts to make horse wagers? People toss millions into lotteries every day, they have no problem parting with their money on a wing and a prayer, why not put some of that "discretionary income" into the races? People are allowed to bet random numbers at the track, i know none of us here on this board would stop them!

People throw money at the lottery because the payoff is potentially life-changing. The racetrack does not usually promise such riches.

And people play numbers at the roulette because the takeout is only about 5%.

Roulette on horseback with a 20%+ takeout just doesn't have a good ring to it...

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I've talked about this before but i think it bears repeating. Why do people all of a sudden need to be full fledged experts to make horse wagers? People toss millions into lotteries every day, they have no problem parting with their money on a wing and a prayer, why not put some of that "discretionary income" into the races? People are allowed to bet random numbers at the track, i know none of us here on this board would stop them!

That's what they used to do, before the lotteries became legal. When lotteries were legalized, it didn't take long for people to realize that after paying for gas, $2 for parking, $3 to get in, $2 (then) for the Form, and 50c for a program, they could have walked down to the local liquor store and bought seven $1 lottery tickets.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And people play numbers at the roulette because the takeout is only about 5%.

That's the guaranteed disadvantage-- 5% loss on every consistent bet. You can't win money.

Horse racing can have positive advantage. I say it can be much greater than 10%.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pondman

That's the guaranteed disadvantage-- 5% loss on every consistent bet. You can't win money.

Horse racing can have positive advantage. I say it can be much greater than 10%.

Yes...horse racing can have a positive advantage.

But about 98-99% of the horseplayers are not sure whether this is true or not...even though they have played this game for many years.

In fact...the vast majority of the horseplayers lose much more than 5% when they play their game of choice.

So, the argument could be made that they would be much better off if they headed for the roulette table instead.

Heck...they might even get a free buffet coupon there...