What will amaze you about a handicapper?

[antigeekess]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

99 9/10% of everyone loses at this game. even if you are good at it, its a lot tougher than it ever was and there are no signs that it is getting any easier.

today even with the big rebates its tougher to win. pari-mutuel is a zero sum gain, the more you bet, the less chance you have.

See, with all the data available online now, I would think it would have to be 'easier' than ever before.

I keep hearing about these rebates, though. Would like to find out more.

[Overlay]

I've always been especially impressed by any handicapper who can consistently make reliable judgments based on subjective/qualitative criteria such as visual inspection, intuition, or personal memory/experience, not just as to which horse is most likely to win a given race, but of what any particular horse's chance of winning a race is, and whether a horse or combination is worth a bet at its posted odds or probable payoff.

[Longshot6977]

Originally Posted by NarrowRator

What would you like to see done handicapping wise that will amaze you? Please post your comments below.

Someone who can win a pick 4, 5 or 6 with just singles.
Someone who can predict accurate final odds on a horse.
Anyone who can start with $10 on any given day and run it up to $1000 or more the same day.
Someone who can pick the winner in every race for a 10 race card.
Someone who can handicap a race full of first time starters and hit the superfecta with a single ticket.(one horse in each position)

There are many more, but any of the above would amaze me. I remember about 35 years ago when I first got my nifty new Mattel Electronics Horse Race Analyzer (still have this antique item in its box) that it picked the winner on top in 9 races in a row at the Meadowlands. I amazed myself, and was amazed on how well it did.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm amazed I posted on this thread after a 12 pack and half a fifth of Jameson.Total knuckledhead post earlier.Sorry boys.

[thaskalos]

Poker legends Phil Galfond and Tom Dwan started with a very modest bankroll playing at the lowest limits...and eventually elevated themselves to the highest levels that online poker had to offer.

I would like to see a horseplayer do the same thing in our game.

[antigeekess]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Poker legends Phil Galfond and Tom Dwan started with a very modest bankroll playing at the lowest limits...and eventually elevated themselves to the highest levels that online poker had to offer.

I would like to see a horseplayer do the same thing in our game.

I'd like to see that horseplayer, too. Preferably in the mirror.

[Maximillion]

Didnt one poster awhile ago claim he was going to try to run $200 into a half a million in 3 years?

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Turf performance ratings that are even half way accurate.

Michael Pizzola advises to use all turf races in the pp's in handicapping turf races.

As for accurate ratings, I use Cynthia's pars and use $10K as a baseline. To confirm my ratings I use the DRF speed rating--but not the variant--as a confirmation. Turf variants are unreliable as some tracks card only one turf race a day, or one at that distance.

Today's Miesque at Hollywood race 4. I've printed the Hambleton pace figs using the 10k pars for track to track and the DRF speed figure. Past races are form HP Dmr & SA.

E
6) Full Ransom 84 98/182 81

EP
2)Sushi Empire 82 90/172 77

5)Nesso 91 96/187 86
183 84 I use second best race to confirm best race is not abnormal.

P
1)Savings Account 83 89/172 77

S
3)Clenor 89 99/188 87
185 87

4)Love the Desert (sprint)


I don't use sprint races for route races and the DRF speed rating is useless in routes.

This is a 2 year old race with not as much to look at as a race with proven turf ability. But I wanted to post a race before it is run.

Before betting this race I will also determine class, form, jockey/trainer and other factors. Especially the odds.

Clenor is 9-5, and Nesso is 7-2 ML.

So if you don't want to purchase a par book for about $100, at least for turf, the DRF speed fig works well, as long as you don't use the variant. And since the Bris and Beyer speed figures incorporate the variants I don's use or even print them on my PP's.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I'm amazed I posted on this thread after a 12 pack and half a fifth of Jameson.Total knuckledhead post earlier.Sorry boys.

This excuse isn't going to cut it anymore...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This excuse isn't going to cut it anymore...

I usually save it for the big race days and holidays though!!HAHA!!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Poker legends Phil Galfond and Tom Dwan started with a very modest bankroll playing at the lowest limits...and eventually elevated themselves to the highest levels that online poker had to offer.

I would like to see a horseplayer do the same thing in our game.

That is unlikely. Not because it doesn't happen, or couldn't happen, but because the emphasis changes dramatically during the journey. That was especially noticeable in the Sartin groups way back. Everyone was buddy/chummy until they started making a decent profit, then transformed into a me-me-me perspective. The more they made, the greater the tendency to "become invisible"--as in, "How ya doin'?" "Not so good. Maybe about even. Up a little, down a little. This is a tough game to beat. So ... who do you like in the seventh?"

I think the lack of people bragging about their wagering prowess or earnings shows signs of good sense in those people, more than anything else. As Katherine Jung (the young lady who is currently developing data mining apps for the Sha Tin/Happy Valley circuit) observed, "I don't need the accolades or recognition of others. I already have the money."

[traynor]

I think I would be really amazed at a successful handicapper who seemed to need validation of his or her skills in the form of "recognition" of those skills by others. That need seems to expose an underlying desire for acceptance and pats on the head derived from a lack of real self-confidence. And a lack of self-efficacy and the internal locus of control that seems (to me) to be the hallmark of successful, long-term bettors.

[antigeekess]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think I would be really amazed at a successful handicapper who seemed to need validation of his or her skills in the form of "recognition" of those skills by others. That need seems to expose an underlying desire for acceptance and pats on the head derived from a lack of real self-confidence. And a lack of self-efficacy and the internal locus of control that seems (to me) to be the hallmark of successful, long-term bettors.

I think you're exactly right. I'll bet my neighbor does, too. He's a member of "Everything Anonymous" as he says, including Gamblers Anonymous, but he's dropped hints that he "used to" be successful at the horses.

Funny thing is, if I click the wireless icon in the right lower portion of this screen, the closest one it shows next to mine is called "Big Whale."

[VastinMT]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think I would be really amazed at a successful handicapper who seemed to need validation of his or her skills in the form of "recognition" of those skills by others. That need seems to expose an underlying desire for acceptance and pats on the head derived from a lack of real self-confidence. And a lack of self-efficacy and the internal locus of control that seems (to me) to be the hallmark of successful, long-term bettors.

This quote makes me wonder what Traynor thinks an Internet forum about handicapping is REALLY about.

(Hope this isn't a hijack -- always found his thoughts stimulating.)

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think I would be really amazed at a successful handicapper who seemed to need validation of his or her skills in the form of "recognition" of those skills by others. That need seems to expose an underlying desire for acceptance and pats on the head derived from a lack of real self-confidence. And a lack of self-efficacy and the internal locus of control that seems (to me) to be the hallmark of successful, long-term bettors.

Great poker players don't sit in the bigger games because they want to impress the bystanders; they gravitate to the bigger games because that's where they can best utilize their skills.

I suspect the same can be said about the great horseplayers.

IMO...a great horseplayer would be wasting his talents if he were limiting himself to betting, say...$20 a race. It would be the equivalent of a man with a PhD in economics choosing to work at a minimum-wage job. It would make no sense at all.

Yes...horseplaying is much more "secretive" than poker playing is...because the horseplayer does not make his wagers in publc view. So, it would be highly unlikely that we would ever get to know how much a great horseplayer is really betting. But it would still be nice to see a professional horseplayer living in a million dollar+ home...and driving a $250,000 car -- like, say, Patrik Antonius does. I think it would be great advertising for all the horseplaying newcomers that our game is trying so desperately to attract.

Anyway...that's what I would find amazing about a handicapper.

Is there anything that would amaze YOU about a handicapper, Traynor?