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Old 10-28-2016, 10:09 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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G1 Breeders Cup Sprint

I feel pretty safe in posting this as there are only 9 entered. Yep. Just 9.

Fairly odd for a typical BC race that draws the max.

Welp...., here I go with my 1st BC breakdown:

A.P. Indian: Not sure a sprinter can have a better year than this guy. 6 for 6 with 4 Graded Stakes wins at 3 different tracks. The real question could be "just who has he beat". Sure, I get that, but this field isn't exactly full of G1 winning royalty either. Major factor, and could well be the favorite.

Delta Bluesman:
I've always liked this one, and his last in which he came from off the lead could be key. This 6YO has never been keen on passing horses, even as a sprinter, yet closed hard and late last out. Has great speed of foot like many others in here (obviously), and could be a big player in exotics, and a possible bomber.

Drefong:
The Baffert will be bet. Lightly raced, but wins by daylight time in and time out. Hell, tough to find the 2nd place horse in his win photos even from a blimp. The only real question remaining for this guy is if he can roll on with a contested lead? Then again, will he get one? Likely chalk. Will be really tough.

Joking:
No, no I'm not. This deep closer is in off of his career best effort as a 7YO. By far in his best form, but this is a tough task to ask him to get this one done. Love the entry, just not sure he is good enough.

Limousine Liberal: OK. So he can't beat AP or Delta. Then again, can he do it at Santa? Really solid horse that rarely runs a bad race (unless you consider his 11th in last years BC Sprint). Would not be shocked if he won.

Lord Nelson:
4s are wild for this guy. A 4YO with 4 wins in 4 races this year. This 4YO has fired right from the get go on the connections plans of sprinting. Holds home court advantage as well and has Mr. Baffert in his barn. This is one of my solid selections going into the BC, just hoping I can get 4/1 or more.

Masochistic: Has completely romped in his last two races and rolls in on what is likely a career best effort. Post position could be key as he is a "need the lead" type. Dangerous entry with local connections that has run well here before.

Mind Your Biscuits:
Deep closer would need a complete pace meltdown and essentially the entire field to not run well. Won't have on any ticket.

Noholdingback Bear: Class? That is the question. Sure, he can beat Biscuits, but can he beat the others in here? A front-ender that doesn't finish. I'll pass.

SUMMARY: I'm likely chalky with an AP/Lord Ex and in trying to fit other things underneath. Probably fire a Lord/Limo Ex as well. Still all over Lord Nelson and hopefully can get 4/1 or better. Will fire at 3/1.
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Old 10-28-2016, 11:42 PM   #2
Secondbest
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Very nice breakdown.
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Old 10-29-2016, 06:49 AM   #3
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I think Lord Nelson probably goes off as the favorite and he probably should with the home court advantage. I like him over the very consistent AP Indian.

I'm a Masochistic fan but believe he's past his prime.

Defrong hasn't faced anything this good yet, have to try and beat at short odds
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Old 10-29-2016, 10:04 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pele polo
I think Lord Nelson probably goes off as the favorite and he probably should with the home court advantage. I like him over the very consistent AP Indian.

I'm a Masochistic fan but believe he's past his prime.

Defrong hasn't faced anything this good yet, have to try and beat at short odds
I like your exacta. Tough race. I'm all for beating the favorite, but it looks like there will be four favorites, and it's risky to toss them all. Baffert has won this race four times,

Ladbrokes 10/29
Lord Nelson(E/P 6) 11/4
Drefong(E/P 7) 7/2
A. P. Indian(E/P 6) 7/2
Masochistic(E 6) 5/1
Noholdingback Bear(E/P 6) 12/1
Joking(S 0) 12/1
Limousine Liberal(E/P 4) 14/1
Delta Bluesman(E/P 6) 20/1
Mind Your Biscuits(S 1) 25/1
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Old 10-29-2016, 10:42 AM   #5
Wiley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pele polo

I'm a Masochistic fan but believe he's past his prime.
This horse has looked great in his works. Ellis said he is much more relaxed and controllable since sustaining a canon bone stress fracture in last years BC sprint.

I think Baffort thinks this guy is his main competition, he was on track and watched and clocked his last work. Connections have pointed to this race and I think he will be tough to beat.

He also looks somewhat tractable now, so not sure he will need the lead, but he is probably the fastest early horse so he might be there anyway, that most likely won't be a bad thing.
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Old 10-30-2016, 11:30 PM   #6
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I think Masochistic will either duel or stalk, and then fold.
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:10 AM   #7
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Bluesman is an attractive price add.


Lord Nelson - I've always seen him as a G2 type. Baffert has him in tremendous condition. His style is very strong here. Deserves to be considered a top contender.

Drefong - Looks like he could be a top miler. This is kind of a different set of dynamics, than he's been running in. Interesting horse. Seems like he can run his own race from a stalking position and then run on. Adversity will show us more about him.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-31-2016 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 10-31-2016, 12:44 PM   #8
Wiley
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Smith rides Masochistic over Drefong.

Navarro says he is sending Bluesman, still don't think he is as fast early as Masochistic. Gate draw might be important.

I assume the track will be it's usual super highway souped up fast for the BC, not sure anyone folds, he might lose, but probably gets a piece.

The Sprint is tough on me most years, 4 for 33, Smile '86 (liked him in 85 too), Reraise '98, Midnight Lute '08 and Trinniberg '12
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Old 10-31-2016, 12:53 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiley
Smith rides Masochistic over Drefong.

Navarro says he is sending Bluesman, still don't think he is as fast early as Masochistic. Gate draw might be important.

I assume the track will be it's usual super highway souped up fast for the BC, not sure anyone folds, he might lose, but probably gets a piece.

The Sprint is tough on me most years, 4 for 33, Smile '86 (liked him in 85 too), Reraise '98, Midnight Lute '08 and Trinniberg '12
He's the quickest of this group, and that's my problem with Masochistic...if he tries to stay with Bluesman early he will pay the price. Fast splits and high pace figs at 6.5f and 7f do not compare to 6f speed, and those runners usually cannot keep up early. Masochistic hasn't even run in a 6f race this year, and he looks underlaid to me.
I will toss him from the top two slots.
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Old 10-31-2016, 02:42 PM   #10
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Joking out with a fever
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:07 PM   #11
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Has Any East coast horse ever won a BC sprint without a race over this track?
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:28 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
Has Any East coast horse ever won a BC sprint without a race over this track?
2014 – Work all Week
2012 - Trinniberg

Didn't look back any farther. Don't know whether you can call Work all Week an east coast horse; ran mostly at Arlington.
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Old 10-31-2016, 05:50 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
He's the quickest of this group, and that's my problem with Masochistic...if he tries to stay with Bluesman early he will pay the price. Fast splits and high pace figs at 6.5f and 7f do not compare to 6f speed, and those runners usually cannot keep up early. Masochistic hasn't even run in a 6f race this year, and he looks underlaid to me.
I will toss him from the top two slots.
This race has all the makings of a 43.4 half.

Which means the jockeys will adjust and someone will clear to 44.4 and not look back.
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Old 10-31-2016, 08:32 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
2014 – Work all Week
2012 - Trinniberg

Didn't look back any farther. Don't know whether you can call Work all Week an east coast horse; ran mostly at Arlington.
Thanks
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Old 11-03-2016, 11:05 AM   #15
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Steve Byk show reporting Lord Nelson is a scratch.
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