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Old 06-21-2018, 11:41 PM   #286
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There are times when poker hands play themselves & nothing is done incorrectly by either player.

Set over set - in this case quads over quads. Quads vs top full house etc etc

There are hands that people are going to go broke with no matter what. All the talk in the world after the fact is not going to change a thing.
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Old 07-06-2018, 07:21 PM   #287
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If you are going to play no limit hold 'em, you need to carefully watch each hand. Note not only obvious stuff like whether they bluff rivers (which even fish notice), but also non-obvious stuff:

1. Bet sizing. This is really important. Indeed, this bigger than basically ANY physical tell for most players.

Here are some examples:

a. The guy who bets big when he has it and small when he doesn't.
b. The guy who bets small when he has it and big when he doesn't.
c. The guy who sizes bets to try and produce a river shove when he flops huge and never does it on a bluff.
d. The guy who raises pre-flop small with a small pair or suited connectors and big with a big pocket pair or big cards.
e. The guy who has no idea about pot size and will always call $100 and fold to $175 (or whatever numbers).
f. Blocking bets-- small lead-outs on the river with middling hands to prevent having to call a big bet.

2. How they play big draws. Do they jam with them or call with them?

3. Do they limp re-raise aces and kings? If they do, their pre-flop raising range first into the pot is capped, which is just absolutely amazingly great information.

4. Will they bet their hand without a flush when a flush comes in, or without a straight when a straight comes in.

5. How strong does their hand have to be to fire three barrels?

6. Obviously, what percentage of hands do they voluntarily come into the pot pre-flop with, and what percentage do they raise and 3-bet with.

Now, put your opponent on a range based on all those things you carefully watched the last 3 hours, and do the math and calculate the pot odds, and you will know whether you can fold a strong hand to a big river bet.
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Old 07-15-2018, 06:21 AM   #288
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xxx-rated poker at da shoe......

ok poker fans, following our halloween drubbing in atlantic city, we continue our 2017 season with another invigorating contest at the horseshoe baltimore.

we're in 3/6 limit company and taking yet another pounding as i just cannot escape this run of bad cards.

my neighbor tries to entertain me by putting his phone on the table so we can watch a porn convention in new jersey.

a nice gesture indeed, but one that fails to raise my spirits (or anything else) as i only drag one side pot in nearly four hours of play.

finally i score with A9s in a pot that was larger than it should've been thanks to Q6 off raising from the small blind.

but that's all.

i don't win another hand.

thank you for reading.

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Old 07-16-2018, 02:39 AM   #289
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wsop main event final table. some opinions. welcome everyone's thoughts.

really love watching every hand, rather than a highlight show.
once cada was out it was clear that cynn was the most likely winner, despite his 3/5 chip position and a huge gap from the chip lead. when cada and miles flipped for their tournament lives i was rooting for cada so we could watch the two top shelf players go at it. that said, i felt the last 3 year's final tables lacked true world class quality play. two years in a row you had wire to wire chip leaders. and this year you had the potential for a treat but the wrong player won the flip. since they began offering every hand coverage there are two champions that i feel would win these games almost always. greg merson and martin jacobson.

love the break desk team of ali nejad and nick schulman. schulman is a beast. great at articulating the nuances of the game so everyone can understand. if only he could learn to say versus instead of verse. nobody's perfect.
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Old 07-18-2018, 03:32 AM   #290
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bad beat or beaten badly?

ok poker fans we continue our 2017 season in another small stakes limit hold 'em game in a casino that i will keep anonymous.

i end up winning $21 in this game but suffer a bad experience that i always worried would happen.

we're about 2/3 of the way through the session when i fold a small pocket pair to a raise.

had i called here i would've flopped a boat, rivered quads, AND LOST THE HAND to flopped quads.

in this casino, at this particular time, this would've paid me a bad beat jackpot of slightly more than $30,000.

certainly not "life changing" money but enough to keep my spirits up. i always thought i'd go numb if (when) this happened and i was mildly surprised that i didn't feel much of anything. this particular "loss" however when combined with my overall bad run and declining benefits at the casinos would ultimately dampen my enthusiasm for the game.

thank you for reading.

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Old 07-19-2018, 09:29 PM   #291
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ok poker fans we continue our 2017 season in another small stakes limit hold 'em game in a casino that i will keep anonymous.

i end up winning $21 in this game but suffer a bad experience that i always worried would happen.

we're about 2/3 of the way through the session when i fold a small pocket pair to a raise.

had i called here i would've flopped a boat, rivered quads, AND LOST THE HAND to flopped quads.

in this casino, at this particular time, this would've paid me a bad beat jackpot of slightly more than $30,000.

certainly not "life changing" money but enough to keep my spirits up. i always thought i'd go numb if (when) this happened and i was mildly surprised that i didn't feel much of anything. this particular "loss" however when combined with my overall bad run and declining benefits at the casinos would ultimately dampen my enthusiasm for the game.

thank you for reading.

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The thing is, it's generally a -EV play.

Here's some calculations that can give you some guidance on it. The California bad beat jackpots tend to be about $40,000, with $16,000 to the losing hand and $8,000 to the winning hand. When the rake was $6 (it is now $7), I did some calculations on something people do, which is play the hand (and pay the rake) when one player has a big ace and the other player has a big pocket pair (three aces, in that situation, produces aces full of tens or better beaten by four of a kind, the easiest type of jackpot). In that situation, KNOWING what your opponent has, it was just slightly +EV to go ahead and play it if you knew that the big ace was AT or better. It was -EV at A9 (because face cards would kill the jackpot).

So it is incredibly unlikely that calling to hit a quads-against-quads jackpot, not even knowing if another pocket pair is out there, is profitable. Especially if it is only $30,000.
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Old 07-29-2018, 11:37 AM   #292
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quick start with qq??.....

continuing with our 2017 tour, i'm stumbling towards the finish line and still need to get in some play at horseshoe to make caesars diamond for 2018 but find time to fit in a 1-2 game at pen where i'm dealt QQ in the very first hand.

i raise a couple limpers to $15 and the small blind and another player come along.

j 7 2 rainbow on the flop and i fail to shake the small blind who check raises me all in on the turn when another 7 falls.

no one calls the clock but i apologize to the table for taking a lot of time to think about this; again the very first hand i'm dealt in.

it's been a tough year and now i'm positioned to lose $150 just seconds into a game.

but this time i don't lose.

instead i call and hold off A j when a blank comes on the river.

unfortunately though this ends up being my only win of the session.

i do hold on for a $70 win though and get to play some with our old friend THE LION who finishes the year like 88-18 before getting off to another hot start in 2018.

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Old 07-29-2018, 12:06 PM   #293
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let it snow in buffalo....

continuing with our 2017 tour, we're back on the grind to caesars diamond with a sunday afternoon trip to horseshoe baltimore.

driving down 83 to the shoe i'm trying to find the colts score on the radio but i'm not having any luck (no pun intended). anyhow with only three wins on the season they're doing almost as bad as i am on this poker tour.

we start the trip in 1/3 no limit where i grind out a quick $118 win before getting called to our traditional horseshoe game of 3/6 where i also get off to a solid beginning.

on one of horseshoe's many tvs the colts appear to be headed to an 8-7 victory with a late td and two point conversion in an absolute blizzard in buffalo. but the ref calls a penalty on the two point conversion and we head to overtime where tonyk@hsh's good buddy shady mccoy ices the contest for the bills. this sucks for the moment but will eventually result in a better draft pick, so......

back on the felt i flop a straight with dilanesp's favorite limit hand 76s but i can't hold off a club flush that comes on the river.

with Ah Kc though i flop an ace and three clubs against the same villain who flops a baby flush. this time though it's me who rivers the club and drags the pot.

three players in the game are repeatedly taking extended breaks. eventually they all depart leaving the game short and i quit too; still with some work to do to pass 15000 tier credits and secure 2018 diamond status.

thank you for reading.

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Old 07-29-2018, 12:47 PM   #294
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the power of the ace......

ok poker fans we're back with one final report for 2017 and it's from our favorite casino the beautiful horseshoe baltimore!!

we have a long day of gambling ahead of us to secure caesars diamond status for 2018 and we start out at the hold 'em tables in 1/3 no limit company.

this game is going back and forth and really i'm ok with that. i just need to grind out my time for diamond and head back to grantville to figure out what the hell to do with the rest of my life.

i'm up $21 when a popular horseshoe dealer, miss aesthetics, deals me kk in the small blind.

the player utg raises to $12 and five players call.

this seems like a situation where they can all be in each other's way (all the aces could be out) but a king or two could be out there too?

i decide to shove my remaining $220 and just take what's out there.

the original raiser calls with AK and everyone else folds.

9 3 5 rainbow flop.

4 turn.

2 river.

one last time...... THANK YOU FOR READING!

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Old 07-29-2018, 04:33 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by proximity View Post
ok poker fans we're back with one final report for 2017 and it's from our favorite casino the beautiful horseshoe baltimore!!

we have a long day of gambling ahead of us to secure caesars diamond status for 2018 and we start out at the hold 'em tables in 1/3 no limit company.

this game is going back and forth and really i'm ok with that. i just need to grind out my time for diamond and head back to grantville to figure out what the hell to do with the rest of my life.

i'm up $21 when a popular horseshoe dealer, miss aesthetics, deals me kk in the small blind.

the player utg raises to $12 and five players call.

this seems like a situation where they can all be in each other's way (all the aces could be out) but a king or two could be out there too?

i decide to shove my remaining $220 and just take what's out there.

the original raiser calls with AK and everyone else folds.

9 3 5 rainbow flop.

4 turn.

2 river.

one last time...... THANK YOU FOR READING!

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Simply bad variance on what to me would seem like a +EV move by you. The original raiser probably thought they were "somewhat close" to a coin flip thinking you had an underpair, with the added benefit of some extra dead money in the pot in addition to your shove.

In reality, your opponent was in an even worse position as one of the poker calculators shows you with a 69-31 advance pre-flop, which swelled to 85-15 before the turn and 84-16 before the river.

IMO one of the hardest things to understand and have faith in is that if we continue to play a significant number of hands, future results are going to "gravitate closer" to the expected EV.

Cheer up and keep making those +EV decisions. Money will eventually flow your way. So did you make Diamond status, or is that to be revealed in a future post?
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