if you always wanted to go to the races in California...

[ScottJ]

There are some absolutely fundamental issues about racing, California, and younger folks that are being completely missed in this thread, largely because many of us in the discussion are simply older.

Let's start with some economic realities. Students are often graduating college saddled with anywhere from $50,000 to $200,000 in debt and more. Many students actually do not realize the volume of debt (and the cost of servicing that debt) being absorbed. As a university professor, both while getting my graduate degree and now after my commercial career, I bear first-hand witness to the total shift in student collegiate economics (as I am sure many of us have seen as parents).

Many graduating students get their first job and are excited to be part of the economic grind, only to find that automobile prices have gone well into the the tens of thousands of dollars mark and rent prices are ever increasing. In California specifically, reasonable starter homes in the Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos, and Carlsbad areas (about one hour north of Del Mar) will easily range in the $1,000,000-$1,500,000 range.

Salaries in the best of technology companies will be in the $125,000 range (starting plus bonus) for these younger folks wondering how that money stretches to pay the rent. Read some stories about students who have gotten the very best jobs in the north (Google, for example), make $200,000+ per year and live out of their car since they can shower inside the employer's locker room and are trying to save some money.

On the social front, these same younger folks are also the ones who grew up in a two wage earner home, spent weekends on the soccer fields, at dance practice, or in front of a video game console. When was the game passed down to the next generation? In fact, it wasn't. Even the major sports leagues are facing an aging demographic - it is just that there are still more baseball park visitors than those who come to the track.

Just as harness racing died west of the Mississippi many years back, you are watching the economic and social demise of all racing in California.

And if you have made it this far (sorry for the post's length), you know what is funny? Never once did we talk about the appeal of the races themselves which is exactly what you are asking race track executives to market. The appeal is not even on the radar for discussion.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There are some absolutely fundamental issues about racing, California, and younger folks that are being completely missed in this thread, largely because many of us in the discussion are simply older.

Let's start with some economic realities. Students are often graduating college saddled with anywhere from $50,000 to $200,000 in debt and more. Many students actually do not realize the volume of debt (and the cost of servicing that debt) being absorbed. As a university professor, both while getting my graduate degree and now after my commercial career, I bear first-hand witness to the total shift in student collegiate economics (as I am sure many of us have seen as parents).

Many graduating students get their first job and are excited to be part of the economic grind, only to find that automobile prices have gone well into the the tens of thousands of dollars mark and rent prices are ever increasing. In California specifically, reasonable starter homes in the Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos, and Carlsbad areas (about one hour north of Del Mar) will easily range in the $1,000,000-$1,500,000 range.

Salaries in the best of technology companies will be in the $125,000 range (starting plus bonus) for these younger folks wondering how that money stretches to pay the rent. Read some stories about students who have gotten the very best jobs in the north (Google, for example), make $200,000+ per year and live out of their car since they can shower inside the employer's locker room and are trying to save some money.

On the social front, these same younger folks are also the ones who grew up in a two wage earner home, spent weekends on the soccer fields, at dance practice, or in front of a video game console. When was the game passed down to the next generation? In fact, it wasn't. Even the major sports leagues are facing an aging demographic - it is just that there are still more baseball park visitors than those who come to the track.

Just as harness racing died west of the Mississippi many years back, you are watching the economic and social demise of all racing in California.

And if you have made it this far (sorry for the post's length), you know what is funny? Never once did we talk about the appeal of the races themselves which is exactly what you are asking race track executives to market. The appeal is not even on the radar for discussion.

Are these younger folks also not participating in sports betting?

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I think there's much more to it than that; and in a way, it's much simpler. Times change, cultures change. And since this topic is about California, you can't get much more in the way of evolving and emerging and disappearing subcultures in a short period of time than that state.

We're always being told to look at Eastasian racing. It's a whole different culture that weakens whatever comparisons we're supposed to see in order to employ better methods. (Is PETA a presence in Hong Kong?) The sudden expansion of not just legalized, but aggressively pursued sports betting introduces another cultural shift. The ease with which I can wager on my favorite team's game this week, because it is my favorite team and not the result of extensive research into supposedly useful stats, is more handy than following a backstretch population of nearly 1000 horses or more. Some things are bigger than what we see when we use a microscope to examine racing's ills.

I would say that a sport based on farm animals running around in a circle probably doesn't resonate with a lot of people who grew up in the city or suburbs. Horse racing worked up until the 2000s because people still had a relative who was around who took them to the races who engaged in the slower rural lifestyle and the culture. For this its not a surprise the sport is regressing to its middle America roots, and this is where it will survive.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Are these younger folks also not participating in sports betting?

Back in the 1980s, questions on horse racing and expected value computations were common in mathematics and computer science courses.

In the 2010s, those same questions evolved into casino games and more specifically, poker. (You can find some interesting MIT Open Courseware material on this topic.)

In the 2020s, I have not been asked many questions regarding sports betting, but in the last two years, I have had more questions about cryptocurrency and the blockchain than anything else.

That said, the NCAA reported in a recent survey (April) of mostly college students between 18 and 22 that nearly 60% have bet on sports and 4% do so daily with ~6% reported have lost more than $500.00 in a single day.

https://time.com/6342504/gambling-ad...lege-students/

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Back in the 1980s, questions on horse racing and expected value computations were common in mathematics and computer science courses.

In the 2010s, those same questions evolved into casino games and more specifically, poker. (You can find some interesting MIT Open Courseware material on this topic.)

In the 2020s, I have not been asked many questions regarding sports betting, but in the last two years, I have had more questions about cryptocurrency and the blockchain than anything else.

That said, the NCAA reported in a recent survey (April) of mostly college students between 18 and 22 that nearly 60% have bet on sports and 4% do so daily with ~6% reported have lost more than $500.00 in a single day.

https://time.com/6342504/gambling-ad...lege-students/

I think horse racing clearly lost the battle for online gamblers. That's what is driving what you are describing-- the poker boom in the early 2000's was driven by sites like Party Poker (and later PokerStars and Full Tilt) on people's laptops and desktops and got all the math whizzes interested in poker. Now they are into sports betting, which you do on your phone.

The reality is that horse racing can't compete with either of them because while it's fine to physically place the bets on your phone, this sport requires a bunch of information that isn't really suited to the size of a smartphone screen. Plus watching the races themselves.

I'm not saying lowering takeout, etc., wouldn't help on the margins, but that's the fundamental problem. DraftKings is marketing a product optimized for smartphones in a way horse racing can't be.

[racenomics]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think horse racing clearly lost the battle for online gamblers. That's what is driving what you are describing-- the poker boom in the early 2000's was driven by sites like Party Poker (and later PokerStars and Full Tilt) on people's laptops and desktops and got all the math whizzes interested in poker. Now they are into sports betting, which you do on your phone.

The reality is that horse racing can't compete with either of them because while it's fine to physically place the bets on your phone, this sport requires a bunch of information that isn't really suited to the size of a smartphone screen. Plus watching the races themselves.

I'm not saying lowering takeout, etc., wouldn't help on the margins, but that's the fundamental problem. DraftKings is marketing a product optimized for smartphones in a way horse racing can't be.

I agree. That means marketing going to the track must be the answer. Issue with that is half the tracks these days only exist to have a casino license. That said, you don’t see many people bored at the track when it is a decent facility and halfway good crowd. And it’s a lot cheaper to go to a track, pay $5 admission, bet say $50 lose say $20 of that, and spend $12 in concessions than go to a pro game, spend $100 on cheap seats, $18 on concessions, and $25 for parking and be there for half the time. In theory, racing should have quite good attendance. Most tracks can do what CBY and LS and EMD do

[castaway01]

Let's be blunt for a second---if it wasn't for racinos and other ways for tracks to make money off non-horse-racing wagers, there'd be 20 tracks maximum left in this country. Maybe that's too high a number.

This has been discussed ad naseum, but young people gamble a lot. They don't have the bankroll of us oldsters, but there's a ton of interest in it even down to high school. It's been mainstreamed and is in these kids' faces all the time. But this is sports wagering, not horse racing. And why would someone just starting gambling want to learn racing with 2-3 times the takeout that they know nothing about, where they think they understand football/basketball and it's easily accessible right on their phones?

Racing could have done everything right and still faced an uphill battle. They didn't, and now the obstacles are so much bigger.

[thaskalos]

Young people love to gamble, and they have shown that by their participation in fantasy sports, poker, and now sports betting. The notion that these young people lack the will to educate themselves so they can cope with a complicated but beatable gambling game is utter bullshit. I happen to own every worthwhile poker book that has been published in the last 20 years, and these books are WAY more advanced than what can be found in the horse handicapping literature of the last 50 years. And yet...plenty of young poker players have devoured these poker books, in spite of their complexity.

The young people of today have shunned horse racing because the game's reputation is dubious, as is its profit potential. They have chosen other more attractive gambling opportunities...and I can't say that I blame them.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Young people love to gamble, and they have shown that by their participation in fantasy sports, poker, and now sports betting. The notion that these young people lack the will to educate themselves so they can cope with a complicated but beatable gambling game is utter bullshit. I happen to own every worthwhile poker book that has been published in the last 20 years, and these books are WAY more advanced than what can be found in the horse handicapping literature of the last 50 years. And yet...plenty of young poker players have devoured these poker books, in spite of their complexity.

The young people of today have shunned horse racing because the game's reputation is dubious, as is its profit potential. They have chosen other more attractive gambling opportunities...and I can't say that I blame them.

Sure, but I have played live poker for a decade and a half at decent stakes and I have probably faced less than 30 players in all that time who have read The Mathematics of Poker or The Intelligent Poker Player. Very few gamblers want to study.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by racenomics

Does anyone here think that racing would be more successful if you could only bet the races on track. If I wanted to bet the derby, I would have to go down to my local track to place the bet. That would drive many more people to the track, and there would be more new fans as you become a fan by going to the track. Not to mention the $ that the ADWs take out of the sport

Welcome to Texas….

It hasn’t been good for racing here.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Sure, but I have played live poker for a decade and a half at decent stakes and I have probably faced less than 30 players in all that time who have read The Mathematics of Poker or The Intelligent Poker Player. Very few gamblers want to study.

It's one thing to study...and an entirely different thing to actually implement what you have read. My point is that there are enough studious young gamblers out there who would adequately deal with the complexities of horse racing...if they deemed it a worthwhile gambling game to participate in.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

You will NEVER get new people in the game. It holds not one iota of interest to anyone born after about 1980.

Very few if any.

After 2000…even less interest.

It’s too much work to even come close to winning. There is no real edge left. Everyone gets basically the same data. Even when you do have a slight edge your odds are bet down to nothing

The computer/internet age did nothing for, and even hurt players in some ways. It made it easier to bet, but it equalized the opportunity for “the pool” to all have the same info.

You mean unlike the juicy edge we all enjoy with Craps, Blackjack, Slots and my favorite Roulette. Not to mention the especially easy sports betting.

Not one iota of interest for anyone that's 43 years old?

What a bunch of happy horseshit!!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Let's be blunt for a second---if it wasn't for racinos and other ways for tracks to make money off non-horse-racing wagers, there'd be 20 tracks maximum left in this country. Maybe that's too high a number.

This has been discussed ad naseum, but young people gamble a lot. They don't have the bankroll of us oldsters, but there's a ton of interest in it even down to high school. It's been mainstreamed and is in these kids' faces all the time. But this is sports wagering, not horse racing. And why would someone just starting gambling want to learn racing with 2-3 times the takeout that they know nothing about, where they think they understand football/basketball and it's easily accessible right on their phones?

Racing could have done everything right and still faced an uphill battle. They didn't, and now the obstacles are so much bigger.

Spot on. I thought horseplayers took the know-it-all cake before I began hanging out a bit at the mnr sports parlor. EVERYBODY..and I mean EVERYBODY considers themselves an infallible expert on all things NFL.

In fact, the whole scene has a familiar feel I couldn't quite pinpoint until it finally dawned on me: The way guys debate and pontificate there is how players used to hold forth trackside...back when people still showed UP trackside. And that seems like the Paleozoic era.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Spot on. I thought horseplayers took the know-it-all cake before I began hanging out a bit at the mnr sports parlor. EVERYBODY..and I mean EVERYBODY considers themselves an infallible expert on all things NFL.

In fact, the whole scene has a familiar feel I couldn't quite pinpoint until it finally dawned on me: The way guys debate and pontificate there is how players used to hold forth trackside...back when people still showed UP trackside. And that seems like the Paleozoic era.

You hit the nail on the head right there! That's how the horseplayers used to debate and pontificate trackside in years past. And, what happened to those loyal and dedicated horseplayers of yesteryear? They abandoned the game in droves! And this brings us to the most important question in this entire debate:

If the game couldn't even maintain the loyal and dedicated fanbase that it used to have...how can they possibly expect to attract the younger gamblers of today, who have already been indoctrinated in other more familiar gambling games?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Spot on. I thought horseplayers took the know-it-all cake before I began hanging out a bit at the mnr sports parlor. EVERYBODY..and I mean EVERYBODY considers themselves an infallible expert on all things NFL.

In fact, the whole scene has a familiar feel I couldn't quite pinpoint until it finally dawned on me: The way guys debate and pontificate there is how players used to hold forth trackside...back when people still showed UP trackside. And that seems like the Paleozoic era.

Exactly right. The devious genius of football betting is precisely that 1/2 or more of the male adult population thinks themselves experts on football who can accurately predict results even though in reality they don't know diddly.

And horse racing used to attract know it alls like that, but no longer does.