what did this derby teach you?

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

7. Completely dismiss any success at Tampa.... Although already knew this.

The winner won at Tampa.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by depalma113

The winner won at Tampa.

ok correction. The Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

[AirNate012]

Stick with your initials thoughts and take a stand on horse (s) you think will win, and long shots you like to hit the board and play accordingly. Over thinking this derby cost me big.

[soonboomer]

True distance breeding is a thing of the past in American racing. That's one reason the classics, when run at an honest pace, become a stagger fest coming down the stretch. One reason favorites have won 5 straight is that the best horses at a mile and an eighth are now always the best horses at a mile and a quarter. They went 53 and change the last half and 26 and change the last quarter off an honest pace, and nothing could come close to running Always Dreaming down. It wasn't always this way.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

ok correction. The Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

Street Sense came out of the Tampa Bay Derby.

You can't throw out prep races. The best three year old could be in any of them.

For instance, does anyone doubt that despite the current drought, the Wood will have another Derby winner sometime? Because odds are, the best horse will be located in New York one year because it is a top circuit.

There's no substitute for actually handicapping which preps are strongest

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

Do favorites win 100% of the time normally?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Do favorites win 100% of the time normally?

Only under the pts system

[no breathalyzer]

What i leaned was for the 3 days i was there that was the biggest golden rail i seen in a long time.. instead of making adjustments i just drank my ass off in the infield and looked and the beautiful scenery walking around.

It rained for at least 60 hrs straight.. how that turf course was listed as good in amazing to me.. im guessing the water drains towards the infield.. no one wanted any part of the rail

[chiguy]

If your girlfriend and best friend have the same birthday (1-5) and you box that exacta regularly for a hunch, do it in the Derby too. Cannot believe I didn't do it.

[PowerUpPaynter]

in reference to this 'golden rail' I rewatched the broadcast and right after the race when the outrider went up to Johnny V and it was caught on mic, he said "I told you stay on the rail" so there probably was a bias but I think he would of won anyway

[Robert Fischer]

learned/reminded

Keep it simple, and tackle the high percentage opinions with a top->down approach from a variety of angles.
Plan out your strategy, and tactics, ahead of time, with a specific plan.

The big days often reward a player who has more insight into even the most general of things, - provided they are decisive.

You don't have to challenge yourself ,and tackle a bunch of multi-layered highly-specific predictions, although it is worth constructing a few light tickets when the payouts are of the boxcar variety.

[señorclipclop]

Put your top two over the next eight in the tri. Or, just bet the turf races.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Street Sense came out of the Tampa Bay Derby.

You can't throw out prep races. The best three year old could be in any of them.

For instance, does anyone doubt that despite the current drought, the Wood will have another Derby winner sometime? Because odds are, the best horse will be located in New York one year because it is a top circuit.

There's no substitute for actually handicapping which preps are strongest

Totally agree, don't "auto toss" anything. Winners have come from every prep. Except Dubai, but that will happen some day too. Try to figure out which circuit is the strongest. I am wary of Tampa because its just a weird place. When those two didn't fire in the Blue Grass, I tossed both of those short priced winners that shipped to Keenland.

I judged the GP scene to be the strongest horses this year. Classic Empire and Irish War Cry threw duds there, shipped and came to life. Practical Joke shipped out and ran well defeating the short priced horses from Tampa. When Always Dreaming beat the piss out of the GP horses that stuck around........I kind of thought he was good to go. The crap about his workouts was garbage, yes, he was keen, but he was feeling it and wanted to run. Sometimes that's a good thing, damn horse is kicking the stall door to race!

I learned to throw in horses that close the fastest in their last prep, that cost me that big exacta.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

To expand on this and respond to a few questions...

The top five choices all finished in the top half of the field, and the chalk and 3rd choice ran 1st & 4th...in a 20 horse field.
I cannot verify (cuz BRIS took away my access to chart archives...grrr!) but I seem to recall that the trifecta in the 2016 Derby was one of the lowest ever.
The 2015 Derby with Amer. Pharaoh, Dortmund & Firing Line I seem to recall was kinda chalky as well.
Comm Curve ran 2nd to Chrome in 2014 and probably blew up the exotics...maybe Danza ran 3rd???

Again, the memory isn't as sharp without access to the chart archives. If anyone has them I would appreciate it...they may prove me wrong, but my point was that this race hasn't been as wildly unpredictable (to the masses) as some we've seen in the 15yrs or so prior to the changes in the points system.

EDIT:
In Chrome's 2014 Derby the top three choices were in the superfecta, with Comm Curve the only outlier

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

EDIT:
In Chrome's 2014 Derby the top three choices were in the superfecta, with Comm Curve the only outlier

Same with Orb in 2013. Golden Soul was the lone board bomber.

We're still seeing board bombers. Further, while the bona fide tote board favorites are on a winning streak, it's not like favorites and near favorites have not won most renewals.