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View Poll Results: Which information is more valuable in handicapping the derby?
Everything I've learned from the prep season. 27 69.23%
The information and buzz the 3 weeks before the derby. 12 30.77%
Voters: 39. This poll is closed

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Old 04-30-2017, 09:56 PM   #16
CincyHorseplayer
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I've hired a sniper with a tranquilizer gun. The favorite will not be winning. Bet accordingly!
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:28 PM   #17
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Good man, Cincy!! I always said that should be an option from the stands.
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Old 05-01-2017, 12:06 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by burnsy View Post
Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.

Keep it real.
Have to disagree. The KD presents the greatest single race opportunity for a life changing score. Take a stand, and live with the results. I have turned major scores into minor ones too often by hedging my bets. The KD is no time to take an "interim position".
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Old 05-01-2017, 08:19 PM   #19
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what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .

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Old 05-01-2017, 08:38 PM   #20
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you meant 1/4 of the polled, right
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Old 05-01-2017, 08:59 PM   #21
glengarry
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .
Let's just stick with works. Most important? No. Essential. Without a doubt. Betting off works alone is pointless, but not giving careful consideration to how a horse is working, especially for this race, is just plain foolish.
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Old 05-01-2017, 10:12 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .
Well, no offense, but the question is way too black and white with only 2 answers.

I think most will sit somewhere in between. Firm believer in the last 2 preps with more weight given to the 9F preps, but one simply cannot ignore works and/or 'shape' of the horse.

Take Girvin as an example. You don't think his 'shape' coming into the Derby should be a consideration?
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Old 05-02-2017, 01:36 AM   #23
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I am sticking to my Gunnevera
Right now, he's one many I'll take a stand against especially if he gets a bad draw........
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Old 05-02-2017, 10:11 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by glengarry View Post
Have to disagree. The KD presents the greatest single race opportunity for a life changing score. Take a stand, and live with the results. I have turned major scores into minor ones too often by hedging my bets. The KD is no time to take an "interim position".
How are you going to make a score like that betting one horse? Bet 10,000 to win? That's what I don't understand about people on here. They are all "rah, rah" about one horse.....its hilarious. I've had many I've had to sign for in my life time. Every year the guy that does my taxes asks....."how many this year?" With account wagering there's no way I can get around it. Some of the longshots have been given out on here in the selections portion since I've been on here. Never once in my life did a score like that involve just one horse. I'm not talking about hedging, I'm talking about incorporating horses to hit a big ticket.

My biggest pick 3 and 4 tickets have involved the "all" button on days like this when people are making some ridiculous odds on a race horse.....that loses. All you need is a key horse and a supporting cast. That post was meant for people that love one horse and think they are going to score with it alone.

If you can tell me how to make a huge score on one horse without betting a ton to win, I'm all ears.

I'm just saying I wont be betting "Win" in the Derby, I'm looking for Exactas, pic 3 and 4 and the double. Pretty much what you just said, but somehow we are in disagreement? I just don't get some people.
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Old 05-02-2017, 10:30 AM   #25
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Gunnevera

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Originally Posted by magwell View Post
Right now, he's one many I'll take a stand against especially if he gets a bad draw........
He's my choice, but the recent defection of some speed from the field has me a bit worried about him getting home first
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Old 05-02-2017, 12:20 PM   #26
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Does anyone else think that Gunnevera looks tired/not eager?? Or is that just how he is when he trains?
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Old 05-02-2017, 12:25 PM   #27
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How are you going to make a score like that betting one horse? Bet 10,000 to win? That's what I don't understand about people on here. They are all "rah, rah" about one horse.....its hilarious. I've had many I've had to sign for in my life time. Every year the guy that does my taxes asks....."how many this year?" With account wagering there's no way I can get around it. Some of the longshots have been given out on here in the selections portion since I've been on here. Never once in my life did a score like that involve just one horse. I'm not talking about hedging, I'm talking about incorporating horses to hit a big ticket.

My biggest pick 3 and 4 tickets have involved the "all" button on days like this when people are making some ridiculous odds on a race horse.....that loses. All you need is a key horse and a supporting cast. That post was meant for people that love one horse and think they are going to score with it alone.

If you can tell me how to make a huge score on one horse without betting a ton to win, I'm all ears.

I'm just saying I wont be betting "Win" in the Derby, I'm looking for Exactas, pic 3 and 4 and the double. Pretty much what you just said, but somehow we are in disagreement? I just don't get some people.
Actually, we are in total agreement. I go after the exotics, but not by spreading on the win end. Just my opinion, but if one feels the need to use 5 horses in the win slot, then they don't have an opinion on the race. I know plenty of "spreaders", and most cash a lot of tax tickets. They also burn through a lot of money. I have not made a win bet in the KD in a long time. This race is not the time to take 10 to one on the win end. I can do that on any given day. I'm looking out fill out a ticket. In a 20 horse field, with chaos of some sort usually a given, it's hard enough to construct a ticket with any confidence with one horse on top, let alone multiple horses. But feel free to do it your way.
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Old 05-07-2017, 12:30 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by glengarry View Post
Actually, we are in total agreement. I go after the exotics, but not by spreading on the win end. Just my opinion, but if one feels the need to use 5 horses in the win slot, then they don't have an opinion on the race. I know plenty of "spreaders", and most cash a lot of tax tickets. They also burn through a lot of money. I have not made a win bet in the KD in a long time. This race is not the time to take 10 to one on the win end. I can do that on any given day. I'm looking out fill out a ticket. In a 20 horse field, with chaos of some sort usually a given, it's hard enough to construct a ticket with any confidence with one horse on top, let alone multiple horses. But feel free to do it your way.
Right on! I always stick to my guns, the chatter that goes on the two weeks before is a joke. People don't understand athletes, they are all the same, some can practice and play well, some are the opposite. I've seen some that can hit like Babe Ruth at batting practice, during a game they can't hit a lick. Then there are some with talent that goof off during practice but in the game they are sluggers. The point being predicting outcomes should be based on past performances in a real game situation. These horses are all good just to be here. Of course most are going to look good in the morning. My question is, "how do you run in a real race?"

I used the and the in everything. I missed that huge exacta but the horizontal bets came my way. We do agree, I used two in my doubles and pic 3's...........score, cause I shut out the hype and stick to the form.....(guns). People over analyze this race and many others (races) to death. Especially the works, its the only race people even talk about works endlessly......why? Hype, hype, hype. You won't hear this much about works until next April.......guaranteed.
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