My Ky Derby Picks

[Cratos]

I am not sure what the weather will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs at Derby time which should be between 6p-7p, but given what is happening now and what is forecasted to happen, I expect a muddy to drying out track when the Derby race goes off.

Therefore, who will be the Derby contenders and who will be the Derby pretenders to get the bed of roses?

A case might be able to be made for several different horses, but I come down to four and they are in order of preference:

Classic Empire – This horse broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the off goings albeit it was a sprint and his breeding suggests the off goings shouldn’t affect his performance.

Adding to this, his Arkansas Derby victory gives him a performance with turns virtually the same as Churchill and “turn size” is a major adjustment to a shipping horse.

I have him getting the last 1/8M of the Arkansas Derby in 12.46 seconds which projects the last quarter of the Derby for him to be 24.90 seconds.

Lastly, if there is a negative to this horse, it is his jockey Julian Leparoux; he can make a race an adventure.

Always Dreaming – Some might consider his trainer, Todd Pletcher “snake bit” when it comes to the Derby, but my question is: “Did he always have the horse to win the Derby?” Probably not, but given his status as a premier trainer, I assume he gets offers to enter many horses; some who are not Derby material.

However, Always Dreaming appears to be legit and after coming to Pletcher’s barn with Velazquez in the irons he has been very good and the Florida Derby was his “coming out” party.

Always Dreaming was very professional in the Florida Derby although being wide in the first turn, Velazquez could settle him down and move him closer to the rail where he would catch the leader, Three Rules in the fourth quarter and draw off to an authoritative 6-1/2 length victory in a good 1:47.47 final time while getting the last 1/8M in 12.53 seconds.

Practical Joke - This horse might be a stretch, but he is intriguing and deserves to be in the conversation.

In the Bluegrass Stakes his cumulative pace average (feet/second) was equal to or greater than any other horse in the race for any segment of the race.

At the mile mark of that race he was timed in 1:37.70 seconds against the eventual winner, Irap time of 1:37.52 seconds, the story when closely examined is a bit different because while Irap had a .18 second lead over Practical Joke at the mile, Practical Joke loss .16 seconds more than Irap because of turn effect making the difference only .02 seconds or virtually a dead heat.

Its gets better in the final 1/8M where Practical Joke out run Irap 13.02 seconds to 13.07 seconds and to lose the race by .13 seconds which can be attributed to `his turn effect time loss at the mile point of the race.

State of Honor – This horse is notorious for taking the lead and faltering at the end, but the probable off track should allow him to carry his speed longer; therefore, hanging on for part of the Superfecta.

[098poi]

Nice write up Cratos. I think you are on to something.

[f2tornado]

Your top 3 are same as mine. I also think State of Honor is a potential board buster if speed holds and a piece or two of chalk breaks.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I'm tossing Always Dreaming...think she will be like Paradise Woods today....she didn't beat much 2 back and had a perfect, trip last out...Gunnavera didn't seem that he was pointing to win last out, like it was a set-up for this...so I prefer Gunnavera to Always Dreaming...seems like a pace free for half the field early which will proly confuse Always Dreaming...maybe for third...at best.

The more I look at it the weaker the field seems...I know those Dubai horses don't do well but I put a flyer on him for fun...will use Sonneteer also cause his odds will be boxcar...Gormley has proved to be gutsy and can run all day long without tiring on maybe a tiring muddy race surface...

[Secondbest]

I'm also on Classic Empire.

[Secondbest]

Classic Empire took some big hit at the start. Too much to overcome.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Classic Empire took some big hit at the start. Too much to overcome.

I have been informed that Classic Empire had the suspected “adventure” and I am not sure what was the reason. I will watch the replays and see if anything discernible can be found.

However, we made some money despite me advocating to wager on Classic Empire, but when he felled to the fourth choice in the betting, the decision was made to put our “bag of wooden nickels” on Always Dreaming because the “‘gut’ feeling from the group was that Classic Empire was probably not right.

I still believe that Classic Empire wouldn’t have finished worse than second if there weren’t the incidents during the race.

Furthermore, if his connections change Classic Empire’s jockey I believe Classic Empire would win one of the next two TC race or both if he runs.

[cj]

The "we changed our mind" redboard is always the best redboard.

[elhelmete]

"gut feeling"?

[thaskalos]

The man has no shame...

[rsetup]

It's been 'discernible' for quite a while now.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

The "we changed our mind" redboard is always the best redboard.

I have been here 14 years and never brag or redboard. I have nothing to gain.

However, anyone who list him/herself as Black Belt Six Sigma and don't know the difference between combinations and permutations are the quintessential redboarder

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

"gut feeling"?

Yes, when people are wagering on just one race sometimes emotions becomes involved.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by rsetup

It's been 'discernible' for quite a while now.

You are correct, but I only recently read the notes in the DRF charts which explained what happened, but have not reviewed a replay.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Cratos

However, anyone who list him/herself as Black Belt Six Sigma and don't know the difference between combinations and permutations are the quintessential redboarder

Oh yeah, you're going to score big points with posts like these.....But you have nothing to gain, like you said...