Florida Derby

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Always Dreaming has been an absolute tortoise in the early going in his route races, I can't back a horse that went 58-54/112 on the lead at Gulfstream in a race that expects to be much faster throughout.

That said he fits the profile of a Pletcher horse that wins the Florida Derby and is never seen again.

Agree. Those pace lines are treacherous to look at.

Yes, a win is a win, and when needed he kicked and blew them away, but who did he beat? Throw in Pletcher and there is little doubt he'll be overbet. Working like a machine though. Tough play IMO.

By the way, anybody know if Johnny V is on the or the ?

[Mc990]

9 likely to scratch

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Mc990

9 likely to scratch

Makes sense. Thanks.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Always Dreaming has been an absolute tortoise in the early going in his route races, I can't back a horse that went 58-54/112 on the lead at Gulfstream in a race that expects to be much faster throughout.

That said he fits the profile of a Pletcher horse that wins the Florida Derby and is never seen again.

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Agree. Those pace lines are treacherous to look at.

Yes, a win is a win, and when needed he kicked and blew them away, but who did he beat? Throw in Pletcher and there is little doubt he'll be overbet. Working like a machine though. Tough play IMO.

the 4 definitely comes w/ risk w/ a lower reward than you should get.

having 5 unplayable horses in the race won't help w/ odds either. the 1 and 10 will be 3rd/4th in the win betting not that high either.

somebody said that gunn will be 6/5 and always dreams 2/1 which could be pretty spot on...i think gunnavera could even be lower. maybe 3/5 ish.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm trying hard to come up with a way to play the race instead of just watching and the best I can do is Coleman Rocky. Only needs to improve about 40 lengths here, but it does kinda seem like he's a work in progress and maybe starting to put it together. I'd like to believe that this isn't a case of running here because a) there was a gate open and b) it's a Derby prep. It probably is exactly that, but maybe there's a piece of it that has as its catalyst the fact that the horse genuinely is doing better than ever and the time to strike unrealistically is when the iron is melting.

This might be too much of a stretch for even me, but I don't really think he has a bad race on his form. He doesn't have any particularly good ones either, but they're getting better. Or were.

[Irishfever]

They said track was lightning fast early this morning and just set a track record in 1st race. Always Dreaming looks to have a big edge on Gunnevera if this keeps up

[Secondbest]

I like State of Honor. He set the fastest pace at a distance and his losses were to Tapwrite and McCracken .The 4 has run 2 distance races in slow time. If TAP wasn't his trainer not so many people would like him. 9 and 10 are bad posts at the distance since Gulf remodeled in 2006. I think 5 or 6 % winners However I will put the 11 for second with a smaller reverse.Have not checked but guessing Battalion runner will scratch.
Good luck to all

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I'm trying hard to come up with a way to play the race instead of just watching and the best I can do is Coleman Rocky. Only needs to improve about 40 lengths here, but it does kinda seem like he's a work in progress and maybe starting to put it together. I'd like to believe that this isn't a case of running here because a) there was a gate open and b) it's a Derby prep. It probably is exactly that, but maybe there's a piece of it that has as its catalyst the fact that the horse genuinely is doing better than ever and the time to strike unrealistically is when the iron is melting.

This might be too much of a stretch for even me, but I don't really think he has a bad race on his form. He doesn't have any particularly good ones either, but they're getting better. Or were.

+ Big Price, Stamina, Game Last Race, Decent Post Draw, Good Jockey, Relaxes

- Lacks Talent, Lacks Tactical Speed


He may make a lot of Superfecta and Trifecta players pay for leaving him off the bottom of their tickets.
His last race was vs. Off-the-turfers, and he was slightly outrun by Bronson, but Bronson is a good horse, and that race was run (energy-wise) like a turf race on the slop. Lost some ground on the backstretch, which upgrades his effort as well, but he can't make a habit of that. I'm using him underneath, and keying underneath on a small ticket.

Good luck if you play him.

[señorclipclop]

Going with ///

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by Irishfever

They said track was lightning fast early this morning and just set a track record in 1st race. Always Dreaming looks to have a big edge on Gunnevera if this keeps up

Why?

[Burls]

Call me crazy, but the only VALUE I can see in the ML is .
It won't surprise me if the spoils a lot of exotics.
I think I'll try TRIBox and EXBox.

[rastajenk]

Isn't this the track and distance that is certain Doom for outside posts? The looks much the best on paper, but it'd be hard to play it with the confidence it might otherwise deserve. I'd be inclined to use the and in verticals with the other longer-shots in the inside half of the gate.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

#9 Battalion Runner is scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

Trifecta of Opinion
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.50 TR (PWHL) / / 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 $3.50

ALWAYS DREAMING keyed over STATE OF HONOR:
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 /2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 $3.60
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 / / 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 $3.60
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 / 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 / $3.60


AD&SOH keyed with Gunnevera3rd-or-4th
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / / / 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 $1.20
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / / 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 / $1.20
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 / / $1.00
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 / / $1.00

Cold Super:
Gulfstream Park 14 $0.10 SF (PWHL) / / / $0.10

------------------
Wagered: $18.80

[jettroofer]

1 2 8 10 11 EB
1 2 8 10 11 TriB
2W
8W