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Old 04-01-2017, 09:06 PM   #376
Spalding No!
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Your comparing Fords to a Ferrari.
Gonna guess Skip Away and Formal Gold are too far back for you.

Or they don't qualify on pedigree or something...
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:15 PM   #377
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Why in the world would anyone run this horse in a race like the Suburban or the San Diego? He is simply worth too much to risk. I'd love to see him race as much as the next person but you have to be reasonable. Sprints and turf? Come one.
If Santa Anita track management has any sort of clue, they would try and entice Arrogate's connections to the Gold Cup, perhaps by upping the purse to $750K or something. Stronach could send Shaman Ghost back to SA, too. In this day and age, apparently appearance fees are the way to go.

At the very least, Arrogate's entry would save the race's tenuous Grade 1 ranking for another year or so.

Of course, Santa Anita management has shot themselves in the foot with this fantasy, since now the Gold Cup is run over Memorial Day weekend rather than the traditional end of June date when it was run at Hollywood.
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:18 PM   #378
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If Santa Anita track management has any sort of clue, they would try and entice Arrogate's connections to the Gold Cup, perhaps by upping the purse to $750K or something. Stronach could send Shaman Ghost back to SA, too. In this day and age, apparently appearance fees are the way to go.

At the very least, Arrogate's entry would save the race's tenuous Grade 1 ranking for another year or so.

Of course, Santa Anita management has shot themselves in the foot with this fantasy, since now the Gold Cup is run over Memorial Day weekend rather than the traditional end of June date when it was run at Hollywood.
Yeah, at this point you almost have to pay big bucks to get him. The "super" races are making the others pointless. I don't know what the answer is, but he isn't just going to show up for the Foster or something else to be sporting.
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:33 PM   #379
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Gonna guess Skip Away and Formal Gold are too far back for you.

Or they don't qualify on pedigree or something...
That was quite a while back right, 20 years.

Formal Gold made 16 starts, Arrogate will end with 10 or 11.

Am I supposed to be outraged at this?
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:48 PM   #380
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That was quite a while back right, 20 years.

Formal Gold made 16 starts, Arrogate will end with 10 or 11.

Am I supposed to be outraged at this?
You're kidding right? Formal Gold started his career later than Arrogate, broke his leg which kept him from making more starts, ran in both the Big Cap and the Dubai World Cup and started within 7 weeks of the latter, and still made 60% more starts than Arrogate.

There is a clear bias here. But it would have made more sense for you to claim the Dubai shipping stress, or CJ's argument about lack of suitable races, or mentioning that Baffert actually entered Arrogate in the San Pasqual but had to scratch due to weather.

But trying to defend a 4 race schedule as legit on its own merits is a bit preposterous.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:21 PM   #381
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You're kidding right? Formal Gold started his career later than Arrogate, broke his leg which kept him from making more starts, ran in both the Big Cap and the Dubai World Cup and started within 7 weeks of the latter, and still made 60% more starts than Arrogate.

There is a clear bias here. But it would have made more sense for you to claim the Dubai shipping stress, or CJ's argument about lack of suitable races, or mentioning that Baffert actually entered Arrogate in the San Pasqual but had to scratch due to weather.

But trying to defend a 4 race schedule as legit on its own merits is a bit preposterous.
You are very confused about my point, his schedule has no bearing on how I feel he stacks up as a race horse, both this season and historically.

I am saying its not relevant, he is one of the best horses the past 2-3 decades. That is my opinion, running in the San Diego Handicap is not going to alter that.
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Old 04-02-2017, 12:07 AM   #382
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You are very confused about my point, his schedule has no bearing on how I feel he stacks up as a race horse, both this season and historically.

I am saying its not relevant, he is one of the best horses the past 2-3 decades. That is my opinion, running in the San Diego Handicap is not going to alter that.
I must have been confused about the goal posts then, because they seem to have changed. I thought we were discussing the abbreviated campaign he is in the midst of, not his talent level. You defended it by (1) suggesting it fits with other recent campaigns of top horses (what horses those are I am at a loss to find) and (2) some fuzzy reconfiguring of the calendar year to start in June as though Arrogate originates from South America. Personally, I don't buy either.

He has had large amounts of time off between races ever since the Travers. But as you said yourself, he has remained in training throughout, so why doesn't he race? The horse is still pretty much at risk for injury whether he is racing in "prep" races like the Californian or San Diego or bullet breezing in company with Uninvited or Whiskey Ticket.

We saw that clear as a bell with Mastery.
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Old 04-02-2017, 12:28 AM   #383
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They are handling him like a champion boxer. Only going to run for the big money. Like everyone else here, would love to see more of him. Not one race this year has taken anything out of him. I'm sure he would love to race more. The connections, not so much...
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Old 04-02-2017, 02:00 AM   #384
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Why in the world would anyone run this horse in a race like the Suburban or the San Diego? He is simply worth too much to risk. I'd love to see him race as much as the next person but you have to be reasonable. Sprints and turf? Come one.
I mean, how did Swaps and Round Table and Ack Ack and Spectacular Bid ever do it. Heck, even Curlin and California Chrome tried the grass.

The reason to run in lots of races is because they have a sound fast horse
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Old 04-02-2017, 02:05 AM   #385
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You are very confused about my point, his schedule has no bearing on how I feel he stacks up as a race horse, both this season and historically.

I am saying its not relevant, he is one of the best horses the past 2-3 decades. That is my opinion, running in the San Diego Handicap is not going to alter that.
I think you don't underrate the difficulty of putting a career together.

I mean, Bo Jackson is the greatest athlete I ever saw (and I saw a lot of him with the Raiders). But he didn't have a Hall of Fame career.
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Old 04-02-2017, 02:09 AM   #386
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I mean, how did Swaps and Round Table and Ack Ack and Spectacular Bid ever do it. Heck, even Curlin and California Chrome tried the grass.

The reason to run in lots of races is because they have a sound fast horse
Unlike California Chrome, Arrogate will be a wanted stud in the shed in America.

In 4 races, he earned more money than any other horse on the planet. Ever.

He has nothing more to prove. Pure focus now is to defend his BC Crown. Why risk running him when he isn't 100% ready in any race? Even a G1. His legacy as a stud is already secure.
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Old 04-02-2017, 02:18 AM   #387
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I think you don't underrate the difficulty of putting a career together.

I mean, Bo Jackson is the greatest athlete I ever saw (and I saw a lot of him with the Raiders). But he didn't have a Hall of Fame career.
A lot?

He played 38 games in the NFL. Averaged 13.6 carries a game with 515 attempts for less than 2,800 yards in his NFL career.

But yeah, I get your point. In horse racing, a single race can define a career. Likely a horse needs 2 or 3 to set a legacy for himself/herself.

We've seen Arrogate run 4 straight "all time" type races. Name a horse in the last 15 years that has put together 4 better races than Arrogate has in his last 4.
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Old 04-02-2017, 03:13 AM   #388
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I mean, how did Swaps and Round Table and Ack Ack and Spectacular Bid ever do it. Heck, even Curlin and California Chrome tried the grass.

The reason to run in lots of races is because they have a sound fast horse

They're just weren't there super purse races like now. It is a double edged sword. Without them he'd probably be retired by now. With them, there isn't much reason to race in the others.
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Old 04-02-2017, 03:29 AM   #389
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They're just weren't there super purse races like now. It is a double edged sword. Without them he'd probably be retired by now. With them, there isn't much reason to race in the others.
Honestly It's not that bad. It certainly crushes a race like the Oaklawn Handicap. But when you consider that January to March is really a down time in racing and the focus of spring and early summer is three year olds it's actually good for the sport.

Arrogate will resurface in August and race in the Pacific Classic and then onto the Breeders Cup.
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Old 04-02-2017, 09:47 AM   #390
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Unlike California Chrome, Arrogate will be a wanted stud in the shed in America.

In 4 races, he earned more money than any other horse on the planet. Ever.

He has nothing more to prove. Pure focus now is to defend his BC Crown. Why risk running him when he isn't 100% ready in any race? Even a G1. His legacy as a stud is already secure.
Certainly he'll stand at stud and at a valuable initial fee, but a legacy at stud is based on how they perform at stud.

He has one very big drawback as a stud - he's by Unbridled's Song. UBS is pretty unpopular as the sire of a stallion prospect. He is not a sire of sires. Even worse, his offspring are passing on his unsoundness, particularly soft bone.

UBS still has a couple opportunities to show he can sire a decent sire. Will Take Charge is his top current prospect and may be his best because he looks to be much more his mother's son than his dad's. Arrogate will be his last shot, and while he seems to be his father's son and that's been great on the track, that doesn't bode well for him at stud.

His talent will draw a good book of mares initially along with having an owner who can support him, but many breeders will be looking at him with a skeptical eye and make him prove it first. It'd help if he proves soundness on the track but we won't see great longevity from him as surely he'll retire by year's end.
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