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Old 03-29-2017, 10:09 PM   #331
rsetup
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It was a 2000 meter race and he ran 2039 meters. I know there is a system design issue that adds 7 feet extra per two furlongs. Look at any straight segment and you'll see it. So the 39 meters - the 35 feet of error equals about 93 feet.

I never mentioned Delta, you did.
Well, I'd think the Delta is what's relevant here, as it's not about how far Arrogate ran but, rather, how far he ran in relation to the other horses in the race.

And they all ran more than 2000 meters per TRAKUS. 2026m and 2035m for the 2nd and 3rd place horses.

Unless I'm missing something.
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:34 PM   #332
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Well, I'd think the Delta is what's relevant here, as it's not about how far Arrogate ran but, rather, how far he ran in relation to the other horses in the race.

And they all ran more than 2000 meters per TRAKUS. 2026m and 2035m for the 2nd and 3rd place horses.

Unless I'm missing something.
You're trying to be clever and make it seem like I implied more than I did. I simply stated a fact. People can evaluate it however they like.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:05 AM   #333
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Getting a bit hyperbolic here. "Up the track"? Havre de Grace was beaten all of 3 lengths when finishing 4th in the 2011 BC Classic. Fillies and mares have acquitted themselves quite well in the rare instances they attempted the Classic.

Triptych, a stout 4yo filly which pummeled males on a regular basis in Europe, was the first to try in the 1986 BC Classic. She split the field in her first dirt start, finishing 6th with a mild rally from far back.

The lightly raced 3yo filly Jolypha, a 1/2 sister to the great Dancing Brave, came over for the 1992 BC Classic and closed stoutly for 3rd, only beaten by subsequent HOY A.P. Indy and champion older horse Pleasant Tap.

Azeri, like Zenyatta a late bloomer that was coddled for the better part of her career, returned from a tendon injury and brief retirement as a 6yo to tackle males in the 2004 BC Classic. In a tailored merry-go-round, Azeri was unable to deal with either with an unpressured Ghostzapper or Roses In May, but the only other males to get the better of her were 2003 BC Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect and $4 million earner Perfect Drift.

Beholder, who had won the 2015 Pacific Classic by a pole, was set to start in the BC Classic, but was withdrawn due to respiratory problems. Considering the way that merry-go-round affair was conducted, in which Effinex sat second, stayed there, and suddenly became a Grade 1 horse overnight as a result, its not hard to imagine Beholder getting at least 2nd in that race.

2015 BC Turf winner Found, fresh off a victory in the 2016 Arc de Triumphe was pre-entered in the BC Classic, but opted for a repeat try in the Turf.

Given the recent spate of potential female starters this century as compared to the '80s and '90s, I would say it is only a matter of time before another top mare gets it done on a dirt surface.
Ypu are giving mares a lot of credit for not finishing in the money, splitting fields, and losing to habitual losers like Perfect Drift.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:29 AM   #334
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Well, I'd think the Delta is what's relevant here, as it's not about how far Arrogate ran but, rather, how far he ran in relation to the other horses in the race.

And they all ran more than 2000 meters per TRAKUS. 2026m and 2035m for the 2nd and 3rd place horses.

Unless I'm missing something.
If you haven't figured it out yet, you are missing that the delta doesn't help you compare different races on the same card as well as total distance traveled does. In isolation, it doesn't matter which you use for a single race. For a group of races, the total distance traveled for each horse is very useful. The delta doesn't help much. Make sense?
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Old 03-30-2017, 03:00 AM   #335
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Ypu are giving mares a lot of credit for not finishing in the money, splitting fields, and losing to habitual losers like Perfect Drift.
Yeah, I guess there is a stratospheric difference between a 3yo filly at 15-1 running 3rd to A.P. Indy and a 6yo mare as the even money favorite running second to Blame.
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Old 03-30-2017, 04:22 AM   #336
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Yeah, I guess there is a stratospheric difference between a 3yo filly at 15-1 running 3rd to A.P. Indy and a 6yo mare as the even money favorite running second to Blame.
That's a cherry picked example. At any rate, Jolypha was pulled along and well beaten. Zenyatta was far better.
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:49 AM   #337
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Zenyatta became memorable when she was beaten. It was in her loss to Blame that one could truly see her heart, her determination. The same could be said for Rachel, with her win in the Woodward. (Sorta--though I much preferred Rachel's 3 year old year.)

These were, by far, two of the greatest performances of this era. For whatever reason, I'm not sure, but Arrogate hasn't had the impact on me, not at all, that Rachel and Zenyatta had.
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:54 AM   #338
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Zenyatta ran great in defeat. I take no issue with that.

But what I have noticed with most fillies who have beaten colts in dirt routes, they did so without "mixing it up" with the males. They either got loose on the lead or were deep closers. I theorize that going head to head with other males the whole way around, possibly bumping and feeling the physical presence of stronger males, is tougher for the female. It has made me appreciate more the efforts of those who did well while running with a style that "mixed it up" with the males. Zenyatta could've been racing against cheetahs or tractors. She was by herself running until she ran by them in the clear down the lane.
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Old 03-30-2017, 10:38 AM   #339
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Zenyatta ran great in defeat. I take no issue with that.

But what I have noticed with most fillies who have beaten colts in dirt routes, they did so without "mixing it up" with the males. They either got loose on the lead or were deep closers. I theorize that going head to head with other males the whole way around, possibly bumping and feeling the physical presence of stronger males, is tougher for the female. It has made me appreciate more the efforts of those who did well while running with a style that "mixed it up" with the males. Zenyatta could've been racing against cheetahs or tractors. She was by herself running until she ran by them in the clear down the lane.
Genuine Risk was a good example of that. In the Derby she was at the back of the main pack, well outside and made a wide move coming into the stretch. She tried the same thing in the Preakness, but Codex, ridden by the brilliant Angel Cordero, leaned on her coming out of the turn, pushing her out. Codex really won pretty easily after that, but it may have been that she was intimidated and stayed in a following position.

As an aside, I loved Cordero when he was on my horse, hated him when he was on the competition. But you have to give him credit for being smart, fearless and ultra-competitive.
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Old 03-30-2017, 11:12 AM   #340
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That's a cherry picked example. At any rate, Jolypha was pulled along and well beaten. Zenyatta was far better.
The point was that it is easily in the realm of possibility that sometime soon, a filly or mare will step up and win the BC Classic on dirt. Jolypha was a much younger, inexperienced filly from another country and ran a competitive race in the "most important" race of the year (against much better horses than Zenyatta faced). I would go further and suggest that the other 3 horses didn't embarrass themselves either, none of whom were the favorite.

You are trying to impart mythical status to Zenyatta's runner up effort. But it was no great shakes.
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Old 03-30-2017, 12:26 PM   #341
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Zenyatta ran great in defeat. I take no issue with that.

But what I have noticed with most fillies who have beaten colts in dirt routes, they did so without "mixing it up" with the males. They either got loose on the lead or were deep closers. I theorize that going head to head with other males the whole way around, possibly bumping and feeling the physical presence of stronger males, is tougher for the female. It has made me appreciate more the efforts of those who did well while running with a style that "mixed it up" with the males. Zenyatta could've been racing against cheetahs or tractors. She was by herself running until she ran by them in the clear down the lane.
Agree with this. I've never involved myself in the Rachel-Zenyatta debate. Two entirely different styles. All of Rachels races against inferior males was to take it to them right from the get go. She set very fast fractions and everyone who tried her early finished in the back. I believe her style finally wore her down in the long run. She was toasted after the Woodward, physically and mentally never the same.
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Old 03-30-2017, 12:41 PM   #342
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If you haven't figured it out yet, you are missing that the delta doesn't help you compare different races on the same card as well as total distance traveled does. In isolation, it doesn't matter which you use for a single race. For a group of races, the total distance traveled for each horse is very useful. The delta doesn't help much. Make sense?
What you are saying is more relevant to speed figure makers that are trying to make accurate track variants and adjustments to their figures for ground loss.

A comparison handicapper would say:

Arrogate beat Gun Runner by 2 1/4 lengths. He spotted him 2-3 lengths at the start (or whatever your own adjustment might be for the start) and he covered around 46 feet more than him at various points in the race (give or take Trakus error) etc... Then he would try to quantify his overall trip relative to Gun Runner's, given how the track was playing, how the race flowed, etc...

That's very basic. You'd look at the trip in more detail but I don't want to write a book. :-)

You do that down the line for the major horses until you have an overall assessment of the race.

The conclusion would tell you how much better you think Arrogate was than Gun Runner and the others. Then what you think of Gun Runner and the others as horses would tell you how good Arrogate was.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:25 PM   #343
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What you are saying is more relevant to speed figure makers that are trying to make accurate track variants and adjustments to their figures for ground loss.

A comparison handicapper would say:

Arrogate beat Gun Runner by 2 1/4 lengths. He spotted him 2-3 lengths at the start (or whatever your own adjustment might be for the start) and he covered around 46 feet more than him at various points in the race (give or take Trakus error) etc... Then he would try to quantify his overall trip relative to Gun Runner's, given how the track was playing, how the race flowed, etc...

That's very basic. You'd look at the trip in more detail but I don't want to write a book. :-)

You do that down the line for the major horses until you have an overall assessment of the race.

The conclusion would tell you how much better you think Arrogate was than Gun Runner and the others. Then what you think of Gun Runner and the others as horses would tell you how good Arrogate was.
Well no kidding Captain Obvious. I think you said the same thing I did with a lot more words.

What I was talking about doesn't have to involve speed figures. Horses from different races on the same day often race against each other on subsequent days. The Godolphin Mile and World Cup would be a good example, or the Sprint and the Mile. What if a comparative handicapper wants to compare horses from those races? The delta wouldn't help much, but the total ground loss would.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:28 PM   #344
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Zenyatta ran great in defeat. I take no issue with that.

But what I have noticed with most fillies who have beaten colts in dirt routes, they did so without "mixing it up" with the males. They either got loose on the lead or were deep closers. I theorize that going head to head with other males the whole way around, possibly bumping and feeling the physical presence of stronger males, is tougher for the female. It has made me appreciate more the efforts of those who did well while running with a style that "mixed it up" with the males. Zenyatta could've been racing against cheetahs or tractors. She was by herself running until she ran by them in the clear down the lane.

Rags outdueling Curlin in the Belmont was your kind of thing, then.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:30 PM   #345
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The point was that it is easily in the realm of possibility that sometime soon, a filly or mare will step up and win the BC Classic on dirt. Jolypha was a much younger, inexperienced filly from another country and ran a competitive race in the "most important" race of the year (against much better horses than Zenyatta faced). I would go further and suggest that the other 3 horses didn't embarrass themselves either, none of whom were the favorite.

You are trying to impart mythical status to Zenyatta's runner up effort. But it was no great shakes.

Well remember, we only get to this point by pretending her other Classic didn't happen.

But no, it will likely be a long time before another mare wins or finishes second in the BC Classic. Over time, you will be forced to revise your opinion.
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