Horses that improve their Brisnet speed number in their last prep before the Derby by 10 points or more have not won the roses in the last 22 years. That means they went up 10 or more points in their last start from their next to last start.
I wouldn't put Frosted on that list, he was gonna smoke Upstart in the FOY but stopped like he hit a brick wall cause of his breathing, so I'm throwing that race out.......