betting 1/10 to win = longterm profit?

[ribjig]

(first post by forum newbie, take it easy)

Is it correct, despite disbelief by many,
that historic backtesting reveals horses
paying $2.20 to win (is $2.10 possible?),
actually make a small profit, something
like 2-3% in long run?

If true, & from what I've read here, getting
a 6-11% rebate is possible; add to that
betting insane huge sums, but probably
not any more than ?20%? of one's bankroll,
can't knock win odds down any further,
why wouldn't "whales" constantly do this???

The only mistake to avoid would seem to
be absolutely certain a horse is truly 1/10
BEFORE whale bet by waiting until last horse
is in process of being loaded into gate...?

Thanks in advance!
(no, am NOT whale)

[Some_One]

I believe it has the best ROI result, but not close to breakeven, even with rebate. In part this is due to the fav/longshot bias effect where gamblers want the large payoff (look at show pool distribution for a great example of this). Next, even if it did, it probably couldn't sustain long term, also the nature of late money in North American racing means you don't know when you make the decision to bet if that 1/10 horse will go off at 1/10 or if that 2/1 horse will go off at 1/10.

[raybo]

Just how many 1/10 horses are there out there, before you place your wager? I suspect that those 1/10 horses, generally, happen after almost everyone has already placed there wagers. So, I guess, the "whales" are already betting those horses, or making them 1/10 anyway. I don't know any "serious" players that would bet a horse to win if it was 1/10 as the last horse enters the gate.

[ribjig]

American Phaoroh was 1/9 aka 1/10 in AR Derby
throughout at least the final 10 minutes prior to
starting bell according to what I saw via TVG.
Am guessing there's a horse going off at 1/10
couple times month...? There's specific
1/5 + 1/10 data from 1977? to late 80's
in ?BEAT THE RACES?, the book about
mechanical betting techniques that
concentrated on previous early speed as a
successful mechanical betting technique...
Author = ?James Quinn?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by ribjig

American Phaoroh was 1/9 aka 1/10
throughout at least the final 10 minutes
prior to starting bell according to what I
saw via TVG. Am guessing there's a horse
going off at 1/10 couple times month...?
There's specific 1/5 + 1/10 data from 1977? to
late 80's in ?BEAT THE RACES?, the book
about mechanical betting techniques -- the book
that concentrated on previous early speed as a
successful mechanical betting technique...
Author = ?James Quinn?

Dr. Z(iemba) wrote that book I think.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by ribjig

(first post by forum newbie, take it easy)

Is it correct, despite disbelief by many,
that historic backtesting reveals horses
paying $2.20 to win (is $2.10 possible?),
actually make a small profit, something
like 2-3% in long run?

If true, & from what I've read here, getting
a 6-11% rebate is possible; add to that
betting insane huge sums, but probably
not any more than ?20%? of one's bankroll,
can't knock win odds down any further,
why wouldn't "whales" constantly do this???

The only mistake to avoid would seem to
be absolutely certain a horse is truly 1/10
BEFORE whale bet by waiting until last horse
is in process of being loaded into gate...?

Thanks in advance!
(no, am NOT whale)

All of the places I am aware of (including Off-Shore who book their own wagers) have rules stating they will not pay rebates when subject wager is a part of a "minus" pools.

[green80]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Dr. Z(iemba) wrote that book I think.

Wheras Dr Z's methods my have been profitable back in the 80's or early 90's when he wrote his book, today with the ADW's and computer wagering, any edge you may have had with his methods are long gone.

[Redboard]

There was a guy around here called “Superchalk” who used to do this regularly in the Selections forum. It amazed me how he always would win. He would play many tracks and yet some days wouldn’t bet at all explaining that there were no valid plays that day. Don’t know how he determined which 1/10’s were locks and which weren’t. These kind of bets go against the fiber of my being.

[ribjig]

Originally Posted by green80

...today with the ADW's and computer wagering, any edge you may have had with his methods are long gone.

Any documentation for this?
For example, final win-place-show pools of all races
at all major racetracks on a typical Saturday in 2015?
Fewer, probably, none, doubtful...

[fmolf]

favorites could be the best bets out heir with proper handicapping and knowing which ones are good and which ones are bad?....who would not bet a 9/5 favorite that should be 6/5?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by fmolf

favorites could be the best bets out heir with proper handicapping and knowing which ones are good and which ones are bad?....who would not bet a 9/5 favorite that should be 6/5?

Usually this kind of 'overlays' are among the worst bets you can ever make...

[ultracapper]

Yep. An honest, solid favorite should be bet as such. Favorites should either be hammered, or tepid. When you see that slight hedging on a bet down favorite, walk lightly.

[Robert Fischer]

One of the problems is that there is that an 'estimation' that must be done as to whether the horse will in fact be 1/10 final odds (and pay $2.20).

In practice many of these horses end up paying 2.40 or so, often because the public does not want to take 2.20 and then sees the second best horse paying 5-1 or whatever, feeling that it's a better short-term gamble.

-So horses that actually do pay 1/10, are horses that the public (including the masses of gamblers and any large 'whale' players) decided to actually continue to bet heavily.

- that 'estimation' ends up being a type of 'wisdom of crowds' factor when you look at the results after the race. You don't know before the event, and it is a positive factor when looking after the event at the results.

There are also certain show pools where you receive a 1/10 $2.20 minimum payout for a horse merely running 3rd or better. These probably close the gap of estimation error from the win wagers just a bit. [You would have to estimate that a horse was likely to be 1/10 in the Win Pool, and then bet that same expected 1/10win horse only to show.]

In the end there no free rides as far as I know, but if you combine an actual edge in opinion, with the principles that make these kind of phenomena interesting, then you have a chance at profit.