Distribution of "singles" in Pick Fours

[Milkshaker]

Hypothetical question:

Do you think there is an inherent bias in which leg in the Pick Four the betting public "singles" most often?

Meaning--is it your overall impression that the betting public spreads out early and singles late (or vice versa)?

To put it another way: If you had access to the blind, raw data that showed the ticket combinations of every Pick Four wager placed in North America over the past ten years, which leg gets "singled" the most?

[thaskalos]

I have to believe that the pick-4 is played according to how the individual races lay out from a handicapping perspective. I doubt that people decide on whether or not to single a horse base on the order of the races.

If there IS a wagering bias...I would guess that the last race of the pick-4 would be the most unlikely race that most players would choose to single in. I have to think that most players would like additional protection in the last leg...should they be fortunate enough to still be alive after the first three legs.

[Stillriledup]

"Everyone" singles the favorite in the last leg.

The advantage of singling a horse in the last leg is that its the only leg where you get to know your payout....and if you know your payout, you can bet "savers" accordingly. If you're alive for boxcars, you might want to punch a nice exacta with the horse you fear the most, on top of your big payout horse (for example).

[tanner12oz]

I like to play my single leg one since I can actually see the post parade and such...plus it feels good to get it out of the way early...tickets crashing and burning after 30 seconds does suck though

[arno]

In horizontal betting the first leg usually dictates the will pay.
A pick 4 in sequence 6/1,even,even,and even will pay lots more than even,even,even, and 6/1.
Therefore I tend to spread early hoping for the big payoff in the first leg and single in later race.

With many tracks having rolling pick 3s I try to start in chaos race.

[Bettowin]

My 3 singles in pick 3's today all just happened to be in the 2nd legs. Was great to start one with a $66 horse and have Dank with 6 horses in the 3rd leg but it didn't make Dank's race any less stressful. Did hedge 2 horses in the last leg just in case but didn't need it

[Pensacola Pete]

If you mean bettors in general, they usually single the last leg, because they want to stay in action as long as possible.

[1st time lasix]

I believe few casual players will leave the favorite out in the first two legs for fear of being "dead" early. I a world of rolling doubles and pick threes..... If an odds on favorite wins the first leg....what have you gained? If i had a preference for a single...it would be in the last. Numerous times if i have a "seperator" [an entry I think has a strong overlay chance to win that others might miss} I will single it with the obvious chalk in the other legs as an extra ticket.

[CincyHorseplayer]

When I play the pick 4 it will never be when I think most bettors have say a Point Of Entry or Wise Dan etc to all single.I'll avoid that sequence like the plague.My singling strategy is to make 2 tickets singling separate horses in separate races I think will both be outside of the top 3 choices and stretching out in the other 3.Meaning I think I have 2 of the races figured out pretty well and really only have to spread out deeper in the other 2.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

When I play the pick 4 it will never be when I think most bettors have say a Point Of Entry or Wise Dan etc to all single.I'll avoid that sequence like the plague.My singling strategy is to make 2 tickets singling separate horses in separate races I think will both be outside of the top 3 choices and stretching out in the other 3.Meaning I think I have 2 of the races figured out pretty well and really only have to spread out deeper in the other 2.

^
Cincy, That whole paragraph is full of good advice.

I don't play a lot of pick 4s at this point.
When I liked to play with cash-on-hand at the track or OTB, I'd look to string together my opinions to chalk in the last leg. Then, if alive, I had the option of hedging with longer prices that left a good outcome either way. This strategy increases hit%, but isn't something I'd want to do regularly.

I basically agree with the principles that Cincy implies above ^ Value, and Ticket Structure.