the best horse won

[Fager Fan]

Five favs in row won the Derby. The fav has won the Derby every year since they implemented the new points system which took out sprinter speed. The first TC winner after a 4 decade drought came after the new point system. They said during the telecast that if AD won, it'd be the first time in the history of the race 5 favs in row won.

Has CD unwittingly changed the race, with requirements or a system no other race in the world has which targets keeping top speed out of the race, and is it for the better?

[upthecreek]

Did i read the chart right AD paid $4.40 in pool 1 and $7 in pool 2? But you got $11.40 Derby Day? Or am I a knucklehead?

[arw629]

That race was so boring. It felt like I was watching an Aqueduct Inner Route race where there was a gold rail. My first thought after the derby was that the Conquest MO Money team had to be sick they didn't supplement there horse bc with the inside bias I think they would have gotten to the front and never looked back. I hope Conquest MO Money heads to Baltimore ...

[pandy]

I would tend to agree that the best horse won, but, Classic Empire had a rough trip and raced gamely.

[stlseeeek]

best horse?

No, right horse for right surface. And i wouldn't call him anything special, he was literally in a wheel chair crawling home.

And the horses out wide, who made up ground are all possible bet backs. The outside was a swamp, and the inside was golden. It was night and day between them.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by stlseeeek

best horse?

No, right horse for right surface. And i wouldn't call him anything special, he was literally in a wheel chair crawling home.

And the horses out wide, who made up ground are all possible bet backs. The outside was a swamp, and the inside was golden. It was night and day between them.

I felt the same way, horses racing in outside paths seemed to have trouble accelerating all day. If wasn't really a speed favoring track but if a horse could get to the lead along one of the inside paths the horses rallying wide seemed to be at disadvantage down the stretch.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Five favs in row won the Derby. The fav has won the Derby every year since they implemented the new points system which took out sprinter speed. The first TC winner after a 4 decade drought came after the new point system. They said during the telecast that if AD won, it'd be the first time in the history of the race 5 favs in row won.

Has CD unwittingly changed the race, with requirements or a system no other race in the world has which targets keeping top speed out of the race, and is it for the better?

Sample size. It doesn't prove anything more than 5 favorites in a row at the Breeders' Cup or any card full of full fields would.

[classhandicapper]

I have mixed feelings about his performance. The fractions were very fast (as expected) relative to the final time on that slow track, but the race did not totally collapse even though he was right on the pace and they came home slowly.

Either he ran a HUGE race or the slop prevented many of the closers from running their A race. I'd be more apt to think he ran a huge race if a few more horses had at least picked up Battle of Midway who was also in the mix early. But it seems to me that a lot of high quality closers simply did not run their best race in a race that was setup for closers.

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I have mixed feelings about his performance. The fractions were very fast (as expected) relative to the final time on that slow track, but the race did not totally collapse even though he was right on the pace and they came home slowly.

Either he ran a HUGE race or the slop prevented many of the closers from running their A race. I'd be more apt to think he ran a huge race if a few more horses had at least picked up Battle of Midway who was also in the mix early. But it seems to me that a lot of high quality closers simply did not run their best race in a race that was setup for closers.

Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.

The closers were not compromised but the chasers, primarily Practical Joke (and Gormley) were. And significantly, I think. Classic Empires' race was not as good as it looked, as trouble had him in a closing rather than chasing position. Too bad, as I was counting on him to provide some pressure and totally collapse the race.

P.S. Chart the race and read off all the needed info rather than continuing to work too hard.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.

The closers were not compromised but the chasers, primarily Practical Joke (and Gormley) were. And significantly, I think. Classic Empires' race was not as good as it looked, as trouble had him in a closing rather than chasing position. Too bad, as I was counting on him to provide some pressure and totally collapse the race.

P.S. Chart the race and read off all the needed info rather than continuing to work too hard.

I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?

[mountainman]

I touted the winner hard in an interview thurs with our local NBC affiliate. Having believed beforehand that the supposed "parity" in the field was more apparent than real, I thought the winner ran tons the best. The obvious strategy- to send from the gate and avoid traffic in a huge field- resulted in racing inside a hard- sent foe on rapid splits. With the consequent imperative to not get outfooted and hold onto the rail path, most horses (even exceptional ones) probably would have folded. But this bunch could have gone three laps, and nobody was passing the winner.

I'm all in on this horse and predict a sweep. A big key will be the tractability he displayed in his final prep race.

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.

Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by SuperPickle

Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.

A lot of Derby winners win the Preakness. I think this is an inaccurate description of what happened yesterday.

But if you can beat him you will win some money.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?

I think the chart said "dream trip on the rail"

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Did i read the chart right AD paid $4.40 in pool 1 and $7 in pool 2? But you got $11.40 Derby Day? Or am I a knucklehead?

Always Dreaming was in the field for the first two pools, so you not only got him but every other horse that wasn't listed 1 to 23. That's why the field was 6-5 in the first pool and 5-2 in the second pool.