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View Poll Results: Which information is more valuable in handicapping the derby?
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Everything I've learned from the prep season.
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27 |
69.23% |
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The information and buzz the 3 weeks before the derby.
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12 |
30.77% |
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04-29-2017, 12:28 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Sticking To Your Guns?
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo..._Thoughts_123#
The above article I found as a great read and wanted to pass it along. Makes me want to ask the question. How much do you stick to the information youve learned from the first pts race thru the Arkansas Derby and how much you let the chatter change your mind from the Arkansas Derby thru race day?
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04-29-2017, 01:19 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,489
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a lot changes with those horses between the prep races and first saturday. the race is always impossible to handicap and if you do handicap it more than likely you will be on one of the top 4 choices in the betting pools.
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04-29-2017, 01:27 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,053
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You started a thread (tosses), i posted that Hence was a horse i was tossing. After reading some of the opinions on this site, i went back and looked again at this horse. After that i thought i might have to use him in the derby. Then, a couple days later i watched his Sunland Derby and now am back with my original point of view. Good thing there is only a week left before the derby, because i can only change my mind 7 more times.
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04-29-2017, 01:29 PM
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#4
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,112
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I am sticking to my Gunnevera
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-29-2017, 01:34 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,616
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Yep. Even if one of my choices draws the rail or 17 hole.
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04-29-2017, 03:05 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
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* Most WEIGHT ever carried....
* Most DISTANCE ever travelled....
I stick to these same sobering premises with every new iteration of the Derby....
__________________
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"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
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04-29-2017, 09:48 PM
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#7
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Public Handicapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LottaKash
* Most WEIGHT ever carried....
* Most DISTANCE ever travelled....
I stick to these same sobering premises with every new iteration of the Derby....
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This one rings a huge bell for me!
Weight over distance, a classic factor too often under used in modern handicapping. I'm keeping this one near the top of my list LK, thanks. Classic reminder.
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04-30-2017, 01:47 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I am sticking to my Gunnevera
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I am sticking to this and it's 1 race theory. Buildup is great! I have had to timeout myself on this so I am not offering my own psychotic version of Derby fever! Sticking to my guns to POT!
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04-30-2017, 01:50 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
You started a thread (tosses), i posted that Hence was a horse i was tossing. After reading some of the opinions on this site, i went back and looked again at this horse. After that i thought i might have to use him in the derby. Then, a couple days later i watched his Sunland Derby and now am back with my original point of view. Good thing there is only a week left before the derby, because i can only change my mind 7 more times.
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Last line is a classic J!
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04-30-2017, 02:22 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,444
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None of the above! 
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04-30-2017, 02:30 AM
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#11
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
None of the above! |
We know Nitro, we know...you'll be playing Hong Kong 
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-30-2017, 03:23 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
We know Nitro, we know...you'll be playing Hong Kong |
I will be playing HK, but not on SAT afternoon!
So tell us what you'll use to get a winning play in the Derby?
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04-30-2017, 03:28 AM
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#13
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I will be playing HK, but not on SAT afternoon!
So tell us what you'll use to get a winning play in the Derby?
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It was a joke Nitro..easy mon!
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-30-2017, 08:58 AM
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#14
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,067
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Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.
Keep it real. 
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04-30-2017, 04:57 PM
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#15
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,299
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Derby Week chatter is a good example of the things that our brain's Conformation Bias has evolved to protect us from.
In general, we should stick to our guns.
However, nothing beats skilled unbiased, rational application of true insight.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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