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Old 04-10-2017, 07:03 AM   #1
Ray2000
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Monday Funday Longshots

If the Good day/Bad day pattern continues, this should be a "Good day"

Dover R2.........#1 Northern Rocknroll-6/1........Davis, Allan

Meadows R2.......#7 Miss Pinky Pie-8/1............Wilder, Mike
Meadows R3.......#1 Royaltyhasarrived-6/1.......Brown, Brady
Meadows R8.......#1 My Femme Fatale-6/1......Wilder, Mike
Meadows R13......#7 If I Didnt Dream-6/1.......Zendt, Brian

Miami Valley R2..#4 Mattox'S Western-20/1....Sutton, Josh

Northfield R2....#7 Boytown-12/1.....................Smith, Trevor
Northfield R8....#5 Mr De Luca-6/1...................Wrenn, Ronnie Jr
Northfield R11...#9 Finding Terror-6/1...............Stahl, Ryan

Pocono R2........#8 Fresh Squeezed-6/1.............Napolitano, Geo
Pocono R13.......#4 Pointe Of Honour-9/2..........Napolitano, Geo

Pompano R8.......#3 Mckenzie'S Star-7/1...........Paquet, Fern Jr

Plainridge R6....#2 Fancy Footwork-6/1............Merton, Gregory

Woodbine R4......#8 Ocaptain Mycaptain-5/1....Drury, Jonathan L
Woodbine R5......#6 Pick Up The Tab-8/1..........Macdonald, James A
Woodbine R6......#2 Lisvinnie-5/1....................Roy, Louis Philippe

Good Luck All
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Old 04-10-2017, 09:53 AM   #2
sharkey11
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lets hope so ray ray ive got one for your database to look at try horses coming off a bad qualifyer 4th or worse and going off @ 4-1 and up thanks
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Old 04-10-2017, 11:52 AM   #3
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Monday, April 10 Longshots
Betting Win/Place/Show

Monticello
R3 I Deal Vic (8-1) (1:30)

Miami Valley
R5 Pepstepn' Penelope (15-1) (3:35)

The Meadows
R11 Global Appeal (12-1) (4:20)
R12 Bad Glamour Girl (6-1) (4:40)

Western Fair
R4 The Roadies (7-2) (7:15)

Northfield
R8 Mr De Luca (5-1) (8:20)

Woodbine
R5 Rose Run Reanna (9-1) (8:50)

Yonkers
R9 Shortstory Hanover (15-1) (9:50)

Good Luck Ray, hope you change the pattern today.
I truly believe bad luck mode to good luck mode.
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Old 04-10-2017, 12:32 PM   #4
LottaKash
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Throwin my hat in the ring today..

10R - MVR... #10 - GENTLEMAN FRIEND...

A very cheap and paceless bunch in here...

#10 - This 10yr-old is making only his 3rd start off of a layoff since Aug-16. but seems very fit now..
- Has a super good TM-SR in last, and a Pace-pattern to boot to go along with that...
- Good solid try in last..
- Picks up a nice driver change to boot...suggesting more will come today..
- Need only be in position turning the last corner, or, a well timed jump/move should be enough vs. these..
- Price, probably overbet, we'll see..
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Old 04-10-2017, 12:45 PM   #5
Ray2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11 View Post
lets hope so ray ray ive got one for your database to look at try horses coming off a bad qualifyer 4th or worse and going off @ 4-1 and up thanks
sharkey11
Bad Qualifier and going off long? Just checking, maybe you meant < 4/1
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Old 04-10-2017, 03:56 PM   #6
sharkey11
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finshing 4th or worse in qual. and next race after the qual. race with 4-1 or higher odds . thanks

Last edited by sharkey11; 04-10-2017 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 04-10-2017, 06:17 PM   #7
Ray2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11 View Post
finshing 4th or worse in qual. and next race after the qual. race with 4-1 or higher odds . thanks
Removed double, triple qualifiers, base is last 14 months
Code:
		
6311	# of starters finishing >=4 in Qualifier	
5447	# of starters off at >=4 odds next race	
211	Won	3.3%
 $3,436 	Return	
0.63	ROI on betting the 5,447 starters
Did this quick, hope it's correct
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Old 04-10-2017, 06:34 PM   #8
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thank you sir looks good to me .but not the results i was hoping for oh well ill try to find another angle .again many thanks too much chalk in this game i guess

Last edited by sharkey11; 04-10-2017 at 06:36 PM.
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Old 04-10-2017, 07:20 PM   #9
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Slight correction. I had to eliminate some double Qs where the condition was Qua T, QUA 2yr etc that did effect the 1st number (should be 6093) but the other numbers were unaffected as posted above.

Reason for posting is I looked at those same starters for bad Qualifier but bet down equal to or below 4/1 and the numbers are a little better there.

Code:
			
6093	# of starters finishing >=4 in Qualifier		
669	# of starters off at <=4 odds next race		
210	Won	3.4%	
 $590 	Return		
0.88	ROI on betting the 5,447 starters
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Old 04-10-2017, 11:12 PM   #10
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Ray , have been using ur Win &, ROI criteria for Yonkers, & have notice much better results on Saturday cards.During the week, very mediocre performance , however Sat. card has been profitable.Any test u can run , maybe correlating the better horses running truer to the TM numbers & Yr earnings ?Any thoughts on this, would be greatly appreciated.Thanks in advance.
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Old 04-11-2017, 12:54 AM   #11
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Monticello
R3 I Deal Vic (8-1) Scratched/Refund

Miami Valley
R5 Pepstepn' Penelope (15-1)

The Meadows
R11 Global Appeal (12-1)
R12 Bad Glamour Girl (6-1) Place $4.50 $4.10

Western Fair
R4 The Roadies (7-2) Win $7.10 $4.00 $2.60

Northfield
R8 Mr De Luca (5-1) Win $5.40 $3.50 $2.80

Woodbine
R5 Rose Run Reanna (9-1) Place $5.80 $4.70

Yonkers
R9 Shortstory Hanover (15-1) (9:50)
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Old 04-11-2017, 06:04 AM   #12
Ray2000
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Results:

Johnny
Tough to get beat by a 50/1 shot.. but I'm guessing you put the wallet away on that 2/1...

Tyler
I see your point on classier races but hard to quantify with numbers.
btw, the 0.88 roi above was on the 669 starters who met those conditions.

As for me
The way my bets have been going lately, I'm counting this as a good day, 'Pattern' holds!
Did catch a 17$ show bet
Code:
			
Track	Race	Finish	Return (W/P/S)
DD	2	Place	$12.20
MEA	2	Place	$7.00
MEA	3	Win	$19.40
MEA	8		
MEA	13		
MVR	2	Show	$17.60
NFLD	2		
NFLD	8	Win	$11.60
NFLD	11	Show	$4.20
PCD	2		
PCD	13		
PPK	8	Place	$10.00
PRC	6	Show	$2.60
WDB	4		
WDB	5		
WDB	6	Place	$10.40
	
Bet	$96.00	Return	$95.00
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Last edited by Ray2000; 04-11-2017 at 06:13 AM.
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Old 04-11-2017, 10:18 AM   #13
LottaKash
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000 View Post
Johnny
Tough to get beat by a 50/1 shot.. but I'm guessing you put the wallet away on that 2/1...
Yeah, that sucked, losing, haha..

But Ray, you know as well as me that the #10-@MVR is a trailer, and sometimes that is a tricky proposition...Sometimes a ready made "contending positon" will emerge, or a bleak or worse mid-pak start...In this case, a terrible start, and a worse case scenario given the middle fraction..lt was hopeless from thereon, haha..

Still,I have been doing quite well this season with the Trailer @MVR...

And, lately I am taking 7/5 with good results...So, I would always make that play @2/1...But, I was bettin' that he would get away good, haha...
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