Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-29-2017, 05:19 PM   #316
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
Zenyatta raced four seasons, so while she did not have the tough schedules as the horses of yesteryear, she did more than many modern day horses who retired after their three year old seasons, or a horse like Ghostzapper, who only ran 7 races.

I doubt Arrogate will race after this season, but, we have to take what we can get these days.
+1

Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.

Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:23 PM   #317
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
Zenyatta raced four seasons, so while she did not have the tough schedules as the horses of yesteryear, she did more than many modern day horses who retired after their three year old seasons, or a horse like Ghostzapper, who only ran 7 races.

I doubt Arrogate will race after this season, but, we have to take what we can get these days.
Arrogate's last three starts trump any three of Zenyatta's career. Her career may wind up longer, but much of it lacked substance. I can't remember the names of three horses she beat in non-BC races, and doubt many others could either. That isn't her fault, of course. It was the humans. I'm sure the horse wasn't afraid of Rail Trip.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:24 PM   #318
tucker6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 9,959
How Zenyatta ended up in a WOW thread is just wow.
tucker6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:25 PM   #319
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
+1

Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.

Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
I said it was her biggest feat, but that was a weak Classic by any measure.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:34 PM   #320
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Arrogate's last three starts trump any three of Zenyatta's career. Her career may wind up longer, but much of it lacked substance. I can't remember the names of three horses she beat in non-BC races, and doubt many others could either. That isn't her fault, of course. It was the humans. I'm sure the horse wasn't afraid of Rail Trip.
In all fairness, the connections put up all the money for these great horses, and they have the right to manage their careers however they want. I know that, if I were Zenyatta's or Rachel's owner...I wouldn't give a rat's ass for the "fan's" opinion of my horse. I'd do what's best for the horse, and for my pocketbook...and "history" be damned. The sport's "history" will remain checkered no matter WHAT these superstar horses accomplish on the track.
__________________
Live to play another day.

Last edited by thaskalos; 03-29-2017 at 05:38 PM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:38 PM   #321
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
+1

Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.

Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
How long is NEVER?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:46 PM   #322
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
In all fairness, the connections put up all the money for these great horses, and they have the right to manage their careers however they want. I know that, if I were Zenyatta's or Rachel's owner...I wouldn't give a rat's ass for the "fan's" opinion of my horse. I'd do what's best for the horse, and for my pocketbook...and "history" be damned. The sport's "history" will remain checkered no matter WHAT these superstar horses accomplish on the track.
Of course. That said, owners seem to be fair game in any other sport. Horse racing shouldn't be any different.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 05:48 PM   #323
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
How long is NEVER?
Hyperbole much? Beholder could have won the year Bayern did IMO. It can certainly happen again.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 06:51 PM   #324
Fager Fan
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
+1

Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.

Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
In fairness, I don't think 3 lengths qualifies as up the track.
Fager Fan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 07:08 PM   #325
rsetup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,037
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
How much do you think the ground loss cost him? 93 feet is a ton for any race IMO.
Where are you getting 93 feet from? Looking at the TRAKUS chart, and I see
-13 and -4 m (meters, I would think) for the 2nd and 3rd finishers for Cumulative Distance Delta.
rsetup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 07:23 PM   #326
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I said it was her biggest feat, but that was a weak Classic by any measure.
There have clearly been better Classic fields, but on my metrics it wasn't as weak as the Beyer figure suggested. I think Blame was a LOT better than generally given credit for and imo she had a worse trip than him at the start and with kickback.

Still, that Classic field was much better than the typical Grade 1 race for older males. Most of the other great fillies/mares that have tried dirt colts have tried them in weaker Grade 1 male fields, not at 10F on dirt. Those that tried stronger fields at 10F have mostly failed, sometimes badly.

Beholder has been placed in fairly aggressive spots against males also and given a good account of herself.

I agree with you that they should have taken another major stab or two at big races. By far the biggest mistake was not going to Saratoga to face Rachel at 10F. It would have given her another race on dirt before the Classic and IMO she would have had an edge on Rachel at 10f. The way the race setup, she would have won in a jog.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 07:25 PM   #327
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup View Post
Where are you getting 93 feet from? Looking at the TRAKUS chart, and I see
-13 and -4 m (meters, I would think) for the 2nd and 3rd finishers for Cumulative Distance Delta.
It was a 2000 meter race and he ran 2039 meters. I know there is a system design issue that adds 7 feet extra per two furlongs. Look at any straight segment and you'll see it. So the 39 meters - the 35 feet of error equals about 93 feet.

I never mentioned Delta, you did.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 07:43 PM   #328
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I can't imagine how traveling an extra 93 feet in a race can be considered to be anything else but a great disadvantage.
I think it was actually 72 feet further than the horse that saved the most ground and 46 feet further than Gun Runner, but my math may be off a little due to Trakus issues.

To begin with, I didn't say ground loss is not a disadvantage. I said imo it's often not as much of a disadvantage at the literal extra feet traveled.

IMO, the impact of ground loss has a lot of variables, but primarily I think adjusting speed figures for ground loss is faulty because speed figures aren't measuring what a horse has in the tank at the end (along with accuracy issues). What we really want to know is how much extra energy the horse expended because he was wider and see how/where he finished against what quality of horse. I suspect we aren't going to agree on this subject, so I'll move on to other things.

At some tracks on some days (at some tracks fairly often), horses seem to do almost as well running in the outside paths as the inside paths unless they are WAY outside. Whether that's due to less inertia when you run wider, the turn banking being more significant away from the rail, greater comfort being outside horses, or track maintenance that makes the outside paths a little faster than the rail (without the rail actually being dead), is a problem for the physics guys.

I just watch races and describe what I am seeing on the turns and put it into my notes. My notes and bias ratings are often different than conventional wisdom on this subject.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-29-2017 at 07:56 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 08:52 PM   #329
Fager Fan
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
If grown lost was as significant as figure makers assign, then trainers and jockeys would be fighting hard to take the shortest way around. Instead, there are plenty of trainers and jockeys who would rather be outside much of the time.
Fager Fan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2017, 08:57 PM   #330
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
Getting a bit hyperbolic here. "Up the track"? Havre de Grace was beaten all of 3 lengths when finishing 4th in the 2011 BC Classic. Fillies and mares have acquitted themselves quite well in the rare instances they attempted the Classic.

Triptych, a stout 4yo filly which pummeled males on a regular basis in Europe, was the first to try in the 1986 BC Classic. She split the field in her first dirt start, finishing 6th with a mild rally from far back.

The lightly raced 3yo filly Jolypha, a 1/2 sister to the great Dancing Brave, came over for the 1992 BC Classic and closed stoutly for 3rd, only beaten by subsequent HOY A.P. Indy and champion older horse Pleasant Tap.

Azeri, like Zenyatta a late bloomer that was coddled for the better part of her career, returned from a tendon injury and brief retirement as a 6yo to tackle males in the 2004 BC Classic. In a tailored merry-go-round, Azeri was unable to deal with either with an unpressured Ghostzapper or Roses In May, but the only other males to get the better of her were 2003 BC Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect and $4 million earner Perfect Drift.

Beholder, who had won the 2015 Pacific Classic by a pole, was set to start in the BC Classic, but was withdrawn due to respiratory problems. Considering the way that merry-go-round affair was conducted, in which Effinex sat second, stayed there, and suddenly became a Grade 1 horse overnight as a result, its not hard to imagine Beholder getting at least 2nd in that race.

2015 BC Turf winner Found, fresh off a victory in the 2016 Arc de Triumphe was pre-entered in the BC Classic, but opted for a repeat try in the Turf.

Given the recent spate of potential female starters this century as compared to the '80s and '90s, I would say it is only a matter of time before another top mare gets it done on a dirt surface.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.