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Old 06-03-2016, 11:46 PM   #61
EMD4ME
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Originally Posted by AndyC
So the only thing in your way from being a successful bettor is a lack of bankroll? Betting big or betting more combinations won't do squat for your success UNLESS you are betting the right horses. If you possess the skills and know-how of a successful bettor, people would be lining up to pool their money with you.
10000% agree.

I see big bankroll players overspend and either MISS the bet completely (huge loss) or overspend without cause and destroy their ROI on the sequence.

When you're good, you can spread appropriately without overspending.

People do line up to get in on the action OR copy the tickets.
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Old 06-05-2016, 03:33 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
10000% agree.

I see big bankroll players overspend and either MISS the bet completely (huge loss) or overspend without cause and destroy their ROI on the sequence.

When you're good, you can spread appropriately without overspending.

People do line up to get in on the action OR copy the tickets.
Number 1, major, major, challenge for most exotic players. A big reason I don't play many exotics. To this day, I still look at many of my winning exotic tickets, when I do play, and am able to say I could have very easily been able to slim this one down. I very seldom construct an efficient exotic ticket. A big, big challenge for anyone wanting to be successful with exotics, of any kind.
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Old 06-05-2016, 05:07 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by fiznow
For horizontal bets you don't need more or less combinations than for vertical bets imo.
Although I only play vertical bets, I would think you need more bets to cover horizontal exotics due to having more horses to deal with.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:30 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by therussmeister
Although I only play vertical bets, I would think you need more bets to cover horizontal exotics due to having more horses to deal with.
not necessarily...i just started making some p3 bets only when in person at the track...My method is as such....a single in the first race using paddock inspection as well as the traditional handicapping methods...and spreading in the other two legs.I prefer to have at least one turf race in sequence preferably a maiden turf race at belmont.If i have a single or just two horses i like in one of remaining 2 legs, i may use the all button to try and hit the longshot in remaining chaos leg.most profitable scores have been with small tickets.....Anyone interested in this type of wagering should read Steve Crists book on exotic wagering.The exact name escapes me but i took it out of the library years ago.
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Old 07-08-2016, 04:35 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by ultracapper
Number 1, major, major, challenge for most exotic players. A big reason I don't play many exotics. To this day, I still look at many of my winning exotic tickets, when I do play, and am able to say I could have very easily been able to slim this one down. I very seldom construct an efficient exotic ticket. A big, big challenge for anyone wanting to be successful with exotics, of any kind.
I'm fascinated by leaks. Identifying players' leaks is part of how a poker player makes money.

You can't directly make money off others' leaks in horse racing (though sometimes you can indirectly by identifying an overlay), but I still find it a fascinating topic.

And one big leak people have is that they want to cash a ticket. They hate being "right" about something and not cashing a ticket. And that's why they overspread.

It's actually -EV to cover combinations that pay less than their probability of occurring. You don't want to cover them. And it's totally OK to not cash an exotic ticket when the payoff is too small. But horseplayers don't think that way. They want to cash a ticket.
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Old 07-08-2016, 05:30 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by fmolf
not necessarily...i just started making some p3 bets only when in person at the track...My method is as such....a single in the first race using paddock inspection as well as the traditional handicapping methods...and spreading in the other two legs.I prefer to have at least one turf race in sequence preferably a maiden turf race at belmont.If i have a single or just two horses i like in one of remaining 2 legs, i may use the all button to try and hit the longshot in remaining chaos leg.most profitable scores have been with small tickets.....Anyone interested in this type of wagering should read Steve Crists book on exotic wagering.The exact name escapes me but i took it out of the library years ago.
But you see, I don't consider this to be a small ticket, so you just made my point. When I play superfectas 94% of my tickets are eight combos or less.
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Old 07-09-2016, 12:34 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by therussmeister
But you see, I don't consider this to be a small ticket, so you just made my point. When I play superfectas 94% of my tickets are eight combos or less.
And all that while your kid is giving him the "look".
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Old 07-11-2016, 01:37 PM   #68
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I will play a ticket to win or an exacta when I feel compelled based on the value. But..... Over the past decade I have gravitated toward pick 4's...pick 5's and carryover pick 6's. My IRS tax reporting certainly has increased....and here are a few things I have learned....1)be prepared to be frustrated. A steward take down, a lost photo or jockey dumb ride can cost you thousands. 2) seek to play against vulnerable chalk. Perhaps they are on wrong surface or wrong distance. maybe today's pace scenario doesn't fit or the post is a negative. Maybe they are declining in form or are bounce candidates. One or two poor favorites that you have the guts to completely toss out (particularly in first two legs) will give you those overlay returns. 3) spread out far enough in those legs where you have no true handicapping opinion. In other words.... Be prudent-but don't be cheap. 4} the losing streaks can be long and painful at times...have the proper bankroll and train the mindset to play without too much daily scoreboard watching. 5) make multiple tickets...using back ups. Some of my largest hits have come when I only had one or two left in final leg because my top rated contenders lost in a single race but my" back up" kept me alive. 6) hedge at the end using pick 3's and doubles. If you have hit first few legs with "prices"...chances are you no longer have any full coverage with some of your fringe plays. Play them in other pool. Over time with experience you will have a feel for 'will-pays" 7) no substitute for good handicapping. You have to have a strong opinion or two in the sequence for keys.
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Old 07-11-2016, 04:32 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by 1st time lasix
I will play a ticket to win or an exacta when I feel compelled based on the value. But..... Over the past decade I have gravitated toward pick 4's...pick 5's and carryover pick 6's. My IRS tax reporting certainly has increased....and here are a few things I have learned....1)be prepared to be frustrated. A steward take down, a lost photo or jockey dumb ride can cost you thousands. 2) seek to play against vulnerable chalk. Perhaps they are on wrong surface or wrong distance. maybe today's pace scenario doesn't fit or the post is a negative. Maybe they are declining in form or are bounce candidates. One or two poor favorites that you have the guts to completely toss out (particularly in first two legs) will give you those overlay returns. 3) spread out far enough in those legs where you have no true handicapping opinion. In other words.... Be prudent-but don't be cheap. 4} the losing streaks can be long and painful at times...have the proper bankroll and train the mindset to play without too much daily scoreboard watching. 5) make multiple tickets...using back ups. Some of my largest hits have come when I only had one or two left in final leg because my top rated contenders lost in a single race but my" back up" kept me alive. 6) hedge at the end using pick 3's and doubles. If you have hit first few legs with "prices"...chances are you no longer have any full coverage with some of your fringe plays. Play them in other pool. Over time with experience you will have a feel for 'will-pays" 7) no substitute for good handicapping. You have to have a strong opinion or two in the sequence for keys.

I would agree with most everything you wrote above but I find #2 above more applicable to verticals. I may think that an even money horse should be 3-1 but that also means I think the horse still has a 25% chance of winning. I generally don't leave horses off of a ticket that have a 25% chance to win unless I am singling a horse in the same race with a higher chance of winning. I don't let odds sway me until I look at the ticket as a whole.
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Old 07-12-2016, 05:30 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by AndyC
I would agree with most everything you wrote above but I find #2 above more applicable to verticals. I may think that an even money horse should be 3-1 but that also means I think the horse still has a 25% chance of winning. I generally don't leave horses off of a ticket that have a 25% chance to win unless I am singling a horse in the same race with a higher chance of winning. I don't let odds sway me until I look at the ticket as a whole.
Mathematically, you should evaluate whether the combinations that you play involving the vulnerable favorite are going to be overlays.

In other words, a ticket with that even money horse tied in with a lot of logical horses and logical spreads is likely to have a ton of underlays on it, combinations that aren't going to pay what they are really worth.

On the other hand if you have a couple of other races where you have identified vulnerable favorites, combinations involving that even money shot and the various price plays in the other two races are likely to still pay well and be overlays, despite the fact that the even money shot is an underlay.

So from a pure math perspective, you should use that even money shot only on tickets that are going to offer value. Don't waste money on tickets everyone else is playing which aren't going to pay anything.
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Old 07-17-2016, 02:47 PM   #71
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I think the reason you can win in horizontals without having a positive expectation with the individual win bets is because your effective per race takeout percent is lower in the horizontals because the takeout gets spread across races.
Mathematically it does not work that way.

Every bet is a wager on one of many possible outcomes. If 8 horses start then a win bet is a wager on one of 8 possible outcomes. If 8 horses start in each of two races then an exotic bet is a wager on one of 64 possible outcomes. The concept of “per race takeout” is fallacious because mathematically the two races combined still amount to one event. The payout in exotics is bigger simply because there are more possible outcomes and therefore more losers.

The takeout in WPS betting is in the 15-20% range. With exotics it’s always north of 20%. In the long run betting to win will always give a greater ROI than betting exotics simply because the greater takeout reduces the size of the pool relative to the number of possible outcomes.

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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
In vertical exotics what counts the most, is to hit at least one long shot which combined even with a sequence of terrible underlays can be sufficient to elevate your payouts to the extreme.
This does not change the picture.

Trying to hit a longshot out of 64 possible outcomes is no different from trying to hit a longshot out of 8 possible outcomes.

The common practice of making multiple bets in exotics (boxes, wheels, etc.) is no different than betting on more than one horse to win, and again does not change the picture.
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Old 07-17-2016, 04:23 PM   #72
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The takeout in WPS betting is in the 15-20% range. With exotics it’s always north of 20%. In the long run betting to win will always give a greater ROI than betting exotics simply because the greater takeout reduces the size of the pool relative to the number of possible outcomes.
And yet...if the game's professional players were somehow restricted to only making win-wagers...they would all abandon the game.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:13 PM   #73
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And yet...if the game's professional players were somehow restricted to only making win-wagers...they would all abandon the game.
Would they?

I doubt if anyone has ever done a survey on how professional players bet. I also doubt if there really are any "professional" players, i.e., who make a living at it and don't have any other employment. If there are they are few and far between. Ainslie, Quirin, even Andy Beyer all had day jobs.

The public likes exotics (they also love the lottery). The pros who write want to sell books and newspapers, so they write about what the public wants.

It's easy to test. Try betting exotics in 1000 races (on paper of course). Then bet the same amount on your key horse to win. Compare the two ROIs. I've done it. I always make more betting to win.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:47 PM   #74
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Would they?

I doubt if anyone has ever done a survey on how professional players bet. I also doubt if there really are any "professional" players, i.e., who make a living at it and don't have any other employment. If there are they are few and far between. Ainslie, Quirin, even Andy Beyer all had day jobs.

The public likes exotics (they also love the lottery). The pros who write want to sell books and newspapers, so they write about what the public wants.

It's easy to test. Try betting exotics in 1000 races (on paper of course). Then bet the same amount on your key horse to win. Compare the two ROIs. I've done it. I always make more betting to win.
There are valid reasons to like the exotics...and these reasons have nothing to do with the "lottery". Win-betting ties the competent player's hands...while the exotics often give him the flexibility that he needs in a very difficult and complicated game. What does the win-bettor do when he finds a vulnerable favorite, in a race where he cannot spot a "key horse"? Truly vulnerable favorites lead to appetizing rewards...and the player has to capitalize on them in any way that he can. There is also the not infrequent case of the live longshot who figures to have an excellent chance to get "in-the-money"...but has only a scant chance of winning the race outright. The win-bettor fails to capitalize on cases such as these...but the exotics player can often construct a very profitable situation out of them.

Notwithstanding the added takeout...it is quite possible to make more money betting the exotics than it is by betting to win...assuming that the player has the necessary skill needed for the endeavor. The player's SKILL level determines which type bet is more profitable...not the takeout levied upon the particular wager.
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Old 07-17-2016, 06:42 PM   #75
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the multi-race bets allow you to combine more than 1 opinion.

Win bets are 1 opinion.


different situations will result in different answers of which is the optimum bet.


Some rare players may actually find that both wagers at the same time is optimum, whether it is to increase the hit% or to defer price-changing amounts in the pools.
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