It isn't the Big Numbers that make a System

[sunshine]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

It doesn't matter much what you do with past performance data, the long term results are always disappointing. You may have a consistent predictive strike rate but the average pay out is always not enough.

Yep, I would agree with that. You can analyze variables and statistics until you go blue in the face but if you don’t obtain value in the betting odds you will never win. Take 11/10 about either side on the toss of a coin and you will eventually make a profit.

[pandy]

The reason why there are trip handicappers, pace handicappers, trainer handicappers, etc., is that they found that speed handicapping came up with the obvious horses. Of course, there's no value in losers, so even though we like to stress "value," you still have to have an approach that's good at predicting the outcome.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by pandy

The reason why there are trip handicappers, pace handicappers, trainer handicappers, etc., is that they found that speed handicapping came up with the obvious horses. Of course, there's no value in losers, so even though we like to stress "value," you still have to have an approach that's good at predicting the outcome.

Agree. A system should always be how to pick them first and then what are they paying when they win NOT an extrapolated value. Why? Let's say one picks them at 50%. The breakeven point is even money. Many jump to the conclusion that if they get anything over even money they have found value. Wrong! What if when these horses when they win at less than even money? Betting over even money would then be a loss.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Agree. A system should always be how to pick them first and then what are they paying when they win NOT an extrapolated value. Why? Let's say one picks them at 50%. The breakeven point is even money. Many jump to the conclusion that if they get anything over even money they have found value. Wrong! What if when these horses when they win at less than even money? Betting over even money would then be a loss.

You make a good point of why most who search for "value wagers" go astray. It is not that difficult to calculate, especially if one is using a computer app. The (most basic, simplified) question in your example would be, "what is the win rate of this group at LESS than even money, compared to return from that group"? Next, "what is the win rate of this group at MORE than even money, compared to return from that group"?

Not rocket science. Simple arithmetic, calculating multiple ROIs as factors of odds ranges, rather than lumping everything together and making the error you describe above. Simple stuff.

Why doesn't everyone do this already? Same reason they don't use standard deviations to truncate outliers--including anomalies enables them to create the illusion of profitability where it does not exist (except in retrospect in a small sample) and is highly unlikely to exist in the future. Great fuel for the ego (or pocket book if selling the app) as long as one does not bet on it.

There are good reasons why most handicappers spend way more time "studying their output" than betting on races. Reality can be cold and harsh.

[ebcorde]

I agree with what you say. For dirt the computer is vital.
For turf....

I've been betting Australia more than US racing the last few months, almost daily. Now I play US turf same way I do Aussie, forget most of the metrics,
Not sure why maybe since every race is Turf, I gain more experience from handicapping 20-30 turf races every day , but some way, some how you get it.

[sunshine]

I never try to predict winners, just play the odds, Bookmakers don't try to predict losers, they also just play the odds, but if predicting the future works for you then fair enough. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out the facts.

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by sunshine

I never try to predict winners, just play the odds, Bookmakers don't try to predict losers, they also just play the odds, but if predicting the future works for you then fair enough. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out the facts.

yeah makes sense ,except the races that have for example 6 horses between 5-1 and 8-1. I like to get down to a window of 2-4 Horses then regard the longest current odds horse.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by sunshine

I never try to predict winners, just play the odds, Bookmakers don't try to predict losers, they also just play the odds, but if predicting the future works for you then fair enough. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out the facts.

That is all well and good but i believe that knowing when to pass a race is the most valuable skill in handicapping.....The value lies for me in figuring out which 6/5 favorites will lose and which ones will win. You can play the value horse, which is overlayed in every race and still lose! Deciphering which favorites are also overlays despite being odds on, is a skill in itself, as well as having the discipline to pass those races when favorites look legit,and to play your overlay when the favorite looks vulnerable...Everybodies system or method works,its all just a matter of wagering and discipline!

[Pensacola Pete]

A big mistake is in trying to find "the best horse" instead of "value." Most of the time, the "best" horse is a big underlay, while a lesser one offers value.

[Dave Schwartz]

I never try to predict winners, just play the odds, Bookmakers don't try to predict losers, they also just play the odds, but if predicting the future works for you then fair enough. Not trying to start an argument, just pointing out the facts.

What does "play the odds" mean?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by fmolf

That is all well and good but i believe that knowing when to pass a race is the most valuable skill in handicapping.....The value lies for me in figuring out which 6/5 favorites will lose and which ones will win. You can play the value horse, which is overlayed in every race and still lose! Deciphering which favorites are also overlays despite being odds on, is a skill in itself, as well as having the discipline to pass those races when favorites look legit,and to play your overlay when the favorite looks vulnerable...Everybodies system or method works,its all just a matter of wagering and discipline!

I had a losing streak after changing my successful wagering methods. Thought it was my system at first. Found out later, it was my wagering mostly.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I had a losing streak after changing my successful wagering methods. Thought it was my system at first. Found out later, it was my wagering mostly.

similar experience with me..Once i learned discipline and patience in my wagering i began to have more winning days....by this i mean i now go to belmont(my favorite track)and wager on no more than three of the nine races on average.I watch the tote and only play one of my contenders when i feel it is overlayed and the favorite is vulnerable..Making less wagers affords me the chance to wager more on the better opportunities as opposed to stretching my bankroll over more races....

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Tom

I've been playing since 1964...

God, you are old.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by fmolf

similar experience with me..Once i learned discipline and patience in my wagering i began to have more winning days....by this i mean i now go to belmont(my favorite track)and wager on no more than three of the nine races on average.I watch the tote and only play one of my contenders when i feel it is overlayed and the favorite is vulnerable..Making less wagers affords me the chance to wager more on the better opportunities as opposed to stretching my bankroll over more races....

All the software in the world, and there is still no substitute for experience.

[Capper Al]

Let me try to restate why it is the application of the minor numbers that's most important. All the speed or class figures come from the same source, Equibase. These major factors (speed, class, or pace) are manipulated a bit differently by each vendor, but over the long run perform more similarly than different. The minor numbers allow one to separate or eliminate a horse before applying the all so similar major factors.