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06-24-2015, 05:20 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Since Speed is the Long Pole in the Tent
Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners. Maybe it is top speed that should be eliminated rather than false favorites? Top speed and favorites should correlate well to each other. But if you believe in handicapping before you get to the races then you're guessing at the favorite but you know what the top speed is. For me, this would be backwards. I follow the classic order of form, class, speed, and pace. But it does make sense to start with the best factor(speed) and try to improve upon that.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
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06-24-2015, 05:47 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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What do you mean by "speed"? EARLY speed?
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06-24-2015, 06:12 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners. Maybe it is top speed that should be eliminated rather than false favorites? Top speed and favorites should correlate well to each other. But if you believe in handicapping before you get to the races then you're guessing at the favorite but you know what the top speed is. For me, this would be backwards. I follow the classic order of form, class, speed, and pace. But it does make sense to start with the best factor(speed) and try to improve upon that.
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I disagree. Pace is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.
How do you get form without first considering class, speed, and pace?
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-24-2015 at 06:15 PM.
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06-24-2015, 06:39 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.
Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!
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06-24-2015, 06:52 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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If it's true then I interpret that saying as a reference to pace not class or speed.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-24-2015 at 06:54 PM.
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06-24-2015, 07:07 PM
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#6
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.
Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!
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The proble with class and pace are that they are subjective while "speed" might be more objective
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
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06-24-2015, 07:36 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Fresno
Posts: 17
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Here you go
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.
Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!
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Damon Runyon (1884 – 1946) Guys and Dolls
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06-24-2015, 07:40 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I disagree. Pace is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.
How do you get form without first considering class, speed, and pace?
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I agree with you because "pace" is the rate of motion which determines speed and can be objectively and quantitatively measured.
Simply stated, speed is a function of pace.
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Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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06-24-2015, 07:43 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.
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For a few races. And you can build a profitable method for a few races. But it's as equally true that an early pace # could be central to making a ton of money on a few races. It's also as equally true to say on a few races a closing # will make you money. It's important not to generalize on a card, and be specific as to the surface and the distance.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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06-25-2015, 08:48 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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By speed, I mean final speed like Beyer speed.
Those claiming other factors are more predictive better double their figures or enlightened us. Pace or class can have their spots, but I'm not talking about spots here. We are looking at all races.
The question asked another way is since speed is the best factor there isn't a better figure to start with and this should be the factor to modify. Any other factor starts one off with a lower hit rate. Why use any other factor? And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-25-2015, 09:09 AM
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#11
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
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You assume you know what we are doing.
Denial my butt.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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06-25-2015, 09:48 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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The one in denial is YOU...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.
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When you make comments like these, you betray your complete and total ignorance of what competent pace handicapping is all about. You don't add up the pace fragments to total up the final speed figure when you pace-handicap...that's just in your mind. In fact, pace handicapping was born because the highest speed figure horse so often disappointed at times when his "speed figure" towered over the speed figures of his competition.
Listening to your ramblings, one would get the impression that the "speed" handicappers and the "pace" handicappers all end up betting on the same horses...and that assumption couldn't be further from the truth.
IMO....you'd be a lot better off if you stuck to your "angles", Al. Figure handicapping doesn't appear to be your strong-suit.
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Live to play another day.
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06-25-2015, 09:53 AM
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#13
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Screw PC
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.
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Do you use pace? Your statements appear to me some one told you about pace and you don't use it yourself.
Pace is not just adding up 3 numbers to get a single number then seeing which horse has the bigger value. That's treating pace as if it is just a variation on a speed figure.
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Truth sounds like hate to those who hate truth.
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06-25-2015, 11:20 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
You assume you know what we are doing.
Denial my butt.
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So you are saying that you have a better factor, or you know better? That's what your butt should answer if this is what you have.
My research and that of many others have shown speed to be the single best factor.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-25-2015, 11:31 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJofSD
Do you use pace? Your statements appear to me some one told you about pace and you don't use it yourself.
Pace is not just adding up 3 numbers to get a single number then seeing which horse has the bigger value. That's treating pace as if it is just a variation on a speed figure.
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I currently have my pace module in my code disconnected for the rewrite, but am looking forward to revising it and still use much of what Giles has thought me. And I agree that the best use of pace is figuring if the horse can run his race. But I'm not talking about analysis here as the starting point. The discussion for pace would be on a single pace figure like Equibase offers to compare against speed. Speed should out do most comprehensive figures here.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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