Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-03-2020, 01:01 PM   #196
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 3,676
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
This is actually a very good idea in that not only would it eliminate the problem of late odds changes from computer teams, it would also create an incentive for people to actually attend the races to gain the late betting advantage. My idea was always to give an extra on track rebate (sort the way Oaklawn does with the show bet prices). But this sounds like a better idea. Of course, making the game fairer and giving people an incentive to go to the track may not be in the best interests of the track if it cuts down on computer team handle and forces them to hire more on track employees. Someone would have to crunch those numbers.
Do you make large bets on horses 5 minutes to post or due you wait to see that the horse looks and acts OK right at post time?
__________________
Life is short. Make sure you spend as much time as possible on the internet arguing with strangers about politics.
AndyC is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:02 PM   #197
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,083
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
Why make the bettors jump through hoops to get the info? Wouldn't it be much easier just to show the allocation of all DD bets in equivalent win odds? So if $200,000 is bet on the DD and horse 1 in the 2nd leg has $56,000 of the money bet on it then the equivalent win odds (using a 16% takeout) would be 2-1. Total pool allocation would seem to be a better indicator than a partial pool represented by willpays. this can be done with any horizontal bet putting daylight on the blind pools.
Don't exaggerate, Andy, as getting willpays and deciphering odds is hardly "jumping through hoops."

Once again, as we have discussed this before, I agree we should at least tell people horses implied odds based on willpays. However, that doesn't mean people can't do it themselves. Let's be honest....we all do, and have done, far more complicated things.

Despite a prevailing opinion on here, I don't run NYRA. I don't work in technology there either. I can only occasionally offer opinions. Keeping those to a minimum is the best way in life to be effective.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:08 PM   #198
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 3,676
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Don't exaggerate, Andy, as getting willpays and deciphering odds is hardly "jumping through hoops."

Once again, as we have discussed this before, I agree we should at least tell people horses implied odds based on willpays. However, that doesn't mean people can't do it themselves. Let's be honest....we all do, and have done, far more complicated things.

Despite a prevailing opinion on here, I don't run NYRA. I don't work in technology there either. I can only occasionally offer opinions. Keeping those to a minimum is the best way in life to be effective.
The biggest bitch from horseplayers is the change of odds. Yes people should be able to crunch the numbers but my point is that they shouldn't have to. It wouldn't cost the tracks much to provide the info and it would alleviate a major problem. Perception of impropriety doesn't help a floundering sport.
__________________
Life is short. Make sure you spend as much time as possible on the internet arguing with strangers about politics.
AndyC is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:10 PM   #199
PressThePace
Registered User
 
PressThePace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Except, once again, all you had to do was look at the double willpays to know that 10:1 was the highest you were ever getting on that horse and that 8:1 was probably the likeliest landing spot.

The information is pretty much all there. You just have to take advantage of it.
I can't argue this point at all. I didn't look at the exacta will pays. The simple truth is this game is incredibly tough as it is. I play every North American track. I'm constantly switching from one feed to the next. In some instances, I simply don't have enough time to scan the exacta payoffs. I realize that what you say is the reality I face. But, ultimately, I still think the advantages that some have are hurting the game in the long run.

I might add that I have a real job. I rely heavily on conditional wagering. What once was an occasional problem has turned into a regular occurrence.

Last edited by PressThePace; 08-03-2020 at 01:14 PM.
PressThePace is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:16 PM   #200
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,083
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
The biggest bitch from horseplayers is the change of odds. Yes people should be able to crunch the numbers but my point is that they shouldn't have to. It wouldn't cost the tracks much to provide the info and it would alleviate a major problem. Perception of impropriety doesn't help a floundering sport.
I'm not sure what the "biggest bitch from horseplayers" is as I see so much wacky stuff on the internet that I wouldn't want to narrow it down to one. One very real problem is it can be hard to separate the real issues from the noise. That doesn't actually diminish something that may be a real issue, but it sure clouds it for people in the industry that want to help, as ( unfortunately ) the noise overwhelms the intelligent conversations.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:19 PM   #201
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,083
Quote:
Originally Posted by PressThePace View Post
I can't argue this point at all. I didn't look at the exacta will pays. The simple truth is this game is incredibly tough as it is. I play every North American track. I'm constantly switching from one feed to the next. In some instances, I simply don't have enough time to scan the exacta payoffs. I realize that what you say is the reality I face. But, ultimately, I still think the advantages that some have are hurting the game in the long run.

I might add that I have a real job. I rely heavily on conditional wagering. What once was an occasional problem has turned into a regular occurrence.

What advantage are we sure they have other than being more sophisticated than most of us? Not trying to be a wise guy but I don't have any proof of any bigger advantage. I sure don't have an interest in what people on Twitter hypothesize, as I have seen other claims by these same people about issues I actually know about, and their accuracy level is extremely low.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:29 PM   #202
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
Do you make large bets on horses 5 minutes to post or due you wait to see that the horse looks and acts OK right at post time?
I don't bring enough to the table in terms of seeing the horses to consider it very useful for me personally.

If I'm at the track I go to the paddock, take a look, and then sometimes watch the warmups. At most I might add a horse to a ticket or put a little extra/less if I know the horse well and he looks way better or worse than I remember. That's super rare.

I have never made a huge altercation based on physical appearance.

I have never ever changed a bet at all based on what I saw on TV or on the live feed for a few seconds.

I have to admit I appreciate the work Maggie, Acacia, and Richie do on TV in that area, just not enough to alter bets because I've never tested their opinions.

These days when I'm at home I usually bet fairly early because I already know the reason I'm making the play is unlikely to be the consensus opinion and I'm going to get an OK price. If the horse happens to be in the 3-1 or 5/2 range I'll take a quick look at the Will Pays just to make sure I'm not going to get 8/5 or something I don't want.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-03-2020 at 01:35 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:35 PM   #203
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 20,815
all you guys do is complain about the CRW, i love them.

here's a good example, go to the pick 3 at Saratoga yesterday in race 4-5-6. the winning prices were $5.30, $12.60, $5.80..


the pick 3 pays $216.50. notice the amount bet into the pick 3 pool in that race. the only race with a larger pick 3 pool was the one that had the stake race involved where betting is always larger. that added money was brought to you by the CRW, it happens everytime in those pools when there are races in the sequence that involve first time starters when you place larger bets at the right time.

you aren't going to beat the CRW on races that have form to them, but when you are coming at them on maiden races with first time starters, you can get the edge on them.
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:45 PM   #204
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,586
I know this is going to sound a bit harsh, but there are some people that can't do the Will Pay math in their heads even if you teach them they can figure out out the "approximate" odds that way. They may not be big bettors, but they get just as pissed off when the odds change late. And of course, not everyone is playing a major track where the pools are large and efficient enough to be used like that.

Try betting mule races at Fresno, Sacramento, Pleasanton, Ferndale, and Santa Rosa or a mule/quarter horse double like me during the CA Fairs I love.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 01:47 PM   #205
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,809
DD and exacta pools aren't always predictive of final win-odds at Mnr. But, then again, my way of consulting them isn't very sophisticated.

I wish a Dave S. or a Jeff P. would post the quickest fairly accurate way to guesstimate final win odds based on exacta or DD pools.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 02:10 PM   #206
PressThePace
Registered User
 
PressThePace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
What advantage are we sure they have other than being more sophisticated than most of us? Not trying to be a wise guy but I don't have any proof of any bigger advantage. I sure don't have an interest in what people on Twitter hypothesize, as I have seen other claims by these same people about issues I actually know about, and their accuracy level is extremely low.
Andy, that is a very fair question. Especially when you consider I don't have a precise answer. I do know one thing, though. The people responsible for that kind of action, on a consistent basis, are not your run-of-the-mill players. They are getting inordinate bets down, under the gun, consistently. Maybe it's just that I don't understand something? But, from where I stand, something just doesn't feel right. I mean, simulcasting has been going on for a long time. Wagering from home has been going on for quite a while. I just don't ever remember odds dropping at this rate. I understand your stance. You need proof. I have none.

Last edited by PressThePace; 08-03-2020 at 02:12 PM. Reason: correcting
PressThePace is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 02:20 PM   #207
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,765
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
What advantage are we sure they have other than being more sophisticated than most of us? Not trying to be a wise guy but I don't have any proof of any bigger advantage. I sure don't have an interest in what people on Twitter hypothesize, as I have seen other claims by these same people about issues I actually know about, and their accuracy level is extremely low.
Imo, "proof of bigger advantage" can be ascertained by analyzing the settlement money between track and bet taker. (And I realize that's probably not part of your job description. )

If the collective handle of players betting through an individual outlet is sophisticated enough:

When settlement date arrives, I'm guessing most of the time it's close to a wash. And sometimes the track ends up having to disburse money to the bet taker.

If the collective handle of players betting through an individual outlet isn't sophisticated:

When settlement date arrives, I'm guessing the track (almost always) receives a disbursement from the bet taker.

I'm guessing the settlement money of (say) TVG or Twinspires looks very different from that of (say) Elite.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 08-03-2020 at 02:28 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 02:59 PM   #208
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,083
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Imo, "proof of bigger advantage" can be ascertained by analyzing the settlement money between track and bet taker. (And I realize that's probably not part of your job description. )

If the collective handle of players betting through an individual outlet is sophisticated enough:

When settlement date arrives, I'm guessing most of the time it's close to a wash. And sometimes the track ends up having to disburse money to the bet taker.

If the collective handle of players betting through an individual outlet isn't sophisticated:

When settlement date arrives, I'm guessing the track (almost always) receives a disbursement from the bet taker.

I'm guessing the settlement money of (say) TVG or Twinspires looks very different from that of (say) Elite.


-jp

.
I highly doubt this is relevant to the conversation but maybe I am the confused one. Because someone is winning doesn't necessarily mean they have an unfair advantage.

However, you are correct about one thing, I am not involved in settlements.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 03:04 PM   #209
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,083
Quote:
Originally Posted by PressThePace View Post
Andy, that is a very fair question. Especially when you consider I don't have a precise answer. I do know one thing, though. The people responsible for that kind of action, on a consistent basis, are not your run-of-the-mill players. They are getting inordinate bets down, under the gun, consistently. Maybe it's just that I don't understand something? But, from where I stand, something just doesn't feel right. I mean, simulcasting has been going on for a long time. Wagering from home has been going on for quite a while. I just don't ever remember odds dropping at this rate. I understand your stance. You need proof. I have none.
It's hard for me to know if odds are changing considerably more than they did a few years ago, as I am so close to it that timing of change is sort of hard to decipher. Imagine a parent who may not specifically see a dramatic change that a relative will notice in a child that they haven't seen for a year or more. The parent sees the child every day, so notices minutia but not the grand change over a longer time period.

Batch betting has been going on for a long time. My understanding is that any of us could theoretically do it, and I am confident some here do, so I don't think that in any way implies chicanery.

No doubt the game is getting tougher. The CAW players are surely part of this. However, they are only part. The easy access to information that once was very arduous to uncover is another big part. Also, sophisticated players have perhaps shared concepts that once were not part of the mainstream. There are many factors involved ( not to discount CAW play ).
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-03-2020, 03:24 PM   #210
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,765
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
I highly doubt this is relevant to the conversation but maybe I am the confused one. Because someone is winning doesn't necessarily mean they have an unfair advantage.

However, you are correct about one thing, I am not involved in settlements.
I never said (or meant to say) the advantage is unfair.

You mentioned you didn't have poof of any bigger advantage.

All I did was post a way that track management (and regulators) have used in the past to ascertain the sophistication of money bet at various outlets. (That's all.)


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 08-03-2020 at 03:27 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.