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Old 08-02-2020, 05:14 PM   #181
GMB@BP
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Surely you have many horse betting friends who share your viewpoint. Start a partnership and pool your money. You just have to start big enough to get your max rebates.
most of my former horse race friends are no longer in the game, not sure why.
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Old 08-02-2020, 06:24 PM   #182
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As I see the game these days, for the most part, with a few rare exceptions, contenders are almost over bet.
I find live longshots on occasion, but they are usually horses I think are good enough to hit the board or be part of the exacta and not horses I think are very likely to win. So I usually key them in my verticals for value and have a small amount on top for those rarer occasions when several of the contenders get a rough trip or don't fire their "A" race and the bomb wins. I'm not sure if I'm maximizing the value that way, but if I can get a 20-1 shot into the belly of the exacta I'm happy. Keying them on top gets a bit frustrating when they rally for 2nd or 3rd and you have nothing or only a saver.
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:35 PM   #183
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i love the CRW. they are the best thing to ever hit pari-mutuel betting. all you have to do is figure out how to beat them at their own game. its really just a question of how much you want to pick up.

Earlier int his thread you said you were winning in the last couple of months for the first time in years. Have you just decided you don't want to pick up any of there money?
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:28 PM   #184
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Gates open, I think I'm getting 18/1 on the in Dmr 4th today only to see 8/1 as she hits the line in front. Still a nice score, but very tough to get excited with that kind of a drop in price.
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Old 08-02-2020, 09:53 PM   #185
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Gates open, I think I'm getting 18/1 on the in Dmr 4th today only to see 8/1 as she hits the line in front. Still a nice score, but very tough to get excited with that kind of a drop in price.
I watched that on tvg. 2 seconds before the break on tvg it dropped from 18-1 to 14-1. 10 seconds later it was 8-1 on the tvg.
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:05 AM   #186
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I watched that on tvg. 2 seconds before the break on tvg it dropped from 18-1 to 14-1. 10 seconds later it was 8-1 on the tvg.
The only way to stop this shit is too stop ALL simulcast money 5 mins before post......Just let local money in till they are off..
But like all corporations....GREED controls!!!
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:16 AM   #187
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Gates open, I think I'm getting 18/1 on the in Dmr 4th today only to see 8/1 as she hits the line in front. Still a nice score, but very tough to get excited with that kind of a drop in price.
Except, once again, all you had to do was look at the double willpays to know that 10:1 was the highest you were ever getting on that horse and that 8:1 was probably the likeliest landing spot.

The information is pretty much all there. You just have to take advantage of it.
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Old 08-03-2020, 11:29 AM   #188
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Except, once again, all you had to do was look at the double willpays to know that 10:1 was the highest you were ever getting on that horse and that 8:1 was probably the likeliest landing spot.

The information is pretty much all there. You just have to take advantage of it.
When PTP made his post I went into my xpressbet account to see what the other pools showed. In the double from the 3rd to the 4th I calculated quickly in my head around 13-1 or so on this horse, not 8-1. Even the winning double from the 3rd to the 4th (a 13.20 winner to the 8-1 payed 151 and not the parlay amount of 121) In the exacta pool on top and in the double going from the 4th to the 5th using the closing pool he was about a matching 8-1 in both, but I have no idea what the pools were showing a minute earlier. I assumed they were both hammered late like the win pool, but I take it you are saying otherwise.

By the way has the racing industry done anything or considered doing anything to make these equivalent odds easily viewable for everyone? A simple odds equivalent next to(or above) each runner on the exacta and double probables would do the trick. Might help people not get so outraged when their horse drops from 3-1 to 7/5 after the bell.
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Old 08-03-2020, 11:42 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
When PTP made his post I went into my xpressbet account to see what the other pools showed. In the double from the 3rd to the 4th I calculated quickly in my head around 13-1 or so on this horse, not 8-1. Even the winning double from the 3rd to the 4th (a 13.20 winner to the 8-1 payed 151 and not the parlay amount of 121) In the exacta pool on top and in the double going from the 4th to the 5th using the closing pool he was about a matching 8-1 in both, but I have no idea what the pools were showing a minute earlier. I assumed they were both hammered late like the win pool, but I take it you are saying otherwise.

By the way has the racing industry done anything or considered doing anything to make these equivalent odds easily viewable for everyone? A simple odds equivalent next to(or above) each runner on the exacta and double probables would do the trick. Might help people not get so outraged when their horse drops from 3-1 to 7/5 after the bell.
DRF has done it with the Projected Odds tool in Formulator. It isn't perfect, as nothing will be for this, but it is certainly better than what you see on the tote.

I certainly don't think Andy was saying to use the exacta pool or the double pool into the next race. Why would he, they are usually going to mimic the win pool as you say. They don't provide "tells" of what is to come.

I use the Projected Odds tool and if I don't have Formulator open at the time I use the double will pays as a rough guide. Betting is tough enough it is probably something we shouldn't have to worry about, but we can either adapt or we can complain and take the short end of the stick. Since I don't want to leave money on the table I adapted. That doesn't mean I don't think the current model sucks big time but I can't do anything about that.

Last edited by cj; 08-03-2020 at 11:47 AM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:15 PM   #190
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The only way to stop this shit is too stop ALL simulcast money 5 mins before post......Just let local money in till they are off..
This is actually a very good idea in that not only would it eliminate the problem of late odds changes from computer teams, it would also create an incentive for people to actually attend the races to gain the late betting advantage. My idea was always to give an extra on track rebate (sort the way Oaklawn does with the show bet prices). But this sounds like a better idea. Of course, making the game fairer and giving people an incentive to go to the track may not be in the best interests of the track if it cuts down on computer team handle and forces them to hire more on track employees. Someone would have to crunch those numbers.
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:50 PM   #191
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This is actually a very good idea in that not only would it eliminate the problem of late odds changes from computer teams, it would also create an incentive for people to actually attend the races to gain the late betting advantage. My idea was always to give an extra on track rebate (sort the way Oaklawn does with the show bet prices). But this sounds like a better idea. Of course, making the game fairer and giving people an incentive to go to the track may not be in the best interests of the track if it cuts down on computer team handle and forces them to hire more on track employees. Someone would have to crunch those numbers.
There is no way those numbers are going to crunch into this being a good idea for tracks IMO.
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:55 PM   #192
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Except, once again, all you had to do was look at the double willpays to know that 10:1 was the highest you were ever getting on that horse and that 8:1 was probably the likeliest landing spot.

The information is pretty much all there. You just have to take advantage of it.
Why make the bettors jump through hoops to get the info? Wouldn't it be much easier just to show the allocation of all DD bets in equivalent win odds? So if $200,000 is bet on the DD and horse 1 in the 2nd leg has $56,000 of the money bet on it then the equivalent win odds (using a 16% takeout) would be 2-1. Total pool allocation would seem to be a better indicator than a partial pool represented by willpays. this can be done with any horizontal bet putting daylight on the blind pools.
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:55 PM   #193
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The problem isn't rebates the common player doesn't get. It's brutally efficient tote corrections that few weekenders are smart enough to see coming.

Couple that with dramatic odds-shifts posted during the race, and the average player is betting blind.

These people aren't infallible, god-like geniuses-they simply have a great advantage. I would liken it to an exchange in The Mothman Prophecies when somebody wise seeks to demystify the titular monster by pointing to a tall building and explaining that " If you were up there, you would see more than you can down here, but that wouldn't make you all-knowing, or even any smarter than I am."

Last edited by mountainman; 08-03-2020 at 12:57 PM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:55 PM   #194
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There is no way those numbers are going to crunch into this being a good idea for tracks IMO.
Of course not....


GREED!!!!
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Old 08-03-2020, 12:58 PM   #195
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DRF has done it with the Projected Odds tool in Formulator. It isn't perfect, as nothing will be for this, but it is certainly better than what you see on the tote.

I certainly don't think Andy was saying to use the exacta pool or the double pool into the next race. Why would he, they are usually going to mimic the win pool as you say. They don't provide "tells" of what is to come.
The horse's expected odds strictly based on the double willpay was roughly 10.5:1. Given the dispersal of takeout in the double vs win betting, 9:1 was probably the most anyone could reasonably expect from the horse's final odds. The point wasn't that one could predict that horse's, or any horse's, exact final odds. The point is that by using willpays, anyone can fairly easily come up with reasonably likely final odds, and thus not bet 8:5 shots ( or whatever ) just because their odds with a minute or two to post are 5:1.

This is a complicated game. That's likely what has attracted the vast majority of us to it. Pretty much everyone here is always looking for any edge we can get. I simply do not understand the never ending threads around here whining about late odds changes when there is a very simple way ( at least at the more major tracks....like Del Mar ) to guessing likely final odds. We spend hours handicapping but can't spend seconds deciphering this? Seriously?

The discussion of the meat that the CAW players have gnawed off the bone is a very good one. Rebates are what has obviously created this. However, I hear a lot of people who survive on rebates complaining about the CAW players. That seems like a slippery slope. But, I digress. Start looking at willpays and stop pulling your hair out pretending there was no way you could have known your 18:1 shot was actually going to close at 8:1. Surely there are better ways to spend that time ( like posting on the internet ).
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