can anyone beat the public_____?

[Half Smoke]

____________


I'm not referring to winning or making money - obviously there are some that can do that - probably most often with the exotics

I'm referring to one specific thing

it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time

do you think you could do that if you were asked to do it if you weren't able to see the actual odds and weren't even able to see the M/L odds__________?

and do you think anybody could do it______?

I tend to think that maybe nobody could do it



.

[sharkey11]

fav win rate in todays world is a bit higher than the 33% more like 40 to 45% and ive read that in the old world that it was impossible to beat that. authors of such studys have since past away .

[davew]

some people can selectively beat that, it is the 'every race in every track condition' that adds difficulty.

[Dave Schwartz]

it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time

38-39% now.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by davew

some people can selectively beat that, it is the 'every race in every track condition' that adds difficulty.

I agree. When you have to do 3 yo filly maiden claiming turf routes and G1 stakes and NW2Y and 5000 claimers, etc., it gets difficult to keep a high percentage. But a selective person can hit pretty high.

[cj]

And it really isn't "the public" any longer.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by cj

And it really isn't "the public" any longer.

Absolutely right.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

____________


I'm not referring to winning or making money - obviously there are some that can do that - probably most often with the exotics

I'm referring to one specific thing

it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time

do you think you could do that if you were asked to do it if you weren't able to see the actual odds and weren't even able to see the M/L odds__________?

and do you think anybody could do it______?

I tend to think that maybe nobody could do it



.

nope. Probably not.

It's not fair to disallow the program or player from seeing the tote/betting market.

However, a good program or player that took up your challenge would otherwise simply mimick the actual favorite in all but a few spot-play races.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by cj

And it really isn't "the public" any longer.

Damn good point

[MJC922]

IMO unlikely if not impossible over a large sample. There will be enough times the selection isn't quite ready for a winning effort which sometimes will be reflected in the odds.

I suspect those types of scenarios will pretty much 'cap' the selectors win rate several points below the race favorite. Even if you could out-select the general public as a group it won't be often enough to offset that subset of 'dead' picks IMO.

[MJC922]

To clarify I'm assuming you mean by making a selection in every race. I do think in a subset of race types there are handicappers who are good enough to equal or better the public choice on win rate, at least by a slim margin. In theory I don't have a problem with that notion.

[green80]

Is it really the public or a few big players or syndicates making large bets? The game has changed where it's not to beat the public any more but to beat the "smart money".

[Gekish]

Up to 8-1 the public correctly identifies a horse's chances to win. After that they start overestimating the chances. Higher the odds more the overestimation. This was all written about Fabricand's book years ago. The title escapes me now.

[Half Smoke]

____________


for those of you who stated - correctly I believe - that it's not really the public anymore - but smart money or syndicates or whatever -

would you agree that in the Triple Crown races and probably even the undercards of those races that it is mainly public money____?

the gigantic pools - it would seem that the smart money could not just easily multiply their normal wager sizes by hundreds to have the same influence

so, my point being that a sharp individual, has a greater chance of being profitable in those races - or of being profitable by more than usual because of the large fields and the truly public money

correct or incorrect___________?



.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

nope. Probably not.

It's not fair to disallow the program or player from seeing the tote/betting market.

However, a good program or player that took up your challenge would otherwise simply mimick the actual favorite in all but a few spot-play races.

well, that's the whole point of what I was asking

a challenge can't be unfair if it's accepted

if he uses tote info then they aren't really his selections imo - at least that is one way of looking at it - granted - using the tote and then making selections would normally be considered that capper's selections

mimicking the tote except in a few spot play races and matching or beating the % that way would not impress me


.