can anyone beat the public_____?

[Bustin Stones]

Exercise in logic:
If these systems guys are the smartest and you assume they create the odds, how are they making money if betting on the favorite doesn't yield a profit?
And around and around we go. If they aren't making a profit, why bother creating the odds?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Exercise in logic:
If these systems guys are the smartest and you assume they create the odds, how are they making money if betting on the favorite doesn't yield a profit?
And around and around we go. If they aren't making a profit, why bother creating the odds?

They don't do it for entertainment. Don't forget they also get a rebate.

[classhandicapper]

Years ago I used do skill tests exactly like this. I'd make a selection in every race trying to pick the most likely to winner for an entire meet and then compare my results to the public choices. I would typically match the public percentage wise but at slightly higher average prices. Basically, most my selections wound up going off the favorite. In the cases where I disagreed, half the time I was right and half the time the public was right. Most of those were close calls on my part that could have gone either way. Occasionally I didn't like the favorite at all and it won anyway. I haven't done anything like that in probably 20 years. If I did it now, I'm fairly certain the public would outperform me by a not insignificant amount even tough I'm a better handicapper now. I think there are more races now where insiders have a bit of an advantage. I'm also less skilled at some of these races with a lot of first time turfers and surface switches. There are more of those now. Straight up high quality dirt though, I think I'd still hold my own.

[MPRanger]

Here's the way I see it. The toteboard is efficient for what it is. But horse
racing itself is not a fair game. In some sports things like trainer
manuevers would sound like outright cheating. A trainer could put a horse
in a race because the racing secretary was haranguing him about helping
to fill out a race. Or the trainer could be using the race as a workout and
have no intention of actually winning the race.

Then there's back side information, secret workouts and things the public
can't know. Back side information can never put you on a certain winner
but it could keep you off a certain loser. (unless someone has straightened
out the jockeys).

Cheap claiming races are less efficient than stakes races. They are more
volatile sometimes for reasons no one could predict. And allowance
races... you're just asking for it. Not saying they're not playable of course.

And everyone accepts this. It's just the way it is.

So what to do? Use an oddsline. You could make it yourself or get it from
a software program or from some expert. But it must be consistent so you
can judge what your options are worth generally the same way most of
the time. You might have two horses that seem about equal. Let the price
make the decision.

Then it depends on who you are. If you're on a betting team getting
rebates play the stakes races. If you're the little guy (but big enough to
have a proper bankroll) then stick with cheap claiming races for your
best chance to profit. Not a good chance though.

These are just my views. I could be wrong I'm no expert.
Point being - The toteboard is mostly efficient. The game itself is crooked. IMHO

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Exercise in logic:
If these systems guys are the smartest and you assume they create the odds, how are they making money if betting on the favorite doesn't yield a profit?
And around and around we go. If they aren't making a profit, why bother creating the odds?

Rebates.

The biz model is to lose 3.5% and make it back on the rebates.

Typically, the bigger the takeout, the higher the rebate.

Thus, exotics are their bread & butter.

[46zilzal]

Best early to best late: GREAT angle for vertrical exotics and "Riding the Coattails' wagering

BTP 3rd today was a classic

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Rebates.

The biz model is to lose 3.5% and make it back on the rebates.

Typically, the bigger the takeout, the higher the rebate.

Thus, exotics are their bread & butter.

I think I can do that, perhaps better, playing only exacta's. Time will tell

[Tom]

God invented exactas so that you can pick 8 winners and go home broke.

[Half Smoke]

____________


this is not directly re my OP but:


I personally believe that more could be profitable betting racing if they dramatically increased their selectivity

if they limited themselves to only those races in which they have the most confidence

but it's like that old commercial - was it Doritos__? which stated______ "nobody can eat just one"

an alternative would be to be bet much bigger on those races where you have high confidence - maybe 10 times as much as on the other races



.

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

____________


this is not directly re my OP but:


I personally believe that more could be profitable betting racing if they dramatically increased their selectivity

if they limited themselves to only those races in which they have the most confidence

but it's like that old commercial - was it Doritos__? which stated______ "nobody can eat just one"

an alternative would be to be bet much bigger on those races where you have high confidence - maybe 10 times as much as on the other races



.

A simillar but more specific thing than having confidence is to
quantify your opinion using an oddsline. Then you can compare
your opinion to the toteboard. If you have a perceived edge then
you can bet whatever the proper portion is relative to the odds you're
getting paid.

Arbitrarily betting 10 times more could have you either under
betting or over betting. Under betting isn't so bad but over
betting is a disaster.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

____________


this is not directly re my OP but:


I personally believe that more could be profitable betting racing if they dramatically increased their selectivity

if they limited themselves to only those races in which they have the most confidence

but it's like that old commercial - was it Doritos__? which stated______ "nobody can eat just one"

an alternative would be to be bet much bigger on those races where you have high confidence - maybe 10 times as much as on the other races



.

Originally Posted by MPRanger

A simillar but more specific thing than having confidence is to
quantify your opinion using an oddsline. Then you can compare
your opinion to the toteboard. If you have a perceived edge then
you can bet whatever the proper portion is relative to the odds you're
getting paid.

Arbitrarily betting 10 times more could have you either under
betting or over betting. Under betting isn't so bad but over
betting is a disaster.

That's part of the problem.

If you run Kelly or some of the other conservative betting amount program, you're bet is pretty low unless you are betting 50% chance 7/5 shots or something.
Everyone loves the Pick 5, better yet to catch a mid-range price in a P5, or a trifecta or whatever, or catching a longshot underneath a logical, etc...

quick example = you have an amazing 10% edge on 5/1 shots on your spot play. Kelly calls for a 2% of bankroll investment. If your bankroll is $1,000 = $20.00

These are fine horseplayer strategies, but with the hit% being low, they are expensive, and mathematically they call for(their %ofBank amounts) a large bankroll.

Both are factors (overbetting your bankroll as well as selective/only-betting-serious-dough-on-spot-plays).

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by MPRanger

A simillar but more specific thing than having confidence is to
quantify your opinion using an oddsline. Then you can compare
your opinion to the toteboard. If you have a perceived edge then
you can bet whatever the proper portion is relative to the odds you're
getting paid.

Arbitrarily betting 10 times more could have you either under
betting or over betting. Under betting isn't so bad but over
betting is a disaster.

Today, your oddsline needs to be close to reflecting the whale bets. Their money goes in near posttime, some say after. Comparing to the tote board no longer works. The displayed odds may be 2/1 loading, 3/2 when the gates open and 2/5 when the horses cross the wire.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Today, your oddsline needs to be close to reflecting the whale bets. Their money goes in near posttime, some say after. Comparing to the tote board no longer works. The displayed odds may be 2/1 loading, 3/2 when the gates open and 2/5 when the horses cross the wire.

all you need are very fast fingers

[green80]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Today, your oddsline needs to be close to reflecting the whale bets. Their money goes in near posttime, some say after. Comparing to the tote board no longer works. The displayed odds may be 2/1 loading, 3/2 when the gates open and 2/5 when the horses cross the wire.

Maybe fixed odds betting will become available at most tracks in the future, seems like the only answer the problem you mentioned.



These days you have try to guess who the whales are going to bet on or any edge you have is gone after the bell.

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Today, your oddsline needs to be close to reflecting the whale bets. Their money goes in near posttime, some say after. Comparing to the tote board no longer works. The displayed odds may be 2/1 loading, 3/2 when the gates open and 2/5 when the horses cross the wire.

OK, I don't think so. Your oddsline should be a win oddsline reflecting
the chances each horse has to win the race. Or just your contenders,
however you make your line. It has nothing to do with who the betting
teams are betting on.

If you want to make a line on who you think the teams are betting on
that seems like a worthwile effort depending on how you play.

One way to avoid late odds changes is to bet cheap claiming
races at tracks with smaller handles to where the tote system can
keep up. Ie; tracks not called Gulfstream or any others where you think
it's a chronic problem.

I'm not privy to what these teams are thinking but it's not in their interest
to tilt the toteboard. Obviously nothing works all the time.

Fixed odds wagering is on the way. It'll be a lot more fun then.