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07-10-2022, 05:48 PM
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#61
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
I was there three weeks ago. It was basically done.
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I knew that. 
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07-11-2022, 11:13 AM
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#62
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Looks pretty much like Ellis Park so maybe that would be a good starting point.
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I'm not an Ellis Park 'guru', and a lot of a given day's 1M Ellis entries are made up of horses that have raced all over, with maybe one or two races going 1m at Ellis in the past performances.
Seems a case-by-case basis.
If the pace is strong, and a horse is caught wide into that first 'half turn' out of the chute, then it does seem that it can take a toll.
Even tougher to predict/project. A wide-posted 'tracker' in a full field with a 'hot' projected pace faces some risks, I guess. It's relatively fair. 9f at Saratoga has more potential for bias.
Certainly not complaining. It seems somewhat of a cool thing. Probably an improvement.
Also like a light sprinkling of variety and even bias, quirks, into handicapping. Reasonable opportunity to handicap and form an opinion. I still have enjoyment from the 1mile '2nd finish line' distance at LRL, and how turf routes often run that distance in off-the-turf situations.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 07-11-2022 at 11:17 AM.
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07-12-2022, 05:23 PM
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#63
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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another perspective
in addition to some outside 'trackers' doing some extra work into the 1st turn of certain hot paces, the first post or two on the inside may be a bit crowded in into the first turn of certain big fields.
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07-12-2022, 05:34 PM
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#64
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Good shot!
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07-12-2022, 07:51 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,056
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07-13-2022, 10:02 AM
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#66
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Chute first, ask questions last
an angle in the opener
that didn't take long  to test various bias theories
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07-13-2022, 10:33 AM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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07-13-2022, 10:57 AM
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#68
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Location: Queens, NY
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I think we'll be able to tell fairly quickly what's going on just by watching a few races develop and seeing how the horses that were used a bit from the outside to get position faired and if inside speed is producing any upside surprises.
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07-14-2022, 03:41 AM
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#69
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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Not so sure how quickly the "bias" of the 1 mile chute start will be evident at 1 or 2 starts per day, but we'll see.
Outside of NYRA, Ellis, Keeneland and Oaklawn are my favorite tracks. But I'm not so much of a fan of the 1 mile races at Ellis - they're tough to decipher, and while inside posts appear to benefit, the inside horses often get checked and get into trouble. I certainly don't mind a tougher puzzle, but it's much more difficult to predict road trouble than other handicapping factors. It does bring up the "either/or" two solution wagering approach though, so that's something.
This seems like a way to address the gap in Saratoga's menu between the 7 and 9 furlong dirt races, but how many horses at the end of the day does this really become critical? I know of a few sires that for breeding are considered excellent "milers", but on the track only one comes to mind that performed best at 1 mile. That's Moment of Hope, who IIRC correctly couldn't catch Groovy at 6 or 7 furlongs, but ran a huge race in the Salvator Mile in 1987.
I'm sure there are others. If I owned or trained a horse that performed best at exactly one mile on the dirt, I'd be looking forward to shipping to the Spa. And at 1.5 turns, the puzzle should be interesting. 
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07-14-2022, 06:00 PM
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#70
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
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Video piece on theWilson Chute
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07-14-2022, 06:12 PM
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#71
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They entered outside-in like SA does for the Downhill...
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07-14-2022, 06:52 PM
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#72
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
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Head on of the race.
Check out the rail horse....is this just camera angle or is she running almost into the rail?
Notice they load towards the outside and have a short temp rail set up right out of the gate.
https://www.facebook.com/1217642635/...4219136278476/
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Last edited by Tom; 07-14-2022 at 06:55 PM.
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07-14-2022, 08:26 PM
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#73
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Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
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Facebook link isn't working. But watching it live it did look like the 1 horse was oriented straight towards the rail. Didn't look great.
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07-15-2022, 09:34 AM
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#74
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The Voice of Reason!
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No Trakus data for the race.
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07-15-2022, 11:30 AM
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#75
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