Watching race replays

[mikesal57]

I think we overloaded this poor guy....

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I think we overloaded this poor guy....

Haha...if you're referring to me, Mike, I'm hanging in there.

Good stuff, guys. A lot to think about here. My main problem is trying to find the time with three kids at home. Being a dad and hobbyist handicapper is rewarding, but tough!

[mikesal57]

[davew]

30 years ago I was going to a dog track heavily for a couple years. I had a friend that was there and he had a note card on every dog at the track. After each race he filled out the cards for every dog in the race. He watched live and then they showed replays a couple times. They also had taped replays at one section of track on case he missed a performance or schooling. He kept info like how they broke, which part of track they liked, if they would pass on outside or inside, if they were bothered or fighter, how they negotiated first turn, how kennel was doing, ....

I admired his dedication and saw that he got good results. Greyhounds are different than horses in many ways.


I do not bet many horse races and use replays occasionally on horses that are getting 'more than expected' money. The last couple races show me if they had problems that cost them or pace scenarios that helped or hurt them.


My thoughts are if a odds-on favorite is a massive underlay or way too much money, then there are others that are overlays. This happens more than you would expect with maidens from top barns.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

I don't use replays a lot, but when I do, I like to have the chart to follow along with. I get the BRIS charts, alternate view, so that it show the running lines as in the PPs and read the notes before I get to the video, so that I have an idea what went on and when to pay attention to anything. I also like to have the pace and speed figs so I know what race shape I am looking at. Note-EB also has the running lines PPs in their charts.

My process is similar.

I usually have the chart, a set of pace figures, Trakus data if available for that track, and my own race flow metrics available when I watch the replay.

I usually start with the gate action looking at both the head on and pan replays to see if there was any bumping and what impact it had. I typically watch the head on and Trakus to make ground loss motes and the pan to look for any other trouble.

I only work that hard for major stakes. The rest of the time I'm just looking for trips I know to be tough that might be missed by the public. I could never be that thorough for every race or multiple tracks.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by CBYRacer

Haha...if you're referring to me, Mike, I'm hanging in there.

Good stuff, guys. A lot to think about here. My main problem is trying to find the time with three kids at home. Being a dad and hobbyist handicapper is rewarding, but tough!

Race-watching is it's own science/art. It's got it's own fundamentals/basics, and a bunch of subtleties and unique situations.

Without knowing what you are doing, you may even end up worse off than you were before, -but it could be enjoyable as a hobbyist, and it is something you could get into and study, if you were interested.

To save time, and to focus on something significant, I would start with video of your selection, and the favorite.
See if anything jumps out to you.

threads on PA, books, youtube (check out "Trips and Traps"), can introduce you to more theory and fundamentals of race watching.

You'll find that some of the same things that you see in numerical pace, and pace projection, and race flow, etc... are also significant in race-watching.

You may want to start a 'watch list', on a site like DRF, where you can make note of stuff you see, and be notified when your horse runs back.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’ve been a big fan of an animal’s pre-race physicality as a major contributor to a horse’s performance in spite of its past performance (good or bad).

That's all ya had to say...

Bingo

[CBYRacer]

Thanks for the continued good advice, everyone. Appreciate your ideas.

[AMPHAR]

I typically get to the contender selection and ranking portion part of handicapping process then watch replays to help sort them out.

Especially if it’s two or more contenders in a rematch.

[Waquoit]

Once in awhile you'll come across a horse with an even, uneventful running line and think meh. But when you watch the race you find that while the horse was never checked or cut off, it never got a chance to run. I like to give those horses a good look next out. And I agree about Stable Mail and the like. It's free.

[mountainman]

When I crossed the country on a Greyhound bus (living HELL-don't EVER do it), I thought I had seen America, but then realized my path may have encompassed the entire width, but had covered just one thin ribbon.

It's the same with T-bred charts and pp's: Your'e looking at widespread snapshots, not the entire thing . And the snapshots, taken out of context, often deceive.

Also, pp's and charts rarely can tell you what the jock was ATTEMPTING to do, and can NEVER convey to what extent, or how easily, the mount was complying.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by mountainman

When I crossed the country on a Greyhound bus (living HELL-don't EVER do it),

I have always heard that on every Greyhound bus there was always one total a-hole, but in all my ride, I never saw one.....

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Tom

I have always heard that on every Greyhound bus there was always one total a-hole, but in all my ride, I never saw one.....

Scenes from a cross-country bus trip-part 1: I was about 20 and travelling from Pittsburgh to San Diego and found myself seated next to an extremely attractive brunette of similar age. Things got friendly by the second night. I was beyond smitten.

Seated directly across from us was a muscular black man wearing an expensive, perfectly tailored suit, but NO shoes (or socks), which unnerved me a great deal.

On the third night the bus stopped at an out-of-the-way, seedy-looking bar/ restaurant. The place was full of drunk rednecks, several of whom, of course, got very crude very quickly with my newfound "companion."

Punches were thrown. I was outnumbered, and one or two of these guys were genuine bad-asses. Two of them held me while another grabbed a pool cue. To this day, I sometimes wonder how bad the outcome would have been-for both Carolyn and myself- had fate not interceded in the form of a muscular well-dressed black man who punched and kicked several of them to bloody pieces. His skill and ferocity were shocking.

Breaking free, I grabbed the guy with the pool cue , gripped his long. greasy hair, and pounded his head 7 or 8 times on a concrete wall. For all I know, the dude could have expired or become a vegetable. Either way, I'm sure I did irreparable damage.

My bare-footed savior turned out to be some sort of kick-boxer attempting to toughen his feet by going without shoes.

Nothing on this earth is quite what it seems. Is it, Tom??

[mountainman]

Scenes from a cross-country bus trip-part 2: Carolyn's destination was Phoenix, AZ, a point at which I had a 5 hour lay-over. Before exiting the bus, she looked at me, paused a long time and asked: "Mark, what are we going to do?"

"Have a good life," I replied. She stumbled away in tears.

Some four-hours ( Mcdonald's and a movie) later, I was lounging, exhausted from my journey, on a park bench when Carolyn happened to pass. The look she gave me, one of sadness and bitterness, but also tinged with an oddly self-assured calm and placidity, still haunts me on occasion.

But the look lasted just a second or two, before I was left only to watch her exit my reality. Her nun's habit swirling in the warm summer wind.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Scenes from a cross-country bus trip-part 2: Carolyn's destination was Phoenix, AZ, a point at which I had a 5 hour lay-over. Before exiting the bus, she looked at me, paused a long time and asked: "Mark, what are we going to do?"

"Have a good life," I replied. She stumbled away in tears.

Some four-hours ( Mcdonald's and a movie) later, I was lounging, exhausted from my journey, on a park bench when Carolyn happened to pass. The look she gave me, one of sadness and bitterness, but also tinged with an oddly self-assured calm and placidity, still haunts me on occasion.

But the look lasted just a second or two, before I was left only to watch her exit my reality. Her nun's habit swirling in the warm summer wind.

Your two posts were really out of nowhere on this thread, but they were great.