Payoff was low

[Brisk Urging]

https://twitter.com/barshoelife/stat...389569/photo/1

Aqueduct race 8

[the little guy]

Why not have to explain for the 200th time that with no CAW money in the win pool, the payoffs in that pool are no longer copacetic with other pools.

The right response is "wow, great value in the win pool."

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Brisk Urging

https://twitter.com/barshoelife/stat...389569/photo/1

Aqueduct race 8

CAW money has been avoiding the win pools at NYRA tracks ever since they were restricted from betting close to post time. But they are in the exotics pools, betting them according to their algorithms. That's why the prices on exotics can seem out of whack with the win prices - it's no longer one big market, but in essence two separate markets.

What's going on is GOOD for the "regular" horseplayer - the NYRA win pools have more stable odds from open to "race off"(and AFTER race off, when the last flash money shows), and you're playing against more of the crowd you used to play against rather than the 900-pound gorilla.

EDIT (I was still composing while TLG was posting) - "What TLG said"

[Robert Fischer]

It's worth asking questions, and trying to understand how the pools work.

I don't have a great understanding of exactly how CAW, syndicates, whales wager, spread, hedge into various pools.

The exacta pools usually become attractive to me when I can safely toss a chalk from the first two or three positions. Apparent underlays in a parimutuel known take exacta pool have to take money expected to go to go on other horses. If CAWs are deflating payouts of prices with this strategy there should be things like an apparent contender who appears on face value to be an exacta overlay but underperforms.
If not, they are perhaps relying more on rebates and hedging.

[sharkey11]

does any one personally know any or all of these so called CAW people im not saying they dont exist but can you please pull the curtian on them and i promiss not to look

[Inner Dirt]

What is a CAW?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

What is a CAW?

Computer Assisted Wagering - one of a few terms used to describe the "whales" who make use of a more direct input to the wagering pools to play virtually instantaneously, and typically at the last minute, ALL the various combinations of wagers their algorithms/models generate.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Computer Assisted Wagering - one of a few terms used to describe the "whales" who make use of a more direct input to the wagering pools to play virtually instantaneously, and typically at the last minute, ALL the various combinations of wagers their algorithms/models generate.

How do they bet, through TVG or the like?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

How do they bet, through TVG or the like?

They work with the track/tote provider itself to have more of a direct interface to upload the wagers in file format, rather than keying in selections on a wagering pad/interface, as I understand it. Each one is essentially acting as its own ADW.

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

It's worth asking questions, and trying to understand how the pools work.

I don't have a great understanding of exactly how CAW, syndicates, whales wager, spread, hedge into various pools.

The exacta pools usually become attractive to me when I can safely toss a chalk from the first two or three positions. Apparent underlays in a parimutuel known take exacta pool have to take money expected to go to go on other horses. If CAWs are deflating payouts of prices with this strategy there should be things like an apparent contender who appears on face value to be an exacta overlay but underperforms.
If not, they are perhaps relying more on rebates and hedging.

As a primarily exacta player, this is sort of bad news for me. But if we can assess rough exacta payouts based on the win odds of a horse, you can do the opposite and look at exacta will pays and extract a range of odds for each horse in the combination. That range can be compared against the win pool odds to identify the horses that the CAWs may be hammering in the exacta pool and not in the win pool. Which is basically what TLG said much more concisely earlier in this thread!

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

They work with the track/tote provider itself to have more of a direct interface to upload the wagers in file format, rather than keying in selections on a wagering pad/interface, as I understand it. Each one is essentially acting as its own ADW.

Can they cancel their own wagers to manipulate pools? I know there are people out there that bet following tote board action.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Can they cancel their own wagers to manipulate pools? I know there are people out there that bet following tote board action.

This is from an interview that Jonathan Stettin of Past the Wire did with a CAW player:

Q; Are there any disadvantages to being a CAW player?

The Player: For one, I can’t cancel any wager. CAW players cannot cancel any wager once played, for any reason. Once we wager it stands, no cancellations at all. It is part of the agreement. We are not allowed any alternates. If a race gets a surface switch and becomes an all-race like in certain jurisdictions we get killed. Or if a horse scratches and I get the post time favorite that for whatever reason I don’t like in that particular race, I am stuck with it. All my wagers are seen and scrutinized. That is part of the deal as well.

Here's the full interview:

https://pastthewire.com/horseracings-true-lifeline/

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

This is from an interview that Jonathan Stettin of Past the Wire did with a CAW player:



Here's the full interview:

https://pastthewire.com/horseracings-true-lifeline/

Thanks much for the information.

[Cholly]

Do the restrictions that discourage CAW money entering the Win pool apply to Place and Show pools also? Or do they apply only to Win?

Do CAW's even bother with Place pools?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cholly

Do the restrictions that discourage CAW money entering the Win pool apply to Place and Show pools also? Or do they apply only to Win?

Do CAW's even bother with Place pools?

I believe it is all the straight pools, WPS.