Parx Show Prices R8 11/13

[alhattab]

Appreciate if someone can someone help me understand this. I realize it's Parx and get all the jokes, but I'm genuinely curious and also found it interesting. I don't think I have seen this before- I've only been playing for 40 years- but maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention. My bankroll would certainly suggest I haven't!

The show prices were $2.10 (1/5 favorite), $26.20 and $33.60. The pools were beyond weird. Total show bets were approx $40k (Place pool $15k). 1/5 winner took "only" $21k of the total to show. The 2d and 3d runners have $405 and $311 (whole dollars) on them to show. Assuming 17% rake, there is about $33k distributable. Once deducting the winning wagers, there's $11.3k of profit to distribute, or about $3.8k per show runner. Odds would be as follows:

1. $3.8/$21= $0.18 rounded down to $0.10 for breakage
2. $3.8/$405= $9.5
3. $3.8/$311= $12.2

Actual payouts implied 12-1 on place horse and 15.5-1 on show horse. I believe this is because the show odds to the winner were actually $0.05 rather than $0.10. That resulted in $0.13 of "breakage", which multiplied by $21k of winning show bets on the favorite gifted an additional $2,600 or so to the other winning show bets. Does that seem correct? I thought the breakage would go to $0.10 but not $0.05.


Thanks!

[Onesome]

In net pool pricing, the host wagering outlet taking the bridgejumping bet is responsible for the minus show pool so somehow they calculate the prices with that in mind. Not sure of specifics though.

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by Onesome

In net pool pricing, the host wagering outlet taking the bridgejumping bet is responsible for the minus show pool so somehow they calculate the prices with that in mind. Not sure of specifics though.

Thank you. Wasn’t aware of that. I always thought a minus pool occurred only when the entire pool was in a minus position. That was not the case here, and even if isolating the favorite there wasn’t a minus position, if that makes sense ie the pool could “afford” paying the favorite show bettors 18 cents on the dollar

[Onesome]

Again not sure of the rules, but consider the fact NYRAbets didnt take show bets on that race

[therussmeister]

Net pool pricing calculates payouts differently than the traditional method in that the pool is divided by three after takeout, but before removing winning wagers. So in your example each show winner gets $11,000 gross after takeout, not $3,800 net.

That means the amount available to the 1/5 winner was not even enough to cover the original wagers.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Net pool pricing calculates payouts differently than the traditional method in that the pool is divided by three after takeout, but before removing winning wagers. So in your example each show winner gets $11,000 gross after takeout, not $3,800 net.

That means the amount available to the 1/5 winner was not even enough to cover the original wagers.

Okay, this isn't right. But I do know with net pool pricing the longer priced horses pay more and the short price horses pay less than with traditional calculations. But I don't remember the specifics of how it's calculated.

[vikingrob]

The method I use to approximate the payout on show pools with net pool pricing is to use the gross-pool method to calculate the prices based on a zero takeout and no breakage, and then apply takeout and breakage.

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Okay, this isn't right. But I do know with net pool pricing the longer priced horses pay more and the short price horses pay less than with traditional calculations. But I don't remember the specifics of how it's calculated.

Thanks Russ. I found a good explanation which I would not have found without the lead on net pool pricing. I haven't attempted to apply it to 11/13 R8 circumstances but seems to explain to a degree. Synopsis is that you don't automatically get $2.10 whenever there is a minus pool because odds are calculated after removing takeout (and currency adjustments) for each runner under net pool. In the case of 11/13 R8, maybe players were trying to manipulate the pool? Not sure how, but see Paulick article in 2d link.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...t-pool-pricing

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s...used%20to%20be.