Latest post bias

[Ray2000]

End of the year and I'm updating my program tables. some might be interested in this.

2008 Post bias expressed as percent difference from expected number of wins for each post
Similar to Trackmaster Post bias numbers for last 30 days. (Some tracks are missing, couldn't find their data)

Data used was from Track web site, which usually gives Winning percentage for each post.
For example, Balmoral track gives Post 4... Starts..1955, Wins... 241 or (12.3%), but it's more helpful to know if this number is above or below the expected. In this case it is the expected number. Post 5 however shows 19% more wins than expected by chance alone. (Numbers for outside posts have too few starts to mean anything)


Track (Races) Post...........1....2......3.....4....5.....6..... .7....8....9...10...11...12

Balmoral Races 1955..........8%...12%....1%....0%...19%....6%..-24%..-33%..-20%.-111%
Buffalo Races 1015..........41%...25%...11%...11%...7%...-58%.-163%.-276%
Calx Races 1664..............6%...-1%...-3%..-12%...31%...-1%..-26%..-52%..-45%..-17%
Dover Races 1900............28%...12%...13%...26%...12%..-45%..-69%.-150%..-20%...14%
Flamboro Races 2296.........46%...26%...16%...17%...-5%..-75%.-181%.-252%..-22%
Frasier Races 1167..........27%...23%...18%...14%....1%..-73%..-97%.-143%....7%
Georgian Races 835..........38%...31%...22%....7%...12%..-43%..-86%.-202%.-125%..-99%
Grand River Races 732.......46%...27%...20%....2%....1%..-80%..-192%-222%....4%
Harrington Races 1694.......41%...23%....6%....4%....6%..-41%..-86%.-146%
Hawthorne Races 230.........11%..-17%..-17%...11%...11%...20%...10%..-81%....9%..-47%
Hoosier Park Races 882.....-13%...13%...-4%...34%...25%..-16%..-22%..-35%..-47%..-19%...54%...78%
Indiana Races 1024..........24%...15%...-6%...18%....6%..-28%..-46%..-14%..-31%....9%.-102%...25%
Maywood Races 1055..........35%...30%...23%....6%...-1%..-66%.-105%.-158%...-1%
Mohawk Races 1335...........-2%..-23%...-4%...-2%...36%...34%...-9%..-48%..-44%..-90%
Northfield Races 2569.......31%...32%...10%...15%....8%..-54%..-87%.-209%..-18%
Northland Races 234.........11%...24%....6%...11%...24%..-33%.-100%.-201%..-21%
Ocean Races 376.............18%...-8%....5%...17%...25%..-30%.-111%.-187%...15%
Pocono Races 1346...........14%...13%....8%...13%...17%...-4%..-55%..-60%..-57%
Pompano Races 1622..........-7%...11%....9%...23%...30%...-6%..-75%..-75%.-140%
Saratoga Races 2034.........32%...20%....8%...22%...10%..-36%.-124%.-139%
Scioto Races 705............14%....8%..-15%...37%...14%..-10%..-43%..-54%.-109%..-14%
The Big M Races 1437.........8%....6%...-3%...-4%...18%...10%...-9%...-5%..-39%..-43%...14%
Tioga Races 522.............17%...10%....5%...17%...21%..-12%..-30%..-58%.-146%
Vernon Races 875.............6%....1%....5%....9%...23%...-4%..-13%..-31%.-163%
Western Fair Races 482......36%...10%...25%...-3%..-31%..-61%.-106%...-2%
Windsor Races 1052...........0%...10%...15%...22%...25%...-8%..-55%..-97%.-173%
Woodbine Races 505.........-32%..-13%....6%....6%...36%...36%...-8%..-49%..-62%.-204%
Yonkers Old data............42%...28%...15%...24%...11%..-34%..-56%..-59%...-1%
The Meadows Old data........34%...10%...11%...31%...47%..-21%..-33%..-53%..-62%...11%

Drawing the rail at Flamboro is almost a walk-over 522 wins this year

[Tom]

Mohawk is very interesting....two side by side middle posts are the only black.
Looks like I'm playing some 5/6 exactas, and some 5,6/5,6/5,6/5,6 Pic 4's!

[DeanT]

Hey Ray,

Do you have ROI data as well? When I tracked Woodbine/Mohawk a couple of years ago I think post 6 was ROI flat profit.

[Postime]

Originally Posted by Tom

Mohawk is very interesting....two side by side middle posts are the only black.
Looks like I'm playing some 5/6 exactas, and some 5,6/5,6/5,6/5,6 Pic 4's!

I think there's a post a few months back, where a member was doing the 5/6 thing at mohawk, must have gotten rich and disappeared.

[Ray2000]

Dean

I have the "Best Posts by Mutuels" for the first 6 months at ...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=49664
The attachment in reply # 5 is the correct one.

I'm updating that list also and I'll put it in this thread when complete.


thanks for the interest, Ray

[DeanT]

thanks Ray. that is some great work.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Hey Ray,

Do you have ROI data as well? When I tracked Woodbine/Mohawk a couple of years ago I think post 6 was ROI flat profit.

Nobody can make money in this game by betting post positions blind for the simple reason you have to bet every race to find out which ones will come through. Betting every race at a track will definitely send you to the poor house sooner than you think. In my humble opinion post position stats by mutuels are meaningless.

However you should be aware of which posts are winning more often than others at a certain track and you can only do that by by keeping stats of the win percentage of each post.

For instance the win % of post 5 currently at Woodbine is 18.7 and of post 6 is 15.9 much higher than the rest of the posts. For post 10 it is only 4.3.
It used to be that post 6 was the winningest post at Woodbine in the mile races but I dont think they are keeping separate stats for the 7/8 mile distance which they should. I am sure that there is a big difference in the stats for these 7/8th mile and the mile races as far as post positions are concerned.

It is also my belief that nothing should over ride your basic handicapping skills. Factors such as driver changes, trainer changes, post position switches, class changes etc etc are all secondary. Your ability to recognize a form horse and your basic capping abilities are the only way to go in making money in this game.

When a good form horse at Woodbine moves to the 5 or 6 hole, by all means go for it.

My 2 cents.

Sea Biscuit