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Old 06-12-2018, 09:06 AM   #181
classhandicapper
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I predict Justify smokes Audible if they ever meet. I don't lose sleep over Audible if I'm connected to Justify in any way.
I'm no soothsayer. I can rarely tell who is going to develop more from here. However, Justify is a much better horse than Audible right now. I'd probably be more worried about Axe Man than Audible.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:23 AM   #182
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Additional thoughts.....

5. People need to stop conflating the need for Justify to be helped (i.e. he would have won anyway) from whether or not there was an attempt to help Justify. It's not as if Justify was some piano dragger that needed the red sea parted in order to get to the finish line. One thing doesn't have anything to do with the other. It's simply whether or not Restoring Hope was purposely used in a way that was beneficial to his barnmate and at a determinant to his own chances.

7. A "rabbit" and a "blocker" are two completely different things in this context. Connections that enter a rabbit in a race with the attempt to soften the early pace is still acting within the boundaries of trying to win the race with said rabbit. It might be on the outer reaches of those boundaries but it isn't that far fetched to see a rabbit forget to stop and keep going despite the early pace. One cannot say that about a blocker who's only roll in the race is to actually create havoc for others.
I agree on the conflating point.

If you are looking for plots and plans you will find one here for sure, but I would argue that you can find dozens of races that look just like this where normal race riding leads to a horse getting rushed up after getting out a little slowly, not handling the turn, herding horses behind them, etc.. with no entry mates or plots involved.

I can't fathom why people are so focused speculating on what the plans were with Restoring Hope when Repole flat out said the plans were to use Noble Indy to soften up Justify even though that horse was not part of an entry and people (like me) bet on him expecting a good faith effort.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:32 AM   #183
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Bravazo got a dream trip on the rail running 3rd most of the race and he’s a closer! What the heck happened with him? Anyone in horse racing knows if a closer is placed in the second or third tier early on they usually blow away the fields. I would have expected nothing less then second from him.
Gronkowski was the only horse all day that came up the inside, tipped out and actually gained ground. That wasn’t a good move to make that day. Everyone that tried, floundered. Except gronk
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:42 AM   #184
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I think it's clear Restoring Hope interfered on purpose on Justify's behalf, but I see the argument he didn't. So I leave a little room for error.

If we only polled third-party observers who don't have a stake in horse racing, I think most of them would believe the bizarre Restoring Hope path to the first turn was planned.

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Old 06-12-2018, 09:53 AM   #185
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I actually know that... but being in a speed duel is different than steering a horse that is going to the lead over a stablemate to the 8 or 9 path.

Making a horse earn something is different than gift wrapping it...

I like Justify, I just think FloGo needs to be suspended and fined heavily.
But FloGo didn't steer anybody but himself out to the 8 or 9 path. This wasn't the 2014 Awesome Again. That was a foul. There wasn't a foul in the Belmont.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:54 AM   #186
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Not sure I understand Jay Hovdey’s Iceberg Metaphor here...
There is a lot more iceberg below the surface than there is above it.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:58 AM   #187
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But FloGo didn't steer anybody but himself out to the 8 or 9 path. This wasn't the 2014 Awesome Again. That was a foul. There wasn't a foul in the Belmont.
Exactly! I’m not saying he fouled anyone... I’m saying it gives the optics that he didn’t give his best effort to his horse!!! Whether he did or didn’t is only something a few people know. Restoring Hope was going to make the lead and he did everything but jump off!

I would have no problem with what he did to Bravazo if RS was going to be laying 2nd naturally...

RS would’ve been on the lead had FloGo not decided to go to the parking lot. It’s not like the horse bolted. This was “omg I can’t make the lead or else I’ll be in trouble, what do I do?” And he didn’t make it look very good.

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Old 06-12-2018, 10:11 AM   #188
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Then again, they may go head and head for better than a mile and smoke each other out, unless, unless maybe, Bob “brings his own (reverse) rabbit again...
Last time Audible tried to beat Justify, he never threatened him, was losing ground a the end, and now is not fit to comptete at any level.

Next time Justify might just EAT HIM.

All this crazy talk - if you want to beat Justify, show up with a better horse.
NOTHING in the Belmont besides Gronk looked like they were race horses.

Especially that last place nag!
Buy a pair of skis, put them on NI and make him a rocking horse!

As for optics of not trying to win, look at ANY random race at Belmont or Aqueduct.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:11 AM   #189
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The notion that Justify "would have won anyway" is simply without basis.

How does anyone know how Justify would have reacted to being pinned on the inside with his right eye covered up? Or forced to run 47 and 1:12.

Nobody knows what would have happened.

I get the "he won easy" and triple crown hero and all that but there is no way for anyone to know if Justify would have burned more energy and if so, how much more energy had he been pinned. And had Geroux raced next to Justify instead of the parking lot into the 1st turn what I just said would have happened.

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Old 06-12-2018, 10:19 AM   #190
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Gronkowski was the only horse all day that came up the inside, tipped out and actually gained ground. That wasn’t a good move to make that day. Everyone that tried, floundered. Except gronk
Hoppertunity spent the better part of the Brooklyn on the rail, tipped out on the far turn, worked through traffic and went on to win.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:22 AM   #191
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Woulda, coulda, shoulda.......he won. If wishes were horses, they should have entered on them - they might have had a better shot than they did with the one they showed up with.

There was time out of the gate for anyone else to rush ahead of RH.
No one did. No one pressed him early, no one challenged him late.

Except Gronk.

No one knows what might have happened, but we do know what did happen.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:24 AM   #192
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Nope, it was not a mistake, here from the draw

https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/statu...15756169220096
Does anyone have an update on the Blks. Off of Restoring Hope announcement at 1pm the day of the race and well after betting had begun ?

Still want to know how you do that without declaring it at time of entry.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:27 AM   #193
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Woulda, coulda, shoulda.......he won. If wishes were horses, they should have entered on them - they might have had a better shot than they did with the one they showed up with.

There was time out of the gate for anyone else to rush ahead of RH.
No one did. No one pressed him early, no one challenged him late.

Except Gronk.

No one knows what might have happened, but we do know what did happen.
Yeah, we do. Geroux screwed the pooch and everyone that bet on his horse to say nothing of the owner. I would mention the groom but who cares about that person. He or she probably has zero morals anyway.

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Old 06-12-2018, 10:55 AM   #194
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Seriously, yourself or anyone that handicapped the Belmont, where did you expect to see Restoring Hope within the first mile of the race?
After handicapping, I expected to see RH in the Easy Goer.
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:01 AM   #195
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Additional thoughts.....

1. There are zero morals in this game by those that earn their living from it. In golf, the code of ethics is so high that a player is required to penalize themselves if they do something against the rules, even if no one else sees it. The importance placed on integrity, both real and perceived, is bigger than any one individual in the game of golf. Do you feel that horse racing has the same mindset?

2. If ever there was a trainer that could utter "the game has been too good to me, I'm not willing to infringe on the integrity of it" it is Bob Baffert. He has won every major race multiple times, already won the Triple Crown, and has built an empire through his accomplishments in this game. It sickens me that despite all the good fortune he's been awarded, he would still think it necessary to create a bit of "insurance" on Saturday and so blatantly in front of millions of people. Then act like there is "nothing to see here". I say this giving him the benefit of the doubt that he won all of these races fairly and nothing gave him even the slightest edge that would be deemed illegal. If there is "more" to his accomplishments than we know, I would say the statement above increases in intensity by 10000%.

3. The integrity oversight in the game is non-existent. It is, and always has been, the well-educated, dedicated, hard-core racing fans that raise holy hell in these situations for anyone to even take a look at it. For the game to rise out of this "shady sport run by shady people" purgatory it exists in, the people policing the game have to make some very hard decisions. Not only does it seem they are unwilling to make the decisions, they seem equally unwilling to investigate.

4. Those that earn their living through reporting on this game are way too close to it to be objective. For anyone who earns their living in such a situation and can't at least concede the Belmont activity doesn't look good and should be discussed, they aren't serious about what they do. I've seen more talking heads act like the rest of the public is a bunch of tin-foil hat lunatics to even question anything as out of line. They are so over-the-top shills for the sport that it is insulting.

5. People need to stop conflating the need for Justify to be helped (i.e. he would have won anyway) from whether or not there was an attempt to help Justify. It's not as if Justify was some piano dragger that needed the red sea parted in order to get to the finish line. One thing doesn't have anything to do with the other. It's simply whether or not Restoring Hope was purposely used in a way that was beneficial to his barnmate and at a determinant to his own chances.

6. There are a lot of lethal, poisonous darts facing this game. You could make an argument that "this or that" could be the "one thing" that brings the game to its knees. This may or may not be true but if true, the "too many horses consolidated into too few barns" has the possibility to be at the head of the pack. There are so many ancillary issues associated with this one phenomena. Not sure what can be done but seeing a stakes race with 9 horses in it trained by Bob Baffert, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher feels like the beginning of the end.

7. A "rabbit" and a "blocker" are two completely different things in this context. Connections that enter a rabbit in a race with the attempt to soften the early pace is still acting within the boundaries of trying to win the race with said rabbit. It might be on the outer reaches of those boundaries but it isn't that far fetched to see a rabbit forget to stop and keep going despite the early pace. One cannot say that about a blocker who's only roll in the race is to actually create havoc for others.
Another amazing post.

I would especially echo 1 and 2. I play poker sometimes, another game dominated by sleazy characters and without effective regulation. And I practice law, which isn't quite as terrible as racing or poker but is underregulated by insiders and has plenty of ethical problems.

I don't think everyone cares about having an honest game, but an honest game starts with aggressive regulators. Golf is as honest as it is because if you sign your scorecard after doing anything against the rules, you are totally disqualified. There is no half-punishment. If my profession would disbar dishonest lawyers, we would suddenly see people acting a lot more honestly.

To me the most disappointing thing about this is NY won't even investigate. Why not? Why not at least conduct an investigation and bring everyone in and swear them under penalty of perjury to tell the truth? It's only the biggest race in 4 years in the entire state of New York.

They don't do this because the regulators want to protect their friends. And that says everything.
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