TFUS foreign figures

[kevb]

I appreciate having speed figures for foreign shippers, especially at BC time. I know that TFUS works at aligning the US and foreign figures, but it seems to me that the shippers routinely run 10-15 points higher in their 1st US start. And the good shippers can run 20 points higher. Does this square with other users experience?

[cj]

Originally Posted by kevb

I appreciate having speed figures for foreign shippers, especially at BC time. I know that TFUS works at aligning the US and foreign figures, but it seems to me that the shippers routinely run 10-15 points higher in their 1st US start. And the good shippers can run 20 points higher. Does this square with other users experience?

There is no way that is true. Give a few examples.

[kevb]

Bronzino: 87s in France, First out 105 SA
Danilova: 71 Newmarket, 98 first out SA
Great Page: 77-96 England, 102 SA
Barleysugar: 95 England, 116 first SA
Cape Wolfe: 102 IRE, 111 -116 SA
Harbour Master: 90s England, 100 SA
Prize Exhibit: 80-90s England, 105 SA, 117 BEL
Miss Katie: 87 best IRE, 93 KEE,104 PIM
Sea Calisi: 112 FR, 118 and 121 BEL
Photo Call: 72-82 IRE, 105 first out KEE

I have a lot of respect for the TFUS figures CJ, and obviously there are cases where the foreign figures and first out US figures are more in line. I'm wondering if the faster times that I observe are due to medication, training methods or different US running styles. Maybe I am one of only a few handicappers who assume a 10 point improvement, and maybe it's to my detriment.

[CosmicWon]

Check out like Hit it A Bomb. He ran very comparable in his Kee BC win as he did in Europe on TFUS. Plus these are animals improving all the time (especially if they are age 5 or younger) so any improvement should be expected.

I for one am Devoted to the TFUS data on the foreign horses and it's not because of the numbers. It's within the comments where the value lays. Read them chronologically and I guarantee you will find nuggets that help your betting.

The TF comments (in addition to using various figs like TF, Rags, etc then backing up that info from Euro replays) are what helped me absolutely kill in the Bel Derby this year. Everyone was on that hanging SOB Long Island Sound when the clear play was Deauville who was essentially handed to you on a platter via Timeform.

Stuff like that is invaluable so consider, as Euro punters do, that there is more to interpreting a race than numbers, such as class, footing, field size, equipment and rider changes. And learn your class lines for Euro form. I'm no expert on that kind of thing but you'd be surprised on the nuggets you pick up by reading the TDN regularly (or even just weekends). And it's free.

My two cents...don't give up on TFUS, just use what you know and assume a 10pt jump if you'd like. If that 10pts puts your horse in the mix then you're golden.

GL this weekend.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by kevb

Bronzino: 87s in France, First out 105 SA
Danilova: 71 Newmarket, 98 first out SA
Great Page: 77-96 England, 102 SA
Barleysugar: 95 England, 116 first SA
Cape Wolfe: 102 IRE, 111 -116 SA
Harbour Master: 90s England, 100 SA
Prize Exhibit: 80-90s England, 105 SA, 117 BEL
Miss Katie: 87 best IRE, 93 KEE,104 PIM
Sea Calisi: 112 FR, 118 and 121 BEL
Photo Call: 72-82 IRE, 105 first out KEE

I have a lot of respect for the TFUS figures CJ, and obviously there are cases where the foreign figures and first out US figures are more in line. I'm wondering if the faster times that I observe are due to medication, training methods or different US running styles. Maybe I am one of only a few handicappers who assume a 10 point improvement, and maybe it's to my detriment.

Your examples are probably horses that really benefit from Lasix (bad bleeders), or are placed with a savvy North American trainer, or both. Your notes of "first out" is a giveaway. It's not cheap to ship horses from overseas, so the connections tend to do it with horses that have some talent and will benefit from lasix. The good trainers will spot the Euro properly in their first start, to recoup the shipping and time off costs, and of course give the pony some confidence. Over time and more starts, you should see the horse "normalize" to figure levels that are higher due to lasix, or to revert back (the Euro bounce) to figures more comparable to when they were in Europe.

The Breeder's Cup presents a special challenge for the horses coming over for a single start. Noting their use of lasix, and whether or not their class level makes them competitive might be a better indicator than trying to translate Timeform figures alone.

[kevb]

Originally Posted by CosmicWon

Read them chronologically and I guarantee you will find nuggets that help your betting.
GL this weekend.

That's a very good suggestion. I read most of the foreign horse comments, but not like a developing story. Thanks for the tip.

[kevb]

Originally Posted by CosmicWon

My two cents...don't give up on TFUS, just use what you know and assume a 10pt jump if you'd like. If that 10pts puts your horse in the mix then you're golden.

GL this weekend.

I am a big fan of TFUS, and I will continue to use them. I was just pointing out that I assume there will be about a 10 pt jump in the shipper's first start in the US figure-for whatever reason. I was curious if anyone else was in the same camp. Based on the lack of "me too" replies, I think not very many people see it the way I do. No problem. GL to you too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by kevb

Bronzino: 87s in France, First out 105 SA
Danilova: 71 Newmarket, 98 first out SA
Great Page: 77-96 England, 102 SA
Barleysugar: 95 England, 116 first SA
Cape Wolfe: 102 IRE, 111 -116 SA
Harbour Master: 90s England, 100 SA
Prize Exhibit: 80-90s England, 105 SA, 117 BEL
Miss Katie: 87 best IRE, 93 KEE,104 PIM
Sea Calisi: 112 FR, 118 and 121 BEL
Photo Call: 72-82 IRE, 105 first out KEE

I have a lot of respect for the TFUS figures CJ, and obviously there are cases where the foreign figures and first out US figures are more in line. I'm wondering if the faster times that I observe are due to medication, training methods or different US running styles. Maybe I am one of only a few handicappers who assume a 10 point improvement, and maybe it's to my detriment.

Thanks, I appreciate the input. I personally think the 10 points is too much, but every horse is different. My problem was with the use of the word "routinely" because the majority do not run that much faster.

However, those that do improve (just like any other type of race) offer value if you can find it. I feel those that improve most often add Lasix and really needed it because they are bleeders. I also think it is important to note things like if the horse is just shipping in with a target in mind, or was it a private sale? Is the horse going to a top US trainer or someone else? Was the overseas trainer a top guy or not? Maybe there is no trainer change at all.

All of those things play into my handicapping with the shippers. An older horse shipping in for the BC is probably going to run a similar number. A younger horse, gotta do the homework IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

There are some good turf horses overseas.

Not easy to apply a formula that 'translates' each horses form across all conditions/styles/tracks.

I honestly don't know if you are correct that the figure translation is a little bit conservative across the board, or if you happen to be noticing a certain pattern/examples of shippers whose figure translation is too conservative.

It's not unheard of for a promising turf horse to ship over to someone like Chad Brown, and be entered in a race where the winning figure is thought to be around 'x', and be well-backed by the betting public, and then go out and run a figure around 'x'.
In situations like that pattern, value to be gleaned from past speed figs isn't going to happen every time, but just the same, it is nice to have that info on hand.

A lot of time the value in foreign shippers coming to big US races (IMO), involves horses that aren't the highly regarded G1 favorite, that haven't won every trophy at today's distance (certain types of foreign turf horses have been good to me when adding distance in the US), and you try to get them(the 'other' shipper, the 'stretchout' shipper, etc..) to light up the board in single-race exotics.

I give some trust to the connections for not wildly missing their proper classification, and Youtube has been good to me with a library of most of the foreign stakes.