Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-04-2020, 03:51 PM   #46
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
IMO, Tacitus is going to be the favorite (probably clear).

He's dropping into a weaker race, working better than he ever has in his career, seems set for a top effort, and the spot is almost certainly designed to try get a win into him to turn his career back around.

If he's going to break out, today is the day.

That's why I'm saying, if he doesn't, he's just not that good. I guess there's a chance he fires a big top and gets beat anyway, but that would be ridiculously bad luck.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-04-2020 at 03:56 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 03:59 PM   #47
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 04:21 PM   #48
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.
I expect Tacitus to win but think he's unplayable. I don't want Mr Buff at 10F and think Morreti's last is at least somewhat suspect. Sir Winston would be the only one I'd consider, but I'm not convinced off the Belmont perfect trip.

I've been telling you the problem with the analysis of those that have been making excuses for Tacitus for close to a year and why a simple win over Mr Buff is not going to vindicate them. It's going to take more than that. Mr Buff is NOT a top graded horse. He's a 100 horse plus or minus a little.

Some of his fans on Twitter are already making excuses for him because Joevia got scratched and took some speed out of the race. They didn't even run the race yet.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-04-2020 at 04:31 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 04:48 PM   #49
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Tacitus is not going to run down a loose, brave, top-Beyer Mr. Buff.


Tacitus will run down a wrong-lead Mr. Buff who had to do some work during the race.


Two scenarios.

In the forward-favoring scenario I want MR. BUFF on top,
+ the 50/1ml Parsimony and/or the Moretti to hold on for a piece of the dime super.


In the fair scenario, I want TACITUS on top, and the 30/1ml Forewarned somewhere in my dime super.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 04:51 PM   #50
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.

Very helpful.
"6 WINNERS yesta-day!"

"1 on top!"
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 05:06 PM   #51
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
Will the and hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 05:27 PM   #52
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Will the and hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.
5 scratched.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 05:33 PM   #53
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
5 scratched.
Big scratch.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 06:44 PM   #54
jimmyb
Registered User
 
jimmyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,436
I'm leaning towards Mr. Buff. I picture him leading as far as he goes.

tacitus up late or Mr. Buff all the way

Last edited by jimmyb; 07-04-2020 at 06:56 PM.
jimmyb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 06:49 PM   #55
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
With Joevia out Tacitus may have to play watchdog to keep Mr Buff honest. I can't imagine that's the role Mott wants him to play. I think he chases in vain and gets passed by a few. Sir Winston seems poised to take advantage. Also using the #7 in minor slots...10f may be good for him.

Ex: 4-6 w 4-6-7
Tri: 4-6 w 1-4-6-8 w 7
Win: 6
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 06:51 PM   #56
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.
Yeah, seems like he's jumping the gun. The horse hadn't been out for 5 months when he finished with mild interest in Saudi Arabia and then did the same at Oaklawn in a merry-go-round race despite getting hung out to dry on the first turn and staying wide throughout. They often say 3rd time off the bench is the best.

Meanwhile, the previous blinker experiment was a complete bust. Yeah, he showed more speed but he also gave way down the lane in both starts. There is no Code of Honor in this field, though, so maybe he'll get it done despite the blinkers.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 06:54 PM   #57
Muddy
Muddy
 
Muddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Mi.
Posts: 2,651
Scratched.
Muddy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 06:55 PM   #58
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb View Post
I'm leaning towards Mr. Buff. I picture him leading as far as he goes. Forewarned closing like a freight train


Late Scratch
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 07:00 PM   #59
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
Long ways back to the and .
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-04-2020, 07:01 PM   #60
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
Funny splits: 48.3 - 110.8 ???
Hmmm....
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.