|
|
07-04-2020, 03:51 PM
|
#46
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
|
IMO, Tacitus is going to be the favorite (probably clear).
He's dropping into a weaker race, working better than he ever has in his career, seems set for a top effort, and the spot is almost certainly designed to try get a win into him to turn his career back around.
If he's going to break out, today is the day.
That's why I'm saying, if he doesn't, he's just not that good. I guess there's a chance he fires a big top and gets beat anyway, but that would be ridiculously bad luck.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-04-2020 at 03:56 PM.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 03:59 PM
|
#47
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
|
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.
Very helpful.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 04:21 PM
|
#48
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.
Very helpful.
|
I expect Tacitus to win but think he's unplayable. I don't want Mr Buff at 10F and think Morreti's last is at least somewhat suspect. Sir Winston would be the only one I'd consider, but I'm not convinced off the Belmont perfect trip.
I've been telling you the problem with the analysis of those that have been making excuses for Tacitus for close to a year and why a simple win over Mr Buff is not going to vindicate them. It's going to take more than that. Mr Buff is NOT a top graded horse. He's a 100 horse plus or minus a little.
Some of his fans on Twitter are already making excuses for him because Joevia got scratched and took some speed out of the race. They didn't even run the race yet.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-04-2020 at 04:31 PM.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 04:48 PM
|
#49
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
Tacitus is not going to run down a loose, brave, top-Beyer Mr. Buff.
Tacitus will run down a wrong-lead Mr. Buff who had to do some work during the race.
Two scenarios.
In the forward-favoring scenario I want MR. BUFF on top,
+ the 50/1ml Parsimony and/or the Moretti to hold on for a piece of the dime super.
In the fair scenario, I want TACITUS on top, and the 30/1ml Forewarned somewhere in my dime super.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 04:51 PM
|
#50
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
In a 5000 word dissertation, basically you will be right regardless of what happens ( unless he is not a clear cut favorite )....if he wins you called it and if he loses you said he was a phony.
Very helpful.
|
"6 WINNERS yesta-day!"
"1 on top!"
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 05:06 PM
|
#51
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Will the and hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 05:27 PM
|
#52
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Will the and hook? If you think they will, I do, gives the pace dependent a shot. Going to play him in all three slots.
|
5 scratched.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 05:33 PM
|
#53
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
5 scratched.
|
Big scratch.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 06:44 PM
|
#54
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,436
|
I'm leaning towards Mr. Buff. I picture him leading as far as he goes.
tacitus up late or Mr. Buff all the way
Last edited by jimmyb; 07-04-2020 at 06:56 PM.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 06:49 PM
|
#55
|
C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
|
With Joevia out Tacitus may have to play watchdog to keep Mr Buff honest. I can't imagine that's the role Mott wants him to play. I think he chases in vain and gets passed by a few. Sir Winston seems poised to take advantage. Also using the #7 in minor slots...10f may be good for him.
Ex: 4-6 w 4-6-7
Tri: 4-6 w 1-4-6-8 w 7
Win: 6
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 06:51 PM
|
#56
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It worries me the blinkers are going back on. It feels like a guessing game at this point for Bill Mott, somebody that certainly knows what he is doing.
|
Yeah, seems like he's jumping the gun. The horse hadn't been out for 5 months when he finished with mild interest in Saudi Arabia and then did the same at Oaklawn in a merry-go-round race despite getting hung out to dry on the first turn and staying wide throughout. They often say 3rd time off the bench is the best.
Meanwhile, the previous blinker experiment was a complete bust. Yeah, he showed more speed but he also gave way down the lane in both starts. There is no Code of Honor in this field, though, so maybe he'll get it done despite the blinkers.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 06:54 PM
|
#57
|
Muddy
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Mi.
Posts: 2,651
|
Scratched.
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 06:55 PM
|
#58
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb
|
Late Scratch
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 07:00 PM
|
#59
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Long ways back to the and .
|
|
|
07-04-2020, 07:01 PM
|
#60
|
C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
|
Funny splits: 48.3 - 110.8 ???
Hmmm....
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|