Belmont Race 2 May 11th

[Colorado_Mike]

The point of me posting this is nothing more then me trying something new. I didn't edit the post, mostly due to not knowing if people will read it. I simply jotted down some thoughts in Race 2 at Belmont May 11th. This by far is the greatest races of races but it kicks off the pick 4 and maybe we can get converse about a horse to single or a price to play or etc, I'm leaning with the 4 but would love to see what others think. Sorry if it's long but I got really into it.

2nd Race
3 year olds and up, One mile Clm 16k N2L

1horse interior secretary
Dropping in from 62k, ran last race at big odds. Life 1/13, 0/3 at distance, hit board 2/8 on fast track, 0/4 racing at belmont. Contessa at .08 percent in 2016, Franco at 14, j/t combo is .10. running same distance as race, going from turf to dirt though which trainer is at .18 horse race 4 of 5 last race races at md 25k level winning once. the distance it won at was 7furlongs with a 56 beer. sat off pace and closed nicely. horse had a comment last race saying tired. this is the sixth race this horse has this cycle. thinking it is done and just needs a break. i think this is a desperate attempt from owner/trainer trying to make some money. the horse was over a 100k purchase and has only made 52k in life. not good on 14 races. They would be lucky to get someone to claim this horse for 16k.

2 horse Big East
You know I’m a sucker for a first time gelding horse. This 3 year old has ran six races winning 1 and finishing 2nd three times. At the distance horse is 1 win 2 places in 5 races. So the horse clearly likes the distance. Looking at bruce levies trainer stats they seem ok with everything hanging around 20 percent. not one statistic stands out though. Carmouche is a favorite of mine on mid to long shots, 17 percent for year isn’t bad with a t/j combo at 13 percent for belmont. horse has been running at md 25k level with last race over six weeks ago. I like the consistency here with the horse doing well the last 4 races. Beyer numbers are consistent. distance seems right for horse. what is the issue. putting the horse in for 16k makes think the owner and trainer aren’t sure about it. i like the gelding angle though and if the horse looks ok on the track I think 10-1 is a great price. Id even let it slip down a little. Consider for a win, place and show bet depending on how horse looks on track. would consider using in double, pick 3, pick 4 and 5 play.

3 horse Jacob’s Here
5 year old has ran 17 races, 9 of the races have been at this distance with one place and one show. horse has 3 races at belmont hitting 2nd once and 3rd once. Trainer is at 10 percent clip for 16, low sample of 31 though. jockey is at .09 percent in 134 mounts. no j/t combo noted. last two race were at a mile in the 14n2l level. so this race isn’t really much of a difference. . last race was an akward start, horse pretty much hung out in the back making no sort of drive home to finish. shows nothing. race before at same distance horse faded. just ran a mile on the slop for practice, good 10 seconds behind winning time of last 14k race winner.

4 horse Swivel
4 year old gelding has one win in 11 races for his career. At this distance horse has 3 times, hitting a 3rd once and nothing else. trainer has a 15 percent clip in 53 races. Alvardo is at 16 percent in 250 mounts. j/t combo is 0 percent in six tries at belmont . last three races at 14000 n2l level. beer improvement each race. horse did the same thing each race and faded at end. tends last race went to front but could get lead and ended up driving only to be out kicked. no great trainer statistics standout. i do like though the last time horse ran was april 13th, comes back to work the 30th in 51 seconds and then 3 furlongs at 37 seconds a couple of weeks later. it makes me think the horse has something in the take still even though it has ran six races in 5 months

5 horse Baldonnel
Another entry from Contessa. This one looks a little more hopeful. 14 life starts, one win, one place and 2 shows. at the distance 2 starts with one show. trainer is at .08 percent and jockey is at -07 percent for 2016. horse has raced at belmont once, finishing 3rd in that race. last race was a few weeks ago on the turf going a mile and sixteenth. didn’t showing anything but trip was rough. continuing to drop in class, 2 races ago was at 50k allowance level, then last race with new trainer was at 25nl2 but didn’t fire. variance numbers are good though for this crop 73-09 last race. last two beyers were horrible but 3 and 4 back they were good enough to win this distance. horse seems comfy at this distance bu shit it has won in almost two years. only hitting board twice in last 7 races. this horse is dropping pretty big and has been racing in higher class. will that be enough though for it? 12-1 seems like the right price but unless he looks amazing on the track I have to pass.

6 Saratoga Sight
300k horse out of tapir and now racing for nothing. just begging someone to claim this horse. pletcher having a horse in this low level of race shows pure desperation. You know he is a good trainer so you don’t need to look at his stats. Cancel get the mount which is fine with me. he is capable. j/t is .29 with a low sample. horse hasn’t ran at belmont and is 2/2 hitting board at the distance. simply put last race looks good enough for this horse to win this race. questioning though why put it at such a low level other then wanting it to get claimed so you can move on from it. recent work was ok and at 7-2 I would maybe bet it two win if he looks good on track. The thing is though you know it will be bet down. wait and see game

7 Rare Eagle
making a drop from 40k to 14k nl3. trainer at 13 percent, jock at .06. 4 races at distance 1 2nd and 2 3rd. 3 for 5 at belmont. horses like distance and track. 201 ml and should be. beyers are consistent and higher then other in race with only 6 being comparable. tough betting a horse with one win and 16 races to his belt. cheap horse though has done well for owner. no value at win or place bet. would have to include if exotics and pick 3, pick 4 and pick 5

8 Texas Tea
Another Pletcher horse and this one I already like more. 90 k horse is a 3 year old lightly raced 1 win and 1 2nd in 5 races. 4 of 5 career races have been at this distance. jockey is solid, j/t combo 19 percent. beyers maybe not as high as others but i don’t think that would be enough to scare me off. one work since last race, would like to have seen 2. faded last out and race before that was really bad. adding blinks to horse, maybe that would help a lot. just wonder if something is wrong with horse after last horrible races. plus to be at this level once again with a pricy horse why drop it so low other then wanting to get rid of it.

[Tall One]

-- Not sure why the huge jump on turf in the last, but he's being more realistic in this spot. 25k was the level he broke his maiden at, and this is just his second attempt vs winners. 6 races since the claim: 1-1-0-1

Levine/Carmouche, and as you noted FTG. Another point I'll make...this is his first try against older horses.

Been at/below the 16n2l class level for the last 3, running creditably 3 of those around 2 turns. 2nd off, JA is back on again, and is 2nd off the brief breather back in March.

turfer, passed.

2nd time in open company, drops to a N2L level, and Cancel stays on.

Hate these types of class drops, but LOVE to play against.

Has ran in open company at GP, and NY, and Saez has won on him before.

Gotta love this class level...GL..

[Colorado_Mike]

Originally Posted by Tall One

-- Not sure why the huge jump on turf in the last, but he's being more realistic in this spot. 25k was the level he broke his maiden at, and this is just his second attempt vs winners. 6 races since the claim: 1-1-0-1

Levine/Carmouche, and as you noted FTG. Another point I'll make...this is his first try against older horses.

Been at/below the 16n2l class level for the last 3, running creditably 3 of those around 2 turns. 2nd off, JA is back on again, and is 2nd off the brief breather back in March.

turfer, passed.

2nd time in open company, drops to a N2L level, and Cancel stays on.

Hate these types of class drops, but LOVE to play against.

Has ran in open company at GP, and NY, and Saez has won on him before.

Gotta love this class level...GL..

Thanks for the feedback, I know it's a joke of a race but it still is some what interesting I guess. I think if the 4 stays around 6-1 he may be worth a bet. Agree with you one everything you noted. Cancel may be the play, I'm off on both Pletcher horses. They win, they win but they will go off at nothing and would be a horrible play other then maybe singling on your p3, p4 or p5.

[VigorsTheGrey]

scroll down a little to May 11 2nd race

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by Colorado_Mike

Cancel may be the play, I'm off on both Pletcher horses. They win, they win but they will go off at nothing and would be a horrible play other then maybe singling on your p3, p4 or p5.

Yeah, when I see two like TAP has in here, and Albertrani's entry as well, I hope to beat them right off the bat, and I think that's the 1,2 or 4...least you'll get a price from one of those.

While these aren't the best races they card, it's still a good way to interpret class, study trainer intent, and just a good exercise in handicapping. I 'cap more than I bet--at least during the week--but I still enjoy throwing in an opinion or two on a card or race.

Also, welcome to the board, CM, and best of luck..

[NJ Stinks]

Thanks for the PP's link, Vigors.

I think you summed up this race well with your comments on Saratoga Sight, Mike.

The race appears to be a will he or won't he relating to Saratoga Sight. Betting on or against SS is not a something I look forward to.

[Colorado_Mike]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

Thanks for the PP's link, Vigors.

I think you summed up this race well with your comments on Saratoga Sight, Mike.

The race appears to be a will he or won't he relating to Saratoga Sight. Betting on or against SS is not a something I look forward to.

Thanks! If I bet the race it will be on the 4. Going to wait and see how he looks on the track. I really want to play the early pick 4 but so far I haven't had much confidence in anything. I'm not wanting to play a big ticket either, then chalk rolls in and I cash for nothing. Still capping the card though, race 3 looks more interesting.

[Colorado_Mike]

Thank you! I'm basically trying to learn as much as can while reviewing all the available information. I've played the ponies a while but have never really put effort into stepping my game up. I have a whole new thought process now when it comes to making decisions on what I'm going to bet. This board seems like a great place to share thoughts and come up with some plays.

[VigorsTheGrey]

In the Bris PPs, why does the 3 get an Sustained Rating of 3, while both 6 and 7 get only S 0?
Both 6 and 7 had better late speed last out, better overall speed, and yet get rated lower than 3? Makes me wonder how Bris arrives at this ranking...

[Colorado_Mike]

Not sure Vigors, I can't stand Brisnet PP's to be honest with you. I use DRF classic PP's of Formulator. I like breaking the races down but I feel like brisnet goes way too in depth and all the numbers and letters and codes just confuse the shit out of me. Sorry I'm no help there.

[overthehill]

saratoga sight. i dont get this. I suspect there will be several trying to claim this horse for $16k. I think the horse is a steal at this price. Its only three years old and they never even tried the colt on turf. its worth a shot for sure to claim and see if the horse gets better with age, longer distance, turf. I suspect it will be lower than 7/2 here.

[Ocala Mike]

Looks like a chaos race to me; will reach for the , BALDONNEL, W/P - he fits my dropdown system rules.

[bello]

I handicapped before I saw the thread so I will post before reading other comments.

Handicapping Belmont this week as I ope to be there Friday. Not my usual track.

Race 4
#6 Saratoga Sight...Pletcher does not want or need horses that don't produce at higher levels in his barn so these value drops do not concern me like they might with other trainers.

#4 Swivel...hoping forcontinued improvement on a dry,one turn effort as wqas shown on 04-11

[deathandgravity]

Jockey/Trainer/Sire/Distance/Down in purse have a +290 ROI in my database. (but! & it’s a big but… my sample size is fairly small for NYRA… only about 600 race days @ BEL, AQU & SAR)

If I was playing today, probably hit the all button on a P4

by the numbers it's:

[Stillriledup]

I like the jock chg on the 3, maybe he can sneak Into the tri