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Old 04-26-2009, 03:25 PM   #1
Cangamble
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Keeneland Handle Off 19.2%

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.
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Old 04-26-2009, 03:50 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangamble
http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.
It's the surface!
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Old 04-26-2009, 03:53 PM   #3
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The Big-A wraps up today. Their numbers should be published in the next few days and should be a good comparison to the numbers produced by the synthetic tracks.
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Old 04-26-2009, 03:57 PM   #4
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IT'S THE SURFACE STUPID

(not calling anyone stupid, just using the old political catch phrase)
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Old 04-26-2009, 08:03 PM   #5
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Agreed. The surface. I used to play Keeneland but have not wagered a cent there since the switch to the Poly-crap.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:02 PM   #6
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I only bet one race this meeting....

...for $50.

Last spring I sent $3,272 through the Keeneland windows.

Maybe there are more like me than I thought....
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:17 PM   #7
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It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:19 PM   #8
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I'll follow the crowd on this one: it's the surface.

I'd hope some one will do a statistical analysis of the winning odds of SAX, KEE and any other AWS track and compare those numbers to AQU, GPX and any other real dirt surface.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:31 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.
Huh???????

Keeneland Race Course on Monday released a full business report that revealed average all-sources handle at its 16-day spring meet was down 11 percent over the corresponding 2007 meet, while average ontrack handle was down nearly 6 percent despite an increase in average attendance of 6 percent.

Although the estimated gross all-sources handle of $150.45 million was the second highest in track history, behind only the $158.4 million handled last year, there was an additional day of racing this year at a meet that ran April 4-25 at the Lexington, Ky., track. Average all-sources handle was $9.4 million, down substantially from the nearly $10.6 million bet daily in 2007.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...0&subs=0&arc=1
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:31 PM   #10
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Field size has shown the major correlation. An increase in 1.0 horses translates to a 10% change in handle. OPX field size was up by 0.5 horses and their handle was up 4%. GPX field size was up 0.5 horses and they increased handle by 5%. Conversely, Hawthorne lost field size appreciably this year and they will see a major reduction in handle, as Turfway saw this year. Hawthorne dirt, TPX poly: Same metrics when it comes to field size.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:33 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Huh???????

Keeneland Race Course on Monday released a full business report that revealed average all-sources handle at its 16-day spring meet was down 11 percent over the corresponding 2007 meet, while average ontrack handle was down nearly 6 percent despite an increase in average attendance of 6 percent.

Although the estimated gross all-sources handle of $150.45 million was the second highest in track history, behind only the $158.4 million handled last year, there was an additional day of racing this year at a meet that ran April 4-25 at the Lexington, Ky., track. Average all-sources handle was $9.4 million, down substantially from the nearly $10.6 million bet daily in 2007.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...0&subs=0&arc=1
That is why I am asking what the field size was. If it was down by 1-1.5 a 15-20% reduction is right in line with historical metrics.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:34 PM   #12
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okay,


it's not ONE thing. it's not JUST the surfact, it's the Surfact + the economy being crap and the horse players out there that are still putting real cake through the window are going for what they know with the money they are spending.

The first thing you do when you cut back on your wagering is you stay with the bets that you know work at the tracks you know. When I am really in a slump the first thing I do is cut out exotics and go back to the tracks I feel the most comfortable with (Oaklawn, churchill and mountineer). I'm pretty sure this is what it is.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:35 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
That is why I am asking what the field size was. If it was down by 1-1.5 a 15-20% reduction is right in line with historical metrics.
Sorry, I got confused by your wording.

I thought you said spring 2008 was up 20%

Last edited by InsideThePylons-MW; 04-26-2009 at 09:38 PM.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:43 PM   #14
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Its the surface. Ask any big bettor who has stopped playing Keeneland and 9 out of 10 will tell you they can't bet big money on polycrap.


I've stopped Keeneland cold turkey, i don't even look at the PPs anymore, Keeneland is persona non grata to me.
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Old 04-26-2009, 09:45 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.
It is the surface. Big bettors gave that track a shot, that's why handle was at normal levels. But, most players just got tired of the random factor and just stopped betting this place. I gave poly a shot at Del mar and keene and other places and it was no use, i left those meets feeling like i was a rank amateur. Those places made me feel like i didn't know the first thing about this game, that's a bad feeling when you've spend many years getting really GOOD at this game.
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