Stock Market Prediction

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

Yeah, YTD gold is up about 12%, silver around 6% and platinum up a little over 8%, which averages out to a 9% or so gain for the precious metals complex. Never seen anything stronger? I bet I can find 25 different 9-month periods since 1970 that show better appreciation. I have no opinion on gold, silver or platinum (although I appreciate your fiat currency argument), but the recent move has been nothing special. Perhaps it will turn into a roaring precious metals market, but that hasn't happened yet.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Yeah, YTD gold is up about 12%, silver around 6% and platinum up a little over 8%, which averages out to a 9% or so gain for the precious metals complex. Never seen anything stronger? I bet I can find 25 different 9-month periods since 1970 that show better appreciation. I have no opinion on gold, silver or platinum (although I appreciate your fiat currency argument), but the recent move has been nothing special. Perhaps it will turn into a roaring precious metals market, but that hasn't happened yet.

now i am going to bet you can never find anything stronger than gold is right here and right now.

knowing what has happened never put any money in anyone's pockets. i am telling you what is going to happen ahead of time due to the strength i see in it.

if you want to deal in recent history you will go broke chasing these things.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

now i am going to bet you can never find anything stronger than gold is right here and right now.

knowing what has happened never put any money in anyone's pockets. i am telling you what is going to happen ahead of time due to the strength i see in it.

if you want to deal in recent history you will go broke chasing these things.

I have no opinion on your forecast. None. I was simply commenting on your "recent action being the strongest you've ever seen" comment. Unless you've only followed the precious metals markets for the past 9 months (I know that isn't the case), that statement was incorrect.

You do see the absurdity of the bolded statement, given "recent history" is the predicate for your long position? You can't have it both ways. Anyway, best of luck ... personally I don't care what gold does.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

I have no opinion on your forecast. None. I was simply commenting on your "recent action being the strongest you've ever seen" comment. Unless you've only followed the precious metals markets for the past 9 months (I know that isn't the case), that statement was incorrect.

You do see the absurdity of the bolded statement, given "recent history" is the predicate for your long position? You can't have it both ways. Anyway, best of luck ... personally I don't care what gold does.

sorry for not bringing you clarity, i like the way its acting between volume and the supply line.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

sorry for not bringing you clarity, i like the way its acting between volume and the supply line.

I think they are shorting it on a move over 1300. One of these moves is going to stick and the shorts covering will drive it higher. One day NK is going to mouth off and we will wake up to a Gap over 1300 and it will run from there. oh wait he mouthed off today

[Parkview_Pirate]

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

I got a sell signal a week or ago. The sp seems to lag my indicator. I am cautious. It could go either way, but down seems the most likely direction.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Went short a bit at 2453.75 on the S&P futes into today's low volume pop. Could go higher and will add a few contracts here and there up to 2464, after which I'd toss in the towel. But I believe the intermediate trend changed to DOWN on August 10th, and still has a week or two left.....

Originally Posted by highnote

I got a sell signal a week or ago. The sp seems to lag my indicator. I am cautious. It could go either way, but down seems the most likely direction.

DOW +195
/NQ +85.50
/ES +26.00

VXX -1.07
XIV +6.18

Isn't the market funny like that?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by barn32

DOW +195
/NQ +85.50
/ES +26.00

VXX -1.07
XIV +6.18

Isn't the market funny like that?

It's a tricky game.

The signal I use is a longer term signal. A sell signal occurs When the Value Line index falls 4% from its most recent high which it did recently.

If it rises 4% from a new recent low then it is a buy signal.

By the way ... you can use other percentages if you want a more sensitive or liberal indicator.

[ReplayRandall]

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..

Low volume but more buyers than sellers.
NYSE up stocks to down stocks ration was something like 5 to 1.

Holiday coming up. End of summer vacay. We will see what September brings. One of the weakest months of the year

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Guess nobody wants to mention what the volume total for the S&P 500 was today.....For a full trading day, it was the lowest in over 5 years at 1,588,713,899......But I'm sure everyone noticed that, right??..

Actually, I did notice that, which was part of the reason I went short a handle off the high yesterday. So far so good, but low volume days can also be pretty volatile when the machines get going. Will probably bank my beer money for the day (+9 handles), and look to go short again on Friday, since it looks like we might see a couple of sideways days.

"Buying the dips" when the intermediate trend is up and "selling the pops" when its down seem to be working this year, but often there are these sideways trends that take days to resolve. It must be killing the day trading market, cause I'm finding swing trades over several days are needed to make money.

I'm looking for a grind in the S&P down to about 2325 over the next few weeks, with potential bottoms at 2410 or 2365. Then we'll see how the IT is playing out.

[PaceAdvantage]

The term "handles" never sat right with me...I know it's been used forever among traders, but who started it and why? LOL

It means POINTS, right? LMAO

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The term "handles" never sat right with me...I know it's been used forever among traders, but who started it and why? LOL

It means POINTS, right? LMAO

Yes, a handle is a point, and I suppose the origin goes back to the agricultural contracts, but I'm not sure of the specifics. I don't know that much of the trading lingo, but ticks and handles are a bit more clear than "point", so I sometimes use those terms. Certainly not to sound too much like a pro, 'cause I ain't one....

BTW - out at 2444.25, for a 9.5 handle/point profit. Don't like the action, and don't want to suffer through sideways bouncing for a couple of days. The problem is when the moves start, they're quick. Very quick.

The bear side of the trade seems awfully crowded these days, which is why I'm careful, but the action over the last few months seems "topping" in nature, and I can't help but think the Fed's rate hike in December and/or balance sheet reduction won't take some of the air out of the cushion that the declines run into.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry, didn't mean to rain on your post...just for whatever reason, the whole handles thing has been a major irritant to me, and I'm basically the only one...lol

Nice trading!

I've stopped posting trades, not because I haven't had any (I've had a LOT in August, and I am currently down less than half my usual risk per trade for the month)....but because it's obviously nothing more than me looking for an ego stroke when I get it right....in other words, it's pointless...lol