Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Isn't picking two pacelines like kissing your sister?

If it is, I don;t wanna know what you're doing with composte numbers!

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Isn't picking two pacelines like kissing your sister?

Heavens NO...It negates sample error..It SUBSTANTIATES any style, energy distribution of reaction to similar paces of race

I see One Race Wonders all the time that NEVER repeat that on outstanding line

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Heavens NO...It negates sample error..

An n of 2 negates sample error? Hardly. It may smooth it somewhat but it doesn't negate it. And unless you have an objective, mechanical method for choosing pacelines you are introducing a version of observational bias into the paceline selection. You see what you want to see.

[Tom]

That is why K Gen was the best Sartin program ever.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by headhawg

An n of 2 negates sample error? Hardly. It may smooth it somewhat but it doesn't negate it. And unless you have an objective, mechanical method for choosing pacelines you are introducing a version of observational bias into the paceline selection. You see what you want to see.

No I see 35 years of results suggesting the conclusions I make.

THE VERY REASON I LEFT the Sartin group was sample error. A suggstion of pace line choice NEVER worked two races in a row and the Follow Up made sure they always posted the "right" one...Retrofitting me thinks.

One of the best two parts that came along was the Long Shot Detector which matched to fastes PACE OF RACE, so you could find a good line to use (but had no idea if it would ever repeat) and the Review screen that was added to the later iterations of Speculator allowing you to mathc MULTIPLE lines (logically) in the match up.

The ange "two lines better than the field," came from that regular use and it was a God sen

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

No I see 35 years of results suggesting the conclusions I make.

THE VERY REASON I LEFT the Sartin group was sample error. A suggstion of pace line choice NEVER worked two races in a row and the Follow Up made sure they always posted the "right" one...Retrofitting me thinks.

One of the best two parts that came along was the Long Shot Detector which matched to fastes PACE OF RACE, so you could find a good line to use (but had no idea if it would ever repeat) and the Review screen that was added to the later iterations of Speculator allowing you to mathc MULTIPLE lines (logically) in the match up.

The ange "two lines better than the field," came from that regular use and it was a God sen

I think there are many ways to view this.

1) A horse has one line far better than all others. Is it more realistic to use one line or more than one? Which one?

2) A horse has all dirt sprint lines and is going to a turf route. Will using two dirt lines be any more revealing than using one?

3) A horse has many layoffs. What line or lines are going to be dependable?

4) On and on.

I use one pace line, but I do look at many composite figures, both of a Sartin nature and other ways, such as speed, pace and class. And, I evaluate my single pace line many different ways. And, I look at changes... distance, trainer, jockey, surface, etc.

But I'm not going to try to tell you that using multiple pace lines is just flat out wrong. I cannot say what works for you.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

The ange "two lines better than the field," came from that regular use and it was a God sen

I still use that 2 lines better than the field to determine whether a low odds favorite is worthy of using solo on top of an exotic wager. It is very effective IMO.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

I still use that 2 lines better than the field to determine whether a low odds favorite is worthy of using solo on top of an exotic wager. It is very effective IMO.

Two lines better in what regard? A specific Sartin factor? Are the lines based on your regular line selection process, so that you would use the two most qualified lines for each horse?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

I still use that 2 lines better than the field to determine whether a low odds favorite is worthy of using solo on top of an exotic wager. It is very effective IMO.

Always worked slihglty better on the grass, but it was one of the stongest angles other than "2nd call maidens" we ever discovred and tested at Sartin Alums.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Two lines better in what regard? A specific Sartin factor? Are the lines based on your regular line selection process, so that you would use the two most qualified lines for each horse?

Rules are augmented/changed based upon YOUR feedback sucess or failure. To be a strict rule follower is to abandon (HOOK LINE AND SINKER) the process of innovation

Howard Sartin QUOTE (that is often forgotten )"THERE ARE NO RULES!"

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Two lines better in what regard? A specific Sartin factor? Are the lines based on your regular line selection process, so that you would use the two most qualified lines for each horse?

I use RDSS these days, but not many of the newer features, I am still in love with Howard's BL/BL. If I use a horse's last line for example and he is way above the other horses in ranking on the BL page, so his odds are for example a 1.0 and the next highest might be a 3.0, I will look at his second or third line back. This can be added by a <control> left click on the additional line in RDSS. Then I look at the rankings on the BL page again, if that horse's two lines are both head and shoulders above the other horses pacelines, then that horse, even at low odds, is a pretty good bet to win. Two lines above the field.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

I use RDSS these days, but not many of the newer features, I am still in love with Howard's BL/BL. If I use a horse's last line for example and he is way above the other horses in ranking on the BL page, so his odds are for example a 1.0 and the next highest might be a 3.0, I will look at his second or third line back. This can be added by a <control> left click on the additional line in RDSS. Then I look at the rankings on the BL page again, if that horse's two lines are both head and shoulders above the other horses pacelines, then that horse, even at low odds, is a pretty good bet to win. Two lines above the field.

Are you looking mostly at the section with the combined rankings of the 7 factors?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Rules are augmented/changed based upon YOUR feedback sucess or failure. To be a strict rule follower is to abandon (HOOK LINE AND SINKER) the process of innovation

Howard Sartin QUOTE (that is often forgotten )"THERE ARE NO RULES!"

So, you form an opinion with absolutely no basis. Okay.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

So, you form an opinion with absolutely no basis. Okay.

Only about 35 years...I was using Phase III when it first came out and was a tester for Guy Wadsworth's iterations during the genesis of Speculator

RECORD KEEPING means one learns from DOING and changes based upon what they have learned...

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Only about 35 years...I was using Phase III when it first came out and was a tester for Guy Wadsworth's iterations during the genesis of Speculator

RECORD KEEPING means one learns from DOING and changes based upon what they have learned...

So you're in a constant state of flux.