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Old 09-11-2009, 12:05 PM   #1
rrbauer
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Something Stinks Here

And, it's not day-old fish.

P4 at Fairplex yesterday, Sept 10. Looks like there were 22 live tickets.

Leadoff race: Pedroza loses on a 3/10 shot while a FTS 65-1 bomb wins the race .
2nd leg: 2nd Fav wins (Pedroza 2nd).
3rd leg: 2nd Fav wins (Pedroza).
4th leg: 2nd Fav wins (Pedroza up the track).

(I targeted Pedroza because of his "king of the bullring" status).


I can see a few people having it, especially from the Bellasis (who is O-forever) barn if they liked their horse; but not 22.
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Old 09-11-2009, 12:07 PM   #2
andymays
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Why would something "stink" in California?


I didn't play yesterday but nothing surprizes me out here anymore!

You can always email Mike Marten of the CHRB and after he's done addressing the million or so complaints from me he will get to you in a couple of years!

Last edited by andymays; 09-11-2009 at 12:10 PM.
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Old 09-11-2009, 12:17 PM   #3
ryesteve
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rrbauer
I can see a few people having it, especially from the Bellasis (who is O-forever) barn if they liked their horse; but not 22.
the P4 came back almost 50% higher than a parlay. Seems pretty generous.
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Old 09-11-2009, 12:18 PM   #4
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You would be surprised how disconnected straight and exotics pools OFTEN are.
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Old 09-11-2009, 12:36 PM   #5
ryesteve
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
You would be surprised how disconnected straight and exotics pools OFTEN are.
But I'm not surprised that you're trying to loop back into the same argument that was covered pretty well here:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=59708
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Old 09-11-2009, 12:50 PM   #6
so.cal.fan
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Fairplex has smaller pools than the other so.cal. tracks.
While favorites win a high percentage, they are overbet to a fault.
The fields are usually only 8 horses which also contribute to the outcome as far as payoffs go.
I know more than one pick six player who pushes the all button in these woefully inconsistent maiden claiming races. Look, young horses that are running in bottom level maiden claimers, have little if any talent.
Same goes for the 5K claiming races. I once owned a filly, who while she was sound, she won a 5K at Fairplex. She ended up running dozens of times in her lifetime and only won 3 races. She broke her maiden at Santa Anita in the lowest (at that time) 32K maiden claiming for 3 and up fillies and mares, cal breds. The next win was at Fairplex for 5K, her next win, if I recall was at a northern california fair for 2K.
In other words, the all button isn't all that crazy to push in these types of races.
Pedroza is overbet. He's a superior rider at Fairplex, so obviously his mounts get more credit than they deserve.
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Old 09-11-2009, 01:33 PM   #7
Tom Barrister
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Parlay should pay a bit over $2,700. Pick-4 pays $3938.

In $1 amounts (my estimates; you may have a different way of calculating it):

Exacta paid $911, should have paid about $850

Quinella paid $470, should have paid about $460.

Trifecta paid $2209, should have paid about $1150.

Superfecta paid $22k, by odds-removal should have paid about $4850.

(If the Super payout looks low, remember that with the 3/10 shot accounted for, the 15-1 shot's chances of beating the rest of the field are much higher than its odds of winning.)

The Pick-3 on the race the favorite won paid $809, parlay would have paid about $610.

I don't see where the betting coup is.
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Old 09-11-2009, 01:33 PM   #8
DJofSD
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As a guess, I would expect the favorites in the win pool would be more highly correlated in the exacta pools, then, as you proceed down the win pool to the higher odds the exactas would correlate less. The first and second favorite in the win pool likely has a very strong correlation if for no other reason people will bet an exacta box using the top two out of the win pool.
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Old 09-12-2009, 10:00 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryesteve
But I'm not surprised that you're trying to loop back into the same argument that was covered pretty well here:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=59708
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Old 09-12-2009, 12:09 PM   #10
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Black?
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Old 09-12-2009, 12:16 PM   #11
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