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Old 05-11-2017, 04:31 PM   #1
PhantomOnTour
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Three year olds vs older

What are you views on 3yr olds facing older runners during the first half of the year? Some are foaled as late as April and are facing older runners when they're barely three calendar years old at the time.

I'm sure some of you have done queries/studies on this...are they at a disadvantage despite weight breaks of up to 7lbs? Do certain race conditions (MSW, MdnClm, Clm, Alw) yield different rates of success?
I tend to shy away from them until at least June, but haven't actually done any research on the topic.
Just fishing for info I guess, any input would be appreciated.

Thx
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Old 05-11-2017, 04:34 PM   #2
lamboguy
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3 year olds have a big edge in msw and nw2 alowance races. in claiming conditions its about equal. in open races you always want the older horse.
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Old 05-11-2017, 05:02 PM   #3
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It is not a secret that 3yo are in a disadvantage when they compete against open companies. This fundamental doctrine is also reflected very well in the conditions of the races who always favor the younger horses who carry less weight than their rivals.

What is important though is that the crowd tends to overestimate the chances of this type of runners creating some overlays among them. The trick is to use other factors in order to spot those who are going to win and eliminate the losers!
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:16 PM   #4
HandiTrack
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I always favor older until a 3yo has a win against older, then I consider them equals on that plane.
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:23 AM   #5
cnollfan
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I think the race conditions that allow three year olds with more lifetime wins than older horses favor the winning three year olds. These conditions have become quite popular in recent years at some tracks.
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Old 05-17-2017, 10:58 AM   #6
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The 3yo vs older discussion only matters at the most elite levels with the top .001 percent of horses.

its not a factor for handicapping the other 99.9 percent of the races that don't have the worlds greats in that race.
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Old 05-19-2017, 02:52 PM   #7
Thomas Roulston
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On the NYRA circuit anyway, 3-year-olds used to get a bigger weight break in 3-and-up races than they do now; in March, it was 3-year-olds, 113 lbs. and older 126 lbs. (!), in April, 3-year-olds 113 lbs. and older 124 lbs., in May, 3-year-olds 113 lbs. and older 122 lbs., then up the line for 3-year-olds to December when it was 3-year-olds 120 and older 122.

Right now, in May, it's 3-year-olds 119 lbs. and older 124 lbs. - a difference of 5 lbs. instead of 9 (this is in sprints; in routes the difference is a pound or two more).

Obviously this is an issue in determining who has the edge.
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Old 05-29-2017, 02:05 PM   #8
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In maiden & non winners of two lifetime, I question why a 4 year old or older is still eligible for the conditions. I had this burned on stone about 6 months ago when I had singled a lightly raced horse with a big figure and small price as my single in a pic 3. The horse was leading in the stretch & broke down. Upon reviewing his record, I noticed that he usually had a layoff after each race. IMO the horse was unsound & maybe should not have been racing. My bad for betting it.
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Old 05-29-2017, 04:06 PM   #9
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Conditions plus best older with best 3 yo.
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