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04-17-2020, 10:51 AM
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#1921
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Let me get the current market straight: bad earnings news can all be ignored, while good news, or less bad than expected, can be a positive? Seems to be the thinking. Too many companies are going to be getting free passes.
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04-17-2020, 10:52 AM
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#1922
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,623
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Weren't bad earnings news baked in during the initial drop?
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04-17-2020, 10:53 AM
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#1923
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Weren't bad earnings news baked in during the initial drop?
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Not fully, IMO. Guidance, for those that give it, keeps coming down. A lot of it is complete guesswork, as its totally unchartered waters.
Last edited by Valuist; 04-17-2020 at 10:55 AM.
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04-17-2020, 11:53 AM
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#1924
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
I've followed Master Card for a long time. My single most profitable stock in the past 10 years. A stop loss triggered a sale out of half my position back in late Feb. On one hand, I see consumers paying less and less with cash and getting levered up heavily in debt. OTOH, can't help but believe all discretionary purchases will be down significantly for several years. I would be very leery of shorting either MA or V, however. On good days, they are spring loaded.
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yes...people will be loading up on their cards...
and then the bankruptcies will be rolling in afterwards......
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04-17-2020, 05:07 PM
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#1925
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
Mike, is that a fundamental idea
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Yes, too much exposure to small and medium size businesses, some of whom may not ever come back.
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04-18-2020, 11:02 PM
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#1926
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Right now, the S & P is trading at 17 times LAST YEAR'S earnings. So basically, if there was no coronavirus, no lockdowns, and unemployment was where it was two months ago, the market would still be expensive. Now figure a complete destruction of earnings. Now it could be trading 35 times, 50 or 75 times current years earnings. After this bear market rally subsides, there's a long way to go in reverse. We will retest the lows, IMO.
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04-18-2020, 11:58 PM
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#1927
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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for the year, the nasdaq is trading at the highs for the year. its hard to believe!
in the S+P model, you have the very strongest stocks in it, MSFT, GOOG, NFLX, AMZN etc. those company's are all hiring more people now than before the shutdown. that's probably why you might want to short individual equities as opposed to an index.
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04-19-2020, 06:32 AM
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#1928
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
for the year, the nasdaq is trading at the highs for the year. its hard to believe!
in the S+P model, you have the very strongest stocks in it, MSFT, GOOG, NFLX, AMZN etc. those company's are all hiring more people now than before the shutdown. that's probably why you might want to short individual equities as opposed to an index.
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Highest of the year-hard to believe?? Less than two months ago, it was at 9800+ points. Sitting at 8600+ points close of Friday.
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04-19-2020, 07:31 AM
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#1929
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
Highest of the year-hard to believe?? Less than two months ago, it was at 9800+ points. Sitting at 8600+ points close of Friday.
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sorry about that, i read the 9 as an 8. thats what happens sometimes when you try to read a screen without glasses.
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04-19-2020, 10:42 AM
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#1930
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
for the year, the nasdaq is trading at the highs for the year. its hard to believe!
in the S+P model, you have the very strongest stocks in it, MSFT, GOOG, NFLX, AMZN etc. those company's are all hiring more people now than before the shutdown. that's probably why you might want to short individual equities as opposed to an index.
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I agree with your point about shorting indiividual names, as opposed to indexes.
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04-20-2020, 06:58 AM
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#1932
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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the story of the day is that oil is no longer a teenager, trading in high 12's now, i guess its heading for single digits now.
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04-20-2020, 11:24 PM
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#1933
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Futures are suggesting we might be starting to dive back towards testing that low....Time is getting short for crashing the market before POTUS reopens the country….Boom, boom, boom it's going to happen, no doubt.
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04-21-2020, 10:53 AM
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#1934
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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i have the s+P going to 2641 for now. with all these big swings, the projections seem to be working.
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04-23-2020, 12:27 PM
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#1935
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the story of the day is that oil is no longer a teenager, trading in high 12's now, i guess its heading for single digits now.
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Mr. lamb-oil-guy, what do you think about oil now? Lower, or was that a bottom? Do you think these bumps are a trap? I'm avoiding the oil funds for now, just playing three big oil companies, figuring they know it a whole better than me.
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