TLG's Saratoga ROI

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by Jay Trotter

I've looked high and low to find Light's posted selections and corresponding ROI with no luck! Please point me in the right direction if I've simply missed them.

I didn't have any luck, either, but I did find the Bobblehead he won:

[Steve 'StatMan']

Originally Posted by badcompany

I didn't have any luck, either, but I did find the Bobblehead he won:

Ah, but would he still have won that Bobblehead if he had to make his contest selections 24+ hours in advance?

I got an Early Fires and Bonnie The Bugler Bobbleheads just for entering contests at AP in the past.

[docicu3]

You can't bet (or force an opinion) on every race of a NY card day in and day out and expect to make money. Andy has come a long way these last couple years and should be applauded for it. The number and value of LS's he gave out during Saratoga this summer was at times simply brilliant. If you listen to what he says...."It's not about picking the most winners it's about finding value" you'll see the method to his madness. Sometimes I wish he would tell the public how many races he passes on a card but NYRA would frown.

The only public capper who rivals the guy is Byk and I challenge anyone to match his run of the last 3 years with multi race results.

[Tom]

Somebody turn out this light!
He STILL has no clue what this thread was all about , and judging from his post, he never will. This guy like to hear himself type.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Tom

Somebody turn out this light!

No! If this thread had been locked when it should have been, we never would've gotten the best quote ever: "Just so you don't assume I'm totally ignorant, I've won bobbleheads!"

I think PA should force him to use that as a sig line...

[cj]

Originally Posted by Light

As far as my accomplishments,its irrelevant. I am not a public handicapper nor are my picks(when I post them) implied to be bet. If you'd like to know,just so you dont assume I'm totally ignorant,I dont think anyone has won more in handicapping prizes on this board than me. I've won books, bobbleheads,T shirts and cash from this site,not to mention winning a 4 month NYRA pk4 contest with no prizes. There. Impressed? But I dont give a hoot about my accomplishments here, OK. This has nothing to do with me.

...

I assume you realize your statement about betting all favorites coming real close to losing 7% is ridiculous since you didn't respond.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I can imagine it now:

<TV Video & music graphic for the "6th Race Preview with Black Box Bob">

Black Box Bob: "In the 6th race today, I like the 7, 2, 1 and 5. I don't know or care about the distance, surface, horse's trips, jockeys or trainers. My Black Box just said 7, 2, 1 and 5. That's all I need to know. And now you know.

We'll see you later before the 7th Race. I'm Black Box Bob."

<video of the post parade>

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Light

This has nothing to do with me.

You could have fooled me ( and everyone else here ).

[illinoisbred]

Who wants a race analyst giving out a lot of winners? Not me.

[cmoore]

I agree 100% Light...

62 of 83 wins paid under 10 bucks..22 paid under even money. Now that's just BRILLIANT!!!!!

Originally Posted by Light

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to scratches,
we would see his greatness. That assumption is not necessarily true. There are several times TLG scratched into a win that raised his ROI. Works both ways.

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to the tote, selective betting would raise his ROI. You dont know that. He picked alot of chalk on top. Yes at times he tries to beat the chalk but not always. Like alot of us he goes with the chalk when he feels it's a lock which doesn't always work out. Of his 83 wins, 62 of them paid under $10. 22 of them paid under even money. He'd have to sit chilly for most of the meet if we believed this crap.

There is the assumption that if TLG would only play the races he liked,his ROI would be higher. That again is not necessarily true. Just because you dont like a race doen't mean you can't pick it. The times I've tried handicapping a race I thought impossible,I've been surprised how I would of had a mega payout and the races I thought I would crush ended up crushing me.Everything is not black and white.

Stop making excuses for the guy. Until I see any or all of these assumptions proved in reality from him, he will always be a hyped handicapper to me. TLG still denies the results I posted of his picks yet says he doesn't keep track of his ROI. That's because losers do not keep track of their ROI,winners do. Losers don't want to know their ROI and I don't blame them.

Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that. Because betting all favorites can come real close to that without handicapping.WTF is so special about that? This guy has one job and that is to handicap one track, gets paid to do it and has all the resources and time and insight to do it and still can't meet his advertised "greatness".

[Light]

If you must know about the precious bobblehead, it was a Jerry Bailey bobblehead I recieved in the PA downs contest in which I also recieved $75 cash for my final standing. I should have won the grand prize because my final bet was a 20-1 ML Mnr invader that got bet down to 2-1. Guess what. We're all in TLG's shoes, OK? Or I should say he is in our shoes. He's not the only guy who gets a bum rap with the tote or scratches.

BTW,I dont get this thing about how TLG doesn't have the scratches when he handicaps.His show is on AFTER the NYRA scratches are posted. He only doesn't have scratches like the rest of us,from very late scratches or changes so stop babying him. He's a big boy now.

I'd like to ask all those who says TLG helps them, to demonstrate that BEFORE a race. Tell us how TLG's analysis is helping you pick the race. Then pick the race and we'll be the judge of the fruits of watching TLG. The times I've watched him and I have a horse I really like,he doesn't even mention him,like the TVG dudes who are often oblivious. And its not like some real longshot. So his analysis itself is lacking.

Originally Posted by CJ

I assume you realize your statement about betting all favorites coming real close to losing 7% is ridiculous since you didn't respond.

I didn't think it required a response but if you insist. I would consider losing 7% with handicapping to losing 17% (betting favorites) without handicapping to be pretty equivalent. Add some handicapping to the side betting the favs like throwing out real obvious false favorites and you'll probably be real close.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by Zaf

unbelievably anal

Hey, that's my favorite film. .

[Jay Trotter]

Light, I don't believe any of us are intimating that "we are all that and a bag of chips too" when it comes to handicapping. What raises concern is your continual bashing without putting up!

So, why don't you show us what you have and post your plays in a similar fashion to the way TLG must operate -- posting early, adjusting live and playing every race. We'll even let you keep score since you like it so much!

Start with Wednesday's card. Time to put up or shut up!


ps. I once won a mini-putt tournament but when I showed up to take on Nicklaus I was laughed at! I still don't understand why!

Originally Posted by Light

I'd like to ask all those who says TLG helps them, to demonstrate that BEFORE a race. Tell us how TLG's analysis is helping you pick the race. Then pick the race and we'll be the judge of the fruits of watching TLG. The times I've watched him and I have a horse I really like,he doesn't even mention him,like the TVG dudes who are often oblivious. And its not like some real longshot. So his analysis itself is lacking.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by cmoore

I agree 100% Light...

62 of 83 wins paid under 10 bucks..22 paid under even money. Now that's just BRILLIANT!!!!!

I originally thought that this was defective math, but don't forget --- these are overlapping fields. The odds-on are 22 of the 62.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by Jay Trotter

Light, I don't believe any of us are intimating that "we are all that and a bag of chips too" when it comes to handicapping. What raises concern is your continual bashing without putting up!

Light has no obligation to prove his handicapping acumen. His bashing is less nauseous than all the cyber-bobblehead for Andy, which does him no favors.

You are indeed intimating that Andy is "all that," and Light is rebutting that view.

For the umpteenth time, I advise you to blame the thread starter.