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Old 04-27-2017, 12:08 PM   #1
PhantomOnTour
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Bel Fri Race R8 - 100k Affirmed Success Stks

A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
- underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
- loves Bel, can run late for a piece
- classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX:w
WIN: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?
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Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 04-27-2017 at 12:09 PM.
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Old 04-27-2017, 05:23 PM   #2
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I also like the #11, but do not think the odds are going to be good enough to bet on.
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Old 04-27-2017, 06:23 PM   #3
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There's about a dozen ways to go here, but I'm most interested in Ostrolenka. I think this is what they were thinking when they put down $62,500 and I think that they claimed a pretty nice horse that will run huge if everything goes his way. And this looks like a race that - barring it falling apart with scratches - should play to his strengths and give him a good chance at having it his way. I'm a little afraid that he turns into a bit of a wiseguy play or something and don't really trust him to be at 5-1 with his great back form at Belmont prior to the two most recent show, but he realistically should be every bit the 6-1 morning line. And I think he's tough to pass by, even if to dabble in key horse exotics, if he's just a contender among several on the tote when it closes.
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Old 04-27-2017, 11:47 PM   #4
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There is plenty of speed in the race, which should ensure an honest pace. I started with 8 of the 13 horses being considered.

Eye Luv Lulu interests me some. The up side - he's had some success at BEL. The down side - he looks like a horse that loves a wet track but is so-so on a dry track.

Marriedtothemusic looks like one of the speed horses, but I don't think he's quite as talented as some of the other front runners.

Rectify looks like the speed of the speed, but he doesn't show a lot of affinity for BEL. I can see him in a back hole

Ostrolenka might be the most frustrating horse for me. However, he loves Belmont, and the trainer change to DJ can't hurt. He's got a couple of down sides. He doesn't seem to care much for winning at the 6F distance, and in 11 starts this year and last, he only has one win. But, I think he'll be one of the value horses. A little ambiguous, but bettable.

Celtic Chaos is one of those plodding sprinters, but he is experienced at the distance. If the race breaks down, he looks like the beneficiary.

West Hills Giant doesn't look like quite the equal in price level, but he has a tendency to finish in the money a lot, and he's been in the money at this level. I'd consider him in the verticals.

Candid Desire was in great shape on the inner, and was pretty effective in state-bred stakes. He's another value prospect.

I'd like Weekend Hideaway a lot more from a better post, but at BEL the outside isn't as huge a disadvantage. He's got plenty of tactical speed and has an affinity for BEL and the distance. The tepid choice.

So the predicted handicapping order:








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Old 04-28-2017, 03:06 AM   #5
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The inside 3 horses are 'commons' (1 and 2 common owned) and 2 and 3 ('common ridden')so not likely to be any kind of duel.

I like what halv mentioned on the 3, no affinity for Bel, I'm not going to get sucked into inner specialists at short prices.
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Old 04-28-2017, 08:02 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by EasyGoer89 View Post
The inside 3 horses are 'commons' (1 and 2 common owned) and 2 and 3 ('common ridden')so not likely to be any kind of duel.

I like what halv mentioned on the 3, no affinity for Bel, I'm not going to get sucked into inner specialists at short prices.
What the heck, I will. Sticking to basics I'll toss the 13. Prices may allow a dutch but listed in order of my preference.

Eye Luv Lulu (NY) 6/G L P Lopez 118 R R Rodriguez 5/1
Rectify (NY) 5/H L J L Ortiz 118 C Baker 6/1
Marriedtothemusic (NY) 7/G L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 R R Rodriguez 6/1

Maybe saving a bit of ground is as important at Belmont as it is on the inner.

Sudden Surprise (NY) 4/G L J Castellano 124 T A Pletcher 12/1

A price backup consideration. SS could go and stay as easily as I expect Marriedtothemusic to do. T Pletcher sending a late developer to improve here might be worth a look.

Belmont is back, GL today.
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Old 04-28-2017, 11:15 AM   #7
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I also like the #11, but do not think the odds are going to be good enough to bet on.
I agree...more likely in the 9-2 range or even lower

*sad note about Affirmed Success, the race's namesake...went to the Kentucky Horse Park in 2006 and saw him...not in the Hall of Champions (i guess he was never a champion), but in the area where they displayed all different horse breeds. His stall was tiny and it hurt to see him there looking so sad.
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Old 04-28-2017, 11:24 AM   #8
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Picking the winner of this race is harder than picking the Derby winner, if all go. I'm guessing that Weekend Hideaway will find a way.
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Old 04-28-2017, 05:13 PM   #9
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2

race is too tough for me (made a fun bet in the NYRA thread)

2 is on fire on the board, and i like the thinking behind the 2.

11 is on fire on the board and I don't like the thinking behind this one. Matter of fact.... the 4-ostrastinka surprised me last time with a visually improved effort and competes for similar board spots as the 11(unless 11 is wayyyy improved)
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Old 04-28-2017, 05:24 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Murph View Post
What the heck, I will. Sticking to basics I'll toss the 13. Prices may allow a dutch but listed in order of my preference.

Eye Luv Lulu (NY) 6/G L P Lopez 118 R R Rodriguez 5/1
Rectify (NY) 5/H L J L Ortiz 118 C Baker 6/1
Marriedtothemusic (NY) 7/G L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 R R Rodriguez 6/1

Maybe saving a bit of ground is as important at Belmont as it is on the inner.

Sudden Surprise (NY) 4/G L J Castellano 124 T A Pletcher 12/1

A price backup consideration. SS could go and stay as easily as I expect Marriedtothemusic to do. T Pletcher sending a late developer to improve here might be worth a look.

Belmont is back, GL today.
Missed here by a head! Very frustrating because I feel like I had this one capped properly. Maybe not.
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Old 04-28-2017, 05:25 PM   #11
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WOW!!!

Thanks @phantomontour What a race call. I'm sitting here in a work truck bored to death, so I figured I would play your picks. Through my own stupidity or just plain dumb luck I got the full ride on that exacta. Went a dollar front and back lol. Thanks for sharing!
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Old 04-28-2017, 05:30 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
- underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
- loves Bel, can run late for a piece
- classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX:w
WIN: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?

Very good call Phantom !!!
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Old 04-28-2017, 06:29 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
- underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
- loves Bel, can run late for a piece
- classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX:w
WIN: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?
Very nice!
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Old 04-29-2017, 12:00 AM   #14
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Alright! Just did get my win price requirement at 7-1...last to first move, barely up at the wire, whew
Thanks for the kudos y'all

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-George Peppard of The A Team
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